Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

And ofc the 12z GEFS doesn't resemble the op run for the same period where it tried to bury a deep trough into the SW. HL ridge bridge too.

GEPS remains mint too

[Ji]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

GEPS remains mint too

at some point the mint on the map has to end up as white on the grass

[cbmclean]

Just now, CAPE said:

And ofc the 12z GEFS doesn't resemble the op run for the same period where it tried to bury a deep trough into the SW. HL ridge bridge too.

I think Ralph might object to the WAR.  

Seriously though, is there a reason that WAR wouldn't be a problem?  The -NAO isn't really a block there, just a Greenland heat dome.

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

at some point the mint on the map has to end up as white on the grass

you need to start here first. you know this

[cbmclean]

46 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

719

Is that an angel number?

[Ji]

3 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Is that an angel number?

this is snowfall forecast by month starting in January

[CAPE]

19 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

I think Ralph might object to the WAR.  

Seriously though, is there a reason that WAR wouldn't be a problem?  The -NAO isn't really a block there, just a Greenland heat dome.

The WAR was there from when the trough was initially positioned out west. Those +heights were absorbed into the NAO ridge as the trough shifted east, and Ralph's phobia is dissipating, so not a problem. Not technically a block at that point.

[nj2va]

21 minutes ago, Alfoman said:

What would it take to bring this south and maybe turn it into a Miller B transfer in a favorable spot for the MA for next weekend?

The term Miller B is banned here. 

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, nj2va said:

The term Miller B is banned here. 

I prefer Miller Lite 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

29 minutes ago, Alfoman said:

What would it take to bring this south and maybe turn it into a Miller B transfer in a favorable spot for the MA for next weekend?

M

Move the trough east by about 400-500 miles haha!

[Terpeast]

6 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Move the trough east by about 400-500 miles haha!

Very possible at D7-8

[Alfoman]

19 minutes ago, nj2va said:

The term Miller B is banned here. 

Still new to what's favorable for the MA region but should have known better than the B-word.

[dallen7908]

GFS shows a parade of storms - Drought may be over. 

Storm 1: Sat-Sun

Storm 2: Tues-Wed

Storm 3: Sat

Storm 4 Tue

Storm 5 Sat - that's the one currently "forecast" to give us low-landers snow. 

 

[baltosquid]

Euro trended south for next weekend as well.

[Ji]

Euro almost pulled it off

[NorthArlington101]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

Euro almost pulled it off

We're about 2 days away from being teased for 2 days before it slips away and gives Winchester 2" of snow and Boston 2' of snow

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, cbmclean said:

Is that an angel number?

Days since DC has an inch of snow. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Even though models pinch the Pacific ridge into -EPO/-WPO, it's still a -PNA pattern, and a strong one at that. You guys should really run the composites for -NAO's lately and the -PNA patterns that have happened at the same time. I think +NAO/+PNA is correlating too. GEFS by day 15-16 is really starting to warm things up here, with the NW trough trying to retrograde into +EPO, which happens sometimes after big blocking episodes. +300dm Aleutian island ridge on the mean. -PNA pattern

https://ibb.co/fHQdLDL

[pazzo83]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Days since DC has an inch of snow. 

we'd have to end the season without 1" to break the record (set only 10 yrs ago) - but everyone else has blown the doors off their records.

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

You know the last time we got big snow was around the January 20th timeframe.

Yep, and the antecedent airmass was exactly what PSU described using the fantasy range of the 12z gfs. I remember it being sufficientlyrics cold that week, barely making it out of the mid 30s!

[brooklynwx99]

this will work. HL blocking is insane

[brooklynwx99]

that's in the far medium range, too. far from fantasy

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Since its been so long...just for reference...

This is what we want the antecedent airmass to look like as a wave comes at us

NOT THIS

It was closer to an even bigger event if the NS would have phased in.  But the setup was nice...way too far out to know if the GFS is even close.  I would like to see the ensembles start to show this discreet wave with a bit more clarity over the next couple days.  They picked up on this current wave from like day 15 which was amazing.  I don't expect that...but we want to see some hints at this on the ensembles soon.  

This look fits the airmass prior to our last blizzard almost exactly. I remember that whole week it was quite cold barely making it out of the mid 30s. That's closer to "the look", no?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this will work. HL blocking is insane

A lot of snow for all the insane HL blocking the last 2 Winter's. That N. Pacific -PNA region is really a dominant pattern at this point in time. And the -NAO has a SE ridge correlation since 18-19, and really going back to 2013. 

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

A lot of snow for all the insane HL blocking the last 2 Winter's. That N. Pacific -PNA region is really a dominant pattern at this point in time. And the -NAO has a SE ridge correlation since 18-19, and really going back to 2013. 

the -NAO does not correlate to a SE ridge overall. the months with the strongest -NAOs often have a SE trough

[dallen7908]

15 minutes ago, Ji said:

Euro almost pulled it off

Yes, that storm track and area covered would be a dream come true for New England.  It's been a brutal winter for the nordic resorts.  Many of which have been closed since just before XMAS.  Some never opened.  Bretton Woods hasn't opened yet.   Bolton Valley had early storms but never got around to laying down tracks and then ... Jackson, Mt. Van Hoevenberg, and Craftsbury have a few kms open - all man-made snow. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the -NAO does not correlate to a SE ridge overall. the months with the strongest -NAOs often have a SE trough

Lately, in the mature part of a -PNA cycle, the correlation has been there. Not overall though yeah. It should be noted that the -PNA cycle began when the AMO went +.

[mattie g]

10 minutes ago, dallen7908 said:

Yes, that storm track and area covered would be a dream come true for New England.  It's been a brutal winter for the nordic resorts.  Many of which have been closed since just before XMAS.  Some never opened.  Bretton Woods hasn't opened yet.   Bolton Valley had early storms but never got around to laying down tracks and then ... Jackson, Mt. Van Hoevenberg, and Craftsbury have a few kms open - all man-made snow. 

Congrats, New England.

[Ji]

24 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this will work. HL blocking is insane

we need the NAO to be more west based

[frd]

21 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this will work. HL blocking is insane

 

 

For illustrative purposes only,  but that insane HL blocking regime going across Northern Canada would most likely result ( if correctly modeled) a snow pattern that would run West to East at a fairly lower lattitude. 

Something like this possibly.