Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming

[nj2va]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

End of the latest EPS run-

Latest Euro Weeklies- the pattern progression through the mid Jan period.

Go ahead and freak out about the latest GEFS runs, even though the advertised pattern progression doesn't align with Nino forcing, and looks more Nina like. I'll go with the higher res/better track record of the Euro on this one. Could be wrong. My guess is that those who think the GEFS is more  correct are predisposed  to expecting the worst case scenario.

Apparently it’s easier for everyone to freak out and claim it will never snow ever again. 

[clskinsfan]

5 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Apparently it’s easier for everyone to freak out and claim it will never snow ever again. 

I dont think any of us are saying that. What we may be saying is that nickle and dime snows may very well be a thing of the past. And we either get bombs or we get squat. And that alone is a scary thing to face.

[psuhoffman]

54 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Yeah, I’ve been following those pointed questions and the radio silence that followed. 

Why don’t they just come right out and say it’s virtually impossible? 

Maybe they’re afraid that mother nature will throw yet another curveball that catches them with their pants down. 

I mean, come on. I’d have a lot more respect for them if they put forth their own winter outlooks at the risk of getting it wrong. And own it.

Agreed.  I just called out someone in this thread that loves to criticize without making any forecasts themselves.  I hate that. Get in the ring if you want to play the game!  
 

on topic…It is possible the pacific flips again.  I do think some of this is cyclical. I also think some is not. This year will be telling wrt how screwed we are for the duration of the current pacific cycle.  We’ve proven that in a Nina/neutral it’s pretty bad.
 

The next test will be what happens when we get the next favorable pdo cycle. I noted before that those have been degrading also and the last confluence of a positive PAC/Atl cycle we got in the 2000s wasn’t nearly as productive wrt snow south of 40 as the previous 2 were. How much does that trend continue?  We will have to wait on that one. 

[Rhino16]

2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I dont think any of us are saying that. What we may be saying is that nickle and dime snows may very well be a thing of the past. And we either get bombs or we get squat. And that alone is a scary thing to face.

Is that not a typical Niño year around here anyways?

[clskinsfan]

Just now, Rhino16 said:

Is that not a typical Niño year around here anyways?

"Around here" is a imby term man. No its not typical imby. Not at all. 

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I dont think any of us are saying that. What we may be saying is that nickle and dime snows may very well be a thing of the past. And we either get bombs or we get squat. And that alone is a scary thing to face.

There was a time not long ago when some in here COMPLAINED when all the snow melted too fast!  LOL!!!

[Terpeast]

15 minutes ago, CAPE said:

End of the latest EPS run-

Latest Euro Weeklies- the pattern progression through the mid Jan period.

Go ahead and freak out about the latest GEFS runs, even though the advertised pattern progression doesn't align with Nino forcing, and looks more Nina like. I'll go with the higher res/better track record of the Euro on this one. Could be wrong. My guess is that those who think the GEFS is more correct are predisposed to expecting the worst case scenario.

End of both EPS and GEFS runs don’t look that different to me. Both have a -nao and a bit of a broad -pna trough that isn’t terribly warm anywhere in NA except well NE closer to the nao block. Yes, the trough is more tilted SW (as expected with a -pdo) but it’s not a shut the blinds look. Both show a mild warmup over a few days after the Jan 7-8 system, but overall much colder in canada and conus than this week

[Jebman]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

For years now from time to time I leave the same question to the “warminista” members who often take over in the main threads. “So what would you want to see to predict a cold/snowy winter in the mid Atlantic”. I get one of two replies…silence, or some ridiculous list of variables that it’s unlikely we ever get them all lined up. 
 

What I’ve realized is what they’re actually implying is it’s almost impossible, given the pacific cycle we are in combined with “that which shall not be named” for us to get a true cold/snowy winter. Given the last 8 years there is ample evidence they could be right. Maybe we just don’t want to admit it. As I’ve said this winter is the test. If the current enso can’t counterbalance the various hostile pacific factors we’ve discussed we’re pretty much F’d.  Especially since there is also ample evidence those pacific influences aren’t all random but somewhat linked to “that which won’t be named”. 

This, is one of the leading reasons I have become a deb, lmao. (But not in this topic, lol)

The man is the voice of reason.

[Ji]

Just now, clskinsfan said:

"Around here" is a imby term man. No its not typical imby. Not at all. 

i wouldnt give up hope. We just had a historic precip month some part of the Nino is working right. Now we just wait and see what happens when the eventual cold air arrives.

If i had to guess now

I say we have several snow events this year.....2 will be double digit. Not sure how high the double digits are but that will determine the epicness of our winter

[Ji]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

There was a time not long ago when some in here COMPLAINED when all the snow melted too fast!  LOL!!!

i dont care about snowcover...i like it while its snowing but the day after...i dont care that much about it. I like the day its snowing and the days leading up to the storm where your imagination can go wild. after the storm....is just depressing for me

[NorthArlington101]

i dont care about snowcover...i like it while its snowing but the day after...i dont care that much about it. I like the day its snowing and the days leading up to the storm where your imagination can go wild. after the storm....is just depressing for me

I think we’re kindred spirits. That’s probably bad news

[Ji]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I think we’re kindred spirits. That’s probably bad news

yep...hopefully you can recover from realizing this. I will one up you though...i hate sunny days with a passion. Sun depression. Clouds energizes me. I dont think anyone can match that lol

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

End of both EPS and GEFS runs don’t look that different to me. Both have a -nao and a bit of a broad -pna trough that isn’t terribly warm anywhere in NA except wel NE closer to the nao block. Yes, the trough is more tilted SW (as expected with a -pdo) but it’s not a shut the blinds look. Both show a mild warmup over a few days after the Jan 7-8 system

The 12z (and now the 18z is even worse!) GEFS backed off on the nao and has a weaker east based -nao. It also backed off slightly and retrograded all the features in the PAC. Those are subtle things and well within normal error for that range but that can be the difference for us.  I think the geps/eps interpretation would significantly increase our chances of snow.  

I have no interest in trying to make this work…

We’ve played that game way too often with the same result.  Frankly the gefs looks way too similar to how the long range has looked a lot over the last 8 years. If the long wave nuances of the gefs are correct I fully expect that SER to trend worse and become a big problem.  Late Jan and Feb 2019 we saw how a weak east based nao was not workable in that pacific look. 
 

I agree with cape out best bet is to say its just wrong. That pacific look is basically saying F off Nino you’re not denting my base state. 

[NorthArlington101]

yep...hopefully you can recover from realizing this. I will one up you though...i hate sunny days with a passion. Sun depression. Clouds energizes me. I dont think anyone can match that lol

yeah I like the sun at least, lol.

[Ji]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The 12z (and now the 18z is even worse!) GEFS backed off on the nao and has a weaker east based -nao. It also backed off slightly and retrograded all the features in the PAC. Those are subtle things and well within normal error for that range but that can be the difference for us.  I think the geps/eps interpretation would significantly increase our chances of snow.  

I have no interest in trying to make this work…

We’ve played that game way too often with the same result.  Frankly the gefs looks way too similar to how the long range has looked a lot over the last 8 years. If the long wave nuances of the gefs are correct I fully expect that SER to trend worse and become a big problem.  Late Jan and Feb 2019 we saw how a weak east based nao was not workable in that pacific look. 
 

I agree with cape out best bet is to say its just wrong. That pacific look is basically saying F off Nino you’re not denting my base state. 

well you have been honking for a mid montth warm up..so here you go!

[Ji]

A true nino is suppose to be really bad for the west. I remember one winter...we were having an epic Nino and they had no snow(I think it was in Western Canada) for the Olympics....like literally not one natural inch of snow and they were in a full blown panic

[DarkSharkWX]

26 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Did 2016 have a period in early January where a NPAC ridge threw a wrench in things?

ETA: I meant ridge, not trough.

not as it seems but this looks somewhat similar to the period we're having in mid jan w/ the western trough dumping, happened right before the KU and slid under the block

[nj2va]

20 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I dont think any of us are saying that. What we may be saying is that nickle and dime snows may very well be a thing of the past. And we either get bombs or we get squat. And that alone is a scary thing to face.

I was exaggerating…I just don’t get the doom and gloom at December 28.  Yes it sucks we haven’t had an area wide storm yet but I remain confident we’ll get snow this winter.  We are literally a week into actual winter, lol.  

[BristowWx]

7 minutes ago, Ji said:

yep...hopefully you can recover from realizing this. I will one up you though...i hate sunny days with a passion. Sun depression. Clouds energizes me. I dont think anyone can match that lol

I was angry all day Christmas once the sun broke through.  Fog makes me happy…sunny days make me sad.  I watch for CAD even if it doesn’t mean frozen on the models just for the maritime flow. I live in the wrong place.  

[brooklynwx99]

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The 12z (and now the 18z is even worse!) GEFS backed off on the nao and has a weaker east based -nao. It also backed off slightly and retrograded all the features in the PAC. Those are subtle things and well within normal error for that range but that can be the difference for us.  I think the geps/eps interpretation would significantly increase our chances of snow.  

I have no interest in trying to make this work…

We’ve played that game way too often with the same result.  Frankly the gefs looks way too similar to how the long range has looked a lot over the last 8 years. If the long wave nuances of the gefs are correct I fully expect that SER to trend worse and become a big problem.  Late Jan and Feb 2019 we saw how a weak east based nao was not workable in that pacific look. 
 

I agree with cape out best bet is to say its just wrong. That pacific look is basically saying F off Nino you’re not denting my base state. 

i wouldn’t really worry about the 384 hr GEFS when the EPS and GEPS are so different. regardless, that ridge is still transient

[clskinsfan]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

A true nino is suppose to be really bad for the west. I remember one winter...we were having an epic Nino and they had no snow(I think it was in Western Canada) for the Olympics....like literally not one natural inch of snow and they were in a full blown panic

We are supposed to have a sustained Aleutian low. I dont even know how to forecast anymore. I feel horrible for people have to do this shit for a living. Everything is all f'ed up man. 

[Ji]

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

We are supposed to have a sustained Aleutian low. I dont even know how to forecast anymore. I feel horrible for people have to do this shit for a living. Everything is all f'ed up man. 

the only thing that is sustained is warmth, redskins suckage and joe bastardi

[psuhoffman]

14 minutes ago, Ji said:

well you have been honking for a mid montth warm up..so here you go!

 

10 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said:

not as it seems but this looks somewhat similar to the period we're having in mid jan w/ the western trough dumping, happened right before the KU and slid under the block

@JiThe geps and eps follow what I envisioned and seem “on course”. The GEFS has gone off the rails.  Let’s just say (hope) it’s probably wrong.  I’m not interested in sugar coating that ish. 
@DarkSharkWX the difference between 2016 and the gefs is the central pac.  I truly think it’s wrong. I really do. So take this next sentence with that perspective in mind. 
 

However…if (huge if) in a week everything has trended towards that progression and we’re looking at a muted nao and a raging Nina looking central pac ridge with coupled pna/SER…I was wrong and it’s game over. 

[clskinsfan]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

the only thing that is sustained is warmth, redskins suckage and joe bastardi

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i wouldn’t really worry about the 384 hr GEFS when the EPS and GEPS are so different. regardless, that ridge is still transient

I’m not. I think it’s wrong. But I disagree with the attempts to sugar coat that gefs run. It’s not heading anywhere good. The pattern is actually retrograding away from anything workable at the end and the central pac ridge  is going ape.  I agree it’s likely wrong. I disagree that if it’s right it’s not a disaster. It is. Just hope it’s wrong. We’ve read that exact book many times and the last page never changes. 
 

 

[CAPE]

14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The 12z (and now the 18z is even worse!) GEFS backed off on the nao and has a weaker east based -nao. It also backed off slightly and retrograded all the features in the PAC. Those are subtle things and well within normal error for that range but that can be the difference for us.  I think the geps/eps interpretation would significantly increase our chances of snow.  

I have no interest in trying to make this work…

We’ve played that game way too often with the same result.  Frankly the gefs looks way too similar to how the long range has looked a lot over the last 8 years. If the long wave nuances of the gefs are correct I fully expect that SER to trend worse and become a big problem.  Late Jan and Feb 2019 we saw how a weak east based nao was not workable in that pacific look. 
 

I agree with cape out best bet is to say its just wrong. That pacific look is basically saying F off Nino you’re not denting my base state. 

I really think(and hope) it's wrong. Like a lot of things, we have no control over these outcomes. It will be what it will be, and life goes on. That said, the Ravens better fucking beat the Dolphins

[Ji]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

I’m not. I think it’s wrong. But I disagree with the attempts to sugar coat that gefs run. It’s not heading anywhere good. The pattern is actually retrograding away from anything workable at the end and the central pac ridge  is going ape.  I agree it’s likely wrong. I disagree that if it’s right it’s not a disaster. It is. Just hope it’s wrong. We’ve read that exact book many times and the last page never changes. 
 

 

the fact that the GEFS is showing this is pretty alarming because it goes against everything we have seen in the modeling since we started tracking this winter.

Maybe its programmed to have this default base state because thats all we have seen lately but you never want to see a major model ensemble run look like craep when you are trying to get your first good winter in 7 years

[Ji]

Just now, CAPE said:

I really think(and hope) it's wrong. Like a lot of things, we have no control over these outcomes. It will be what it will be, and life goes on. That said, the Ravens better fucking beat the Dolphins

i need Zay flowers to play and Lamar to stop giving Gus 1 yard Td runs. My other fantasy life depends on it

[Terpeast]

18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The 12z (and now the 18z is even worse!) GEFS backed off on the nao and has a weaker east based -nao. It also backed off slightly and retrograded all the features in the PAC. Those are subtle things and well within normal error for that range but that can be the difference for us.  I think the geps/eps interpretation would significantly increase our chances of snow.  

I have no interest in trying to make this work…

We’ve played that game way too often with the same result.  Frankly the gefs looks way too similar to how the long range has looked a lot over the last 8 years. If the long wave nuances of the gefs are correct I fully expect that SER to trend worse and become a big problem.  Late Jan and Feb 2019 we saw how a weak east based nao was not workable in that pacific look. 
 

I agree with cape out best bet is to say its just wrong. That pacific look is basically saying F off Nino you’re not denting my base state. 

I was comparing 12z eps with 18z gefs but didn’t scroll an extra day to the end of the gefs run. That extra progression is for the worse, yeah. I hope it’s on an island and that the eps/geps are more correct

[Ji]

they freaking ruined the GFS. its actually the new Dr no. It dosent give us snow ever...and when it does..it takes it away 1 run later and we never see it again. I miss the old days