Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming

[Terpeast]

Tbh, I’m not too encouraged by what I’m seeing in the LR. At least not as encouraged as 2-3 days ago 

[Ralph Wiggum]

33 minutes ago, Heisy said:

I’m not making anti-snow predictions. Just calling it how I see it. I want it to snow probably more than anyone on these forums. When it looks like a snowstorm is coming I’ll be excited as anyone, I’m probably the biggest weenie on here, didn’t you catch my posts on New Year’s Eve when we got those good runs?


I’m as frustrated as anyone. We’re getting stiffed tomorrow and then the 6z gefs looks like this. All I was saying is our next legit shot is probably post Jan 16th. It’s really unbelievable how long -PNA has been disrupting our patterns during the winter.

I guess being that we’re in a strong nino just have to be patient for 2nd half of winter

Didn't last season feature cold in the NW specifically and a -PNA with a trof that kept settling in the W and SW also? Maybe this is all still Nina lag stuff that some red taggers have mentioned and once it's gone it's game on? Or maybe we are nearing time for another 684726485 word diatribe from PSU....I dunno at this point tbh. Hopeful we still get a typical Nino run of stormy winter even if only 5-10 days.

[Ralph Wiggum]

11 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Tbh, I’m not too encouraged by what I’m seeing in the LR. At least not as encouraged as 2-3 days ago 

I saw the gfs op and thought uh oh towards the later portion of the run. Gefs isn't quite as ominous but even there on the smoothed mean you still get that vibe. Could be a blip like saw about a week ago, we'll see.

[blizzardmeiser]

Late January will be rocking with storms and rumors of storms.  

[CAPE]

14 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Tbh, I’m not too encouraged by what I’m seeing in the LR. At least not as encouraged as 2-3 days ago 

A Pacific jet extension would help improve the look out west. I believe retraction is favored when the tropical convection is over the MC though. All this stuff is intertwined. If you look at the actual SSTs there, its not surprising the MJO tends to stay in the 'bad phases'.

[Terpeast]

Just now, CAPE said:

A Pacific jet extension would help improve the look out west. I believe retraction is favored when the tropical convection is over the MC though. All this stuff is intertwined. If you look at the actual SSTs there, its not surprising the MJO tends to stay in the 'bad phases'.

That’s what I was saying the other day about the MJO. We don’t want tropical convection too strong in the MC. 

[anotherman]

8 minutes ago, blizzardmeiser said:

Late January will be rocking with storms and rumors of storms.  

Thanks, Joe.

[frd]

19 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Tbh, I’m not too encouraged by what I’m seeing in the LR. At least not as encouraged as 2-3 days ago 

What do you think about Feb ?  Some forecasters who went with above normal snow totals really need Feb to deliver.

Here the streak of less than 1 inch of snow is insanely long. Changes in the West Pac, hyper warm pool, marine heatwaves, and warmth everywhere is screwing up the outcomes with this Nino. 

 

[frd]

Just now, anotherman said:

Thanks, Joe.

Where was the Holiday period snow storms.  WeatherBell seasonal not doing well.  

[anotherman]

Just now, frd said:

Where was the Holiday period snow storms.  WeatherBell seasonal not doing well.  

I'm old enough to remember when had some credibility and integrity.

[Terpeast]

Just now, frd said:

What do you think about Feb ?  Some forecasters who went with above normal snow totals really need Feb to deliver.

Here the streak of less than 1 inch of snow is insanely long. Changes in the West Pac, hyper warm pool, marine heatwaves, and warmth everywhere is screwing up the outcomes with this Nino. 

 

By the time the MJO runs its course through 4-6, it’ll be late Jan. If it doesn’t reload back at 4, we still have a chance. But with that rug pull on tomorrow’s storm, I’m not so sure about above normal snowfall this year. Could still happen with 1 well timed wave with just enough cold air. We do have that STJ going for us. 

[frd]

59 minutes ago, Heisy said:

It’s really unbelievable how long -PNA has been disrupting our patterns during the winter.

When the PNA was neutral the entire North America continent was warm, not we have cold building in Canada but a - PNA.

 

 

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

That’s what I was saying the other day about the MJO. We don’t want tropical convection too strong in the MC. 

Is it typical to see the SSTs so warm in that area during a strong Nino? I believe in a moderate CP event the waters around the MC tend to be colder, suppressing convection there.

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Is it typical to see the SSTs so warm in that area during a strong Nino? I believe in a moderate CP event the waters around the MC tend to be colder, suppressing convection there.

It’s not typical, it should be colder or neutral there. The loudest person in the room is being drowned out by other noises

But if/when convection quiets over the MC, that is our chance

[wasnow215]

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

It seems this winter so far there is a lot of potential always at Day 10+ and that it keeps fizzling out for one reason or another as we get closer.  

*every winter for the last several years at least

[Yeoman]

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

It seems this winter so far there is a lot of potential always at Day 10+ and that it keeps fizzling out for one reason or another as we get closer.  

Really? That never happens..

The voting is tight between you and Jayyyyyyy for the Capt Obvious award

[CAPE]

15 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

It’s not typical, it should be colder or neutral there. The loudest person in the room is being drowned out by other noises

But if/when convection quiets over the MC, that is our chance

Or we need other indices to overwhelm it. A significantly -AO with strong -NAO episodes help a lot. Also seeing a -EPO at the end of the ens runs. That is actually a cold look for most the lower 48 despite the pretty colors looking less impressive. Fwiw the extended products do exactly what we want to see with the blob of lower heights out west- weaken it/morph it into an Aleutian low with a ridge building out west. The latest Euro weeklies have below normal temps for the eastern third of the US from Jan 15 to Feb 18- end of the run.

[Terpeast]

6 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Or we need other indices to overwhelm it. A significantly -AO with strong -NAO episodes help a lot. Also seeing a -EPO at the end of the ens runs. That is actually a cold look for most the lower 48 despite the pretty colors looking less impressive. Fwiw the extended products do exactly what we want to see with the blob of lower heights out west- weaken it/morph it into an Aleutian low with a ridge building out west. The latest Euro weeklies have below normal temps for the eastern third  of the US from Jan 15 to Feb 18- end of the run.

Lets hope it plays out exactly like this. The weaker SPV should help, and the 4-6 convection should fade by the end of the month or sooner. 

what really shocked and puzzled me is that -VP anomalies were stuck over 7/8 for 6 months, and then suddenly it shifted and now there’s suppression over 7/8/1 despite record warm ssts in nino 4

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

Lets hope it plays out exactly like this. The weaker SPV should help, and the 4-6 convection should fade by the end of the month or sooner. 

what really shocked and puzzled me is that -VP anomalies were stuck over 7/8, and then suddenly it shifted and now there’s suppression over 7/8/1 despite record warm ssts in nino 4

I saw that too. Then I looked at the actual SSTs, and the temps near the MC are as warm or a bit warmer. Other factors favoring convection there.

[blizzardmeiser]

34 minutes ago, frd said:

Where was the Holiday period snow storms.  WeatherBell seasonal not doing well.  

Got the pattern change but the snow didnt deliver.....

[IronTy]

2 hours ago, Weather Will said:

It seems this winter so far there is a lot of potential always at Day 10+ and that it keeps fizzling out for one reason or another as we get closer.  

I don't know, I don't often look at the LR maps, but when I do they portend the most SEVERE cold seen in the L48 in years.  This time is no different.  Be informed.  

[Terpeast]

All ens models agree on a colder window between Jan 15 and Jan 20. 850mb temps will be below normal during those 5-6 days. Now the question is, can we get a well-timed wave passing over us within that window? Probably not at the beginning since that'll be the FROPA bringing colder air. But can it happen in the middle or at the end? 

I don't see a discrete SS wave in the 24h precip anomaly nor MSLP anomaly panels... at least not yet. Too far out to answer that question for now.

[Paleocene]

Still potential for front end snow/ice before the flip next tuesday morning (much better N&W)

[frd]

 

I really need to move to Seattle for my full of snow and arctic cold.

 

 

 

 

[Ji]

11 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

Still potential for front end snow/ice before the flip next tuesday morning (much better N&W)

there is a 10 degree difference between Canadaian and GFS at 12z tuesday

[WinterWxLuvr]

How this storm plays out greatly affects Tuesday

[mattie g]

Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

How this storm plays out greatly affects Tuesday

So...rain on rain?

[Maestrobjwa]

8 minutes ago, Ji said:

there is a 10 degree difference between Canadaian and GFS at 12z tuesday

But the GEM is always cold though, isn't it? Lol

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

But the GEM is always cold though, isn't it? Lol

Yea, I've been ignoring the GEM, even the ensembles. Biased way too cold

[Porsche]

don't look now but GFS is up to digital blue next weekend.