Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming

[WxUSAF]

Amazing thread from Tomer tonight. You’ll want to read to the end.

 

[psuhoffman]

For years the mjo has done us no good. When the patterns been crap often we’ve filled up pages with hope for an mjo wave headed for 8/1 to save us. It’s never done a damn thing. Usually the wave dies and barely makes it because the base state was hostile to central pac forcing. But even when it did make it at most we would get only a slight dent in the pattern. Maybe it went from god awful to just awful. Then before it did much more than that the wave moved on and we were back to god awful. 
 

So now that we have a Nino and a favorable pattern and forcing base state I hear a drum beat of “the mjo is gonna wreck it” by some. Yea ok. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

42 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

For years the mjo has done us no good. When the patterns been crap often we’ve filled up pages with hope for an mjo wave headed for 8/1 to save us. It’s never done a damn thing. Usually the wave dies and barely makes it because the base state was hostile to central pac forcing. But even when it did make it at most we would get only a slight dent in the pattern. Maybe it went from god awful to just awful. Then before it did much more than that the wave moved on and we were back to god awful. 
 

So now that we have a Nino and a favorable pattern and forcing base state I hear a drum beat of “the mjo is gonna wreck it” by some. Yea ok. 

I admit to not knowing all the nuances of the MJO, though do know the "warm" and "cold" phases...and don't know how much the ENSO state alters that.  But I have noticed what you're saying here in the past few years.  I can't remember which winter it was recently, but I definitely recall where the MJO was supposed to go into the favorable 8-1-2 phases, and at ridiculously high amplitude.  There was a good bit of talk about how that would turn things around and lots of hope, blah blah blah...and in the end, not much changed.  I'm not saying that the MJO is useless or unimportant by any means, but I just don't know how much of a role it plays or how it modulates depending on various states (ENSO, blocking, etc.).

ETA:  I have noticed that when things look like shit, there's all kinds of attention paid to the MJO as well as the state of the stratospheric vortex and whether it will be disrupted, etc.  When things are doing fine, you don't hear anything about those, or very little.

[Maestrobjwa]

2 hours ago, Ji said:

Anthony just ended winter

While that scenario would hurt...at least it wouldn't go in the book as being because we're warming, lol It would just be really, REALLY crappy luck. But hopefully that won't happen (or we get another shot with the next one)

BTW is HM using a different handle or was this posted somewhere else?

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, Jebman said:

Masiello is usually right.

This is why I hope he wasn't being completely serious/trolling vs him actually seeing something that would indicate such an outcome.

[Jebman]

Masiello is pretty smart about meteorology. I wish he had said Mid Atlantic was gonna get totally obliterated by a Kocin-Uccellini magnitude blizzard.

[Darkstorm]

This is why I hope he wasn't being completely serious/trolling vs him actually seeing something that would indicate such an outcome.

I took it as more they will get a snowstorm first, not that we won’t get any snow. Ji took this as an opportunity for his 500th end of winter call for the season.

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, Darkstorm said:

I took it as more they will get a snowstorm first, not that we won’t get any snow. Ji took this as an opportunity for his 500th end of winter call for the season.

Tomer indicated that in the Twitter thread @WxUSAF shared as well. Hopefully it indeed meant just meant "first" lol

[Ji]

I admit to not knowing all the nuances of the MJO, though do know the "warm" and "cold" phases...and don't know how much the ENSO state alters that.  But I have noticed what you're saying here in the past few years.  I can't remember which winter it was recently, but I definitely recall where the MJO was supposed to go into the favorable 8-1-2 phases, and at ridiculously high amplitude.  There was a good bit of talk about how that would turn things around and lots of hope, blah blah blah...and in the end, not much changed.  I'm not saying that the MJO is useless or unimportant by any means, but I just don't know how much of a role it plays or how it modulates depending on various states (ENSO, blocking, etc.).
ETA:  I have noticed that when things look like shit, there's all kinds of attention paid to the MJO as well as the state of the stratospheric vortex and whether it will be disrupted, etc.  When things are doing fine, you don't hear anything about those, or very little.

I think it was late last winter we went into the tank...with a strong phase 8/1

We didn't get jack

But had a cold spring

Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk

[NorthArlington101]

I think this is basically Tomer promising a DC/VA snowstorm?

https://x.com/burgwx/status/1743122848648958012?s=46&t=YRAxGyE8QLsoshMtJniktg

[nj2va]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I think this is basically Tomer promising a DC/VA snowstorm?

https://x.com/burgwx/status/1743122848648958012?s=46&t=YRAxGyE8QLsoshMtJniktg

Old news bro.  @WxUSAF already posted it.  You were too busy chasing our trace of snow Saturday. 

[NorthArlington101]

Old news bro.  [mention=51]WxUSAF[/mention] already posted it.  You were too busy chasing our trace of snow Saturday. 

He asked me to read to the end? With my limited attention span? Big ask

[DCAlexandria]

1/19 BIG DOG. WOOF


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[Stormchaserchuck1]

00z GFS kicks out the -NAO quickly.. These have had no staying power lately. With Pacific ridge pinching into -EPO/-WPO, watch the rising-up-to neutral part of NAO cycle for historical snowstorm threat. 

[nj2va]

00z GFS OP shows the potential post MLK.  Looking forward to see the ensembles.

[DCAlexandria]

Anyone got the clown map?


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[Heisy]

I don’t see much hope over the next 10-12 days. Pac is screwing us again even with the monster block. MJO no good. Imo It’s whether we can score between 18th and beyond once the lower heights finally migrate east. Certainly have the risk of going cold and dry before pattern reset though. Who knows. Frustrating honestly. Maybe I’ll ride up to the poconos tomorrow.


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[Heisy]

I have an uncle that lives in Azalea Oregon maybe I’ll set up shop over there, Jesus


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[Steve25]

I'm surprised some of you are already just writing off the period around next weekend. It feels like the models haven't come close to figuring out exactly how it'll play out, particularly with all this action in the week leading up to it. 

[CAPE]

19 minutes ago, Steve25 said:

I'm surprised some of you are already just writing off the period around next weekend. It feels like the models haven't come close to figuring out exactly how it'll play out, particularly with all this action in the week leading up to it. 

Probably looking at MLK day and beyond for legit opportunities. Ensemble guidance has been very consistent with the western/central US trough and storm track to our west through next weekend. The storm around MLK day could offer some frozen potential, esp if there is a trailing wave scenario. That is the timeframe where colder air will be pressing eastward.

[CAPE]

Continuing to see indications on the means of a wave or waves forming on the thermal boundary that would be to our south behind the storm on the 15th. Should be cold enough if it were to precipitate.

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, Heisy said:

I don’t see much hope over the next 10-12 days. Pac is screwing us again even with the monster block. MJO no good. Imo It’s whether we can score between 18th and beyond once the lower heights finally migrate east. Certainly have the risk of going cold and dry before pattern reset though. Who knows. Frustrating honestly. Maybe I’ll ride up to the poconos tomorrow.


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This is not breaking news. Have you been paying attention?

[frd]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Probably looking at MLK day and beyond for legit opportunities. Ensemble guidance has been very consistent with the western/central US trough and storm track to our west through next weekend. The storm around MLK day could offer some frozen potential, esp if there is a trailing wave scenario. That is the timeframe where colder air will be pressing eastward.

Sadly, I admit I am bummed to see winter hit out West first with such a fury. The - AO and the - NAO have only muted the warmth here. 

I am interested to see whether Tomer's stats about the peak of a - NAO and its relationship afterward on average to Mid Atlantic  snowstorms. He stated 3 to 5 days after the - NAO peak is when to watch for a possible threat.  That would be near the 18 th to the 22nd.   

Meanwhile he also posted this about the failed early Jan SSWE.    

Jim chimes in with how active it is going to be in the States over the next 10 to 15 days. Next Weds looks like a high wind threat here  followed by a second cutter, and then a third system near hour 240 on the high resolution ECM. which I am not sure how that will play out. 

 

 

[frd]

8 minutes ago, CAPE said:

This is not breaking news. Have you been paying attention?

Agreed, we knew it was going to happen, but in the last 24 to 72 hours the arctic cold trended even further West.  

Seems as if wave breaking and the Greenland block pushed the arctic air further WSW in Canada. I imagine if things were different upstream,  and if the PAC profile was more favorable the colder airmass would have come further East,  versus further West.   

 

[aldie 22]

13 minutes ago, CAPE said:

This is not breaking news. Have you been paying attention?

No...no he hasn't but he's one of those that makes the bold proclamations that it won't snow then claims victory when it doesn't literally choosing the easiest path to despair.  Here's my prediction...every winter it doesn't snow most days and in fact will rain more often. I'll claim victory on this call in March 

[Weather Will]

It seems this winter so far there is a lot of potential always at Day 10+ and that it keeps fizzling out for one reason or another as we get closer.  

[CAPE]

Just now, Weather Will said:

It seems this winter so far there is a lot of potential always at Day 10+ and that it keeps fizzling out for one reason or another as we get closer.  

That potential only exists on mathematical models, with significant uncertainty at long leads. Don't look at it and you won't be disappointed when it 'fizzles'.

[HighStakes]

5 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

It seems this winter so far there is a lot of potential always at Day 10+ and that it keeps fizzling out for one reason or another as we get closer.  

If we are to believe all the top analogs for this year one wouldn't expect a sustained winter pattern to set in until around the 18th. If we can rival 66,87 and a couple others thrown out which I think is still very much on the table  then anything before the 18th is gravy. If we get to that date and it's delayed again then we have a problem.  

All the big teleconnections are lining up nicely in about a week. Hopefully they stay on course.

[Heisy]

No...no he hasn't but he's one of those that makes the bold proclamations that it won't snow then claims victory when it doesn't literally choosing the easiest path to despair.  Here's my prediction...every winter it doesn't snow most days and in fact will rain more often. I'll claim victory on this call in March 

I’m not making anti-snow predictions. Just calling it how I see it. I want it to snow probably more than anyone on these forums. When it looks like a snowstorm is coming I’ll be excited as anyone, I’m probably the biggest weenie on here, didn’t you catch my posts on New Year’s Eve when we got those good runs?


I’m as frustrated as anyone. We’re getting stiffed tomorrow and then the 6z gefs looks like this. All I was saying is our next legit shot is probably post Jan 16th. It’s really unbelievable how long -PNA has been disrupting our patterns during the winter.

I guess being that we’re in a strong nino just have to be patient for 2nd half of winter

[aldie 22]

2 minutes ago, Heisy said:

I’m not making anti-snow predictions. Just calling it how I see it. I want it to snow probably more than anyone on these forums. When it looks like a snowstorm is coming I’ll be excited as anyone, I’m probably the biggest weenie on here, didn’t you catch my posts on New Year’s Eve when we got those good runs?


I’m as frustrated as anyone. We’re getting stiffed tomorrow and then the 6z gefs looks like this. All I was saying is our next legit shot is probably post Jan 16th. It’s really unbelievable how long -PNA has been disrupting our patterns during the winter.


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I hear you...all I recall reading on here is the best chance at winter was later in January to mid February anything before that is gravy. Cape and others have been pointing out windows with potential like this one and sometimes potential doesn't deliver...so you saying after January 20th is pretty much what the discussion has been since early December. I get it no snow sucks I'm with you there. 

 

Hope it snows soon