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Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming


stormtracker
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2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Pretty radical look at the end of the 6z GFS. TPV locked underneath the block and energy in the SW poised to come eastward. Anything from suppressed to a phase with NS wave(s) would be on the table. Well below avg temps for the central/eastern US as advertised.

1705708800-3UmqidjFKEk.png

Ha, I was literally coming to say that, for illustrative purposes, this is a potential big dog look. PV trapped under the -NAO with a strong southern stream wave forced to move W-E across the conus with arctic air locked in. 
 

IMG_7496.png

IMG_7497.png

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5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Pretty radical look at the end of the 6z GFS. TPV locked underneath the block and energy in the SW poised to come eastward. Anything from suppressed to a phase with NS wave(s) would be on the table. Well below avg temps for the central/eastern US as advertised.

1705708800-3UmqidjFKEk.png

Pattern looks sweet. Models look sweet. Ens look sweet. But will it produce? My gut wag on this? Cold arrives and overwhelms the pattern = cold/dry....pattern relaxes late month and we get our typical 1 Nino shot at a big storm. 

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21 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Pattern looks sweet. Models look sweet. Ens look sweet. But will it produce? My gut wag on this? Cold arrives and overwhelms the pattern = cold/dry....pattern relaxes late month and we get our typical 1 Nino shot at a big storm. 

Could go down like that. Most strong Ninos give us a 3-5 week heater and comes down to how many times we can capitalize.

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24 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Pattern looks sweet. Models look sweet. Ens look sweet. But will it produce? My gut wag on this? Cold arrives and overwhelms the pattern = cold/dry....pattern relaxes late month and we get our typical 1 Nino shot at a big storm. 

Ralph, your gut is one the worst possible evolutions of this pattern in terms of snow chances? That’s shocking. You are usually such an optimist…

 

/s

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Pattern looks sweet. Models look sweet. Ens look sweet. But will it produce? My gut wag on this? Cold arrives and overwhelms the pattern = cold/dry....pattern relaxes late month and we get our typical 1 Nino shot at a big storm. 

There could def be a time period where the lower heights under the block overwhelm. Until I actually see a west ridge on the OPs under 7-8 days I won’t believe. Pattern has potential, but im at the show me stage. Until then I’ll just assume the block will act like the blocks we’ve had the last few years


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7 minutes ago, Steve25 said:

How do you guys feel about the weekend of the 13th/14th? Does the overall pattern look like it would lend itself to another NW/cutter type of track like mid-week? 

Looking that way on the means currently. Could end up more Miller B-ish. Still a ways out.

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An event around MLK day has been on my radar for a few days....the period after that  also looks favorable for below normal temps with an active stream.  With the way the past few winters have gone id much prefer suppression risk  over having to worry about temps.  A couple inches along with a period of below normal temps would do a lot for morale around here.

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2 minutes ago, Shad said:

An event around MLK day has been on my radar for a few days....the period after that  also looks favorable for below normal temps with an active stream.  With the way the past few winters have gone id much prefer suppression risk  over having to worry about temps.  A couple inches along with a period of below normal temps would do a lot for morale around here.

After the past 7 years, a couple inches and cold weather in a Nino in late January is probably going to lower morale even more than it already is

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1 hour ago, osfan24 said:

After the past 7 years, a couple inches and cold weather in a Nino in late January is probably going to lower morale even more than it already is

I can only speak for myself, of course, but any legit cold would only raise my morale. I'm a winter lover all the way through. 

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4 hours ago, CAPE said:

Pretty radical look at the end of the 6z GFS

Just checked  out the latest AO forecast. Members going even more negative than yesterday. Consensus on - 4 SD AO. Some members take it to - 6 SD.  Wow !! 

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Next tuesdays cutter sets the thermal boundary for any follow up waves. GGEM makes that boundary much more favorable and has been consistently more friendly than the gfs. But gfs isn’t too far off… Late next week is still a time to watch closely.

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10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Next tuesdays cutter sets the thermal boundary for any follow up waves. GGEM makes that boundary much more favorable and has been consistently more friendly than the gfs. But gfs isn’t too far off… Late next week is still a time to watch closely.

GGEM gives us snow every winter like we are Garrett County bro

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6 minutes ago, Heisy said:

This boundary type system could work if the N/S pushes out ahead a little farther E or the stj wave is slower/delayed 6597b9ed08ca10af75bdf4e8231685c2.jpg


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The alt scenario is scary. Deepen that western trough and bubble that massive SER and we go full torch

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9 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Some of y'alls ability to look at fantasy swirls and posit the WORST POSSIBLE OUTCOME is practically a super-power. 

Lol. If you don’t see danger in these maps then I guess rock on. I’m just commenting on the map shown. 10 day maps are useless.

0032A010-0323-4146-9707-3F4C0A28A286.thumb.png.d43453e32347282326dc56842899f9cc.png

82A6D63D-5F38-4DF7-965F-23B3B285EE5F.thumb.png.61aa597fb92ba779ad82d2c5e970d6d1.png

 

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6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Lol. If you don’t see danger in these maps then I guess rock on. I’m just commenting on the map shown. 10 day maps are useless.

0032A010-0323-4146-9707-3F4C0A28A286.thumb.png.d43453e32347282326dc56842899f9cc.png

82A6D63D-5F38-4DF7-965F-23B3B285EE5F.thumb.png.61aa597fb92ba779ad82d2c5e970d6d1.png

 

I see eventual anafront/overrunning chances in that....I also see dead people.  

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It's cool wxluvr - not specifically giving you the business but it is the posting style of a bunch of people in this thread to take a 10+ day map and say "if we-change-a-few-things-it's-Dubai-in-three-weeks" kinda stuff that's all. It's kinda funny taking the long view. And if you read enough of those posts etc. Peace, friend. 

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6 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

It's cool wxluvr - not specifically giving you the business but it is the posting style of a bunch of people in this thread to take a 10+ day map and say "if we-change-a-few-things-it's-Dubai-in-three-weeks" kinda stuff that's all. It's kinda funny taking the long view. And if you read enough of those posts etc. Peace, friend. 

All good. Wasn’t being snappy. I just took one look at that thing and said whoa. But you’re right, one could easily say modify this a little and it’s game on.

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I see eventual anafront/overrunning chances in that....I also see dead people.  

Yes! Was going to mention that’s an anafrontal setup if altered a little bit. Didn’t want to get trolled too much lol

And to those saying stop analyzing day 10 maps. I know it’s 10 days, but you can still get a an idea that you might have a storm threat in the range. I like to see OPs show a path to victory ina given pattern. Storms never really pop out of nowhere. We’ve been tracking Saturday’s storm for over 240 hours


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14 minutes ago, Heisy said:


Yes! Was going to mention that’s an anafrontal setup if altered a little bit. Didn’t want to get trolled too much lol

And to those saying stop analyzing day 10 maps. I know it’s 10 days, but you can still get a an idea that you might have a storm threat in the range. I like to see OPs show a path to victory ina given pattern. Storms never really pop out of nowhere. We’ve been tracking Saturday’s storm for over 240 hours


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It's astonishing how advanced the modeling is these days, sniffing out storms 3 WEEKS in advance. 

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