mattie g Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 It would be awesome to have some remaining snow cover to keep things cooler ahead of the Tuesday storm. Now we root for a colder trend for more of a front end thump! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 GFS brining the goods again for the Tuesday thump. Like 6 inches out here. Sadly it is followed by a torrential dumping of rain. I will be out there standing over my snowboard with an umbrella getting that last measurement. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 So we all knew there was gonna be a western cold dump during this time frame. But still man, what’s it gonna take to get +PNA? Voodoo? . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 minutes ago, Heisy said: So we all knew there was gonna be a western cold dump during this time frame. But still man, what’s it gonna take to get +PNA? Voodoo? . Still a TPV in Ontario. That's a pretty cold and stormy look 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Still a TPV in Ontario. That's a pretty cold and stormy lookYea cmc has that which is a semi savior. GFS not really and you can see how the temps react . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 14 minutes ago, Heisy said: Yea cmc has that which is a semi savior. GFS not really and you can see how the temps react . Some ridge improvements at the end of the op run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Been some hints of an MLK storm. Minus the next Tuesday deal (trip to the mountains?) that period is what interests me most 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Been some hints of an MLK storm. Minus the next Tuesday deal (trip to the mountains?) that period is what interests me most Agreed. I’ll start the thread. In all honesty, the pattern is just super active starting this weekend. And there is arctic air nearby. Going to be a lot of precip either way I think. 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 So we all knew there was gonna be a western cold dump during this time frame. But still man, what’s it gonna take to get +PNA? Voodoo? .We had a pna for most of Dec. how did that work for you lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 CMC ens made a nice move in the correct way 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 if we're going to overanalyze OP runs, the CMC would be sick. that massive western vort would get squeezed under the block with a 50/50 developing 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 GFS run is active and interesting once we get past next weeks rainer. MLK potential and then clippers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 In happier news, GEFS has The Look starting MLK weekend. PV trapped under a mega -NAO/AO with some ridging developing out west. 19 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 The question I’m wondering is how many cutters will it take to finally get legit lower heights under the block in 50/50 land. End of euro, prob have to run that another 3-5 days+ for us to have a good setup . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 It does look like the GEFS wants to spill +heights into the EPO-WPO domain now. I guess it's caving to the EPS in this regard? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 16 hours ago, psuhoffman said: @Stormchaserchuck1…this produced 3 snow events and one of our epic Nino snow runs. -pna. I think this is where we’re headed. Yes or no, are you saying this wouldn’t work anymore? You really think that's a -pna, with a trough across the N. pacific from Japan to the West coast? It seems like LR models are evolving this way, and my research has highlighted the Jan 19th period as the pattern change, so let's see if it holds going forward. If a trough develops under a -WPO ridge, we may be in business. I would also like that Pacific pattern to develop before the NAO is rising up from negative (KU storms). The SE ridge/Aleutian ridge may linger though, I'm not 100% on that changing before the 19/20. But these are really good trends today in the PNA region for the long range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
katabatic Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 14 minutes ago, Heisy said: The question I’m wondering is how many cutters will it take to finally get legit lower heights under the block in 50/50 land. End of euro, prob have to run that another 3-5 days+ for us to have a good setup . Your question is the same one that I (and I am sure most) are asking after that Euro run. Last year, I get it - raging SER a la Nina. But what do we need now to break this OHV track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 3 hours ago, Heisy said: So we all knew there was gonna be a western cold dump during this time frame. But still man, what’s it gonna take to get +PNA? Voodoo? . During most -PDO cycle ninos we still get a lot of -PNA, but with a block its supposed to overcome it. A -PDO can actually be awesome with blocking if the systems slide east under the block instead of getting stuck out west with a SER linking to the block. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 23 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: You really think that's a -pna, with a trough across the N. pacific from Japan to the West coast? It seems like LR models are evolving this way, and my research has highlighted the Jan 19th period as the pattern change, so let's see if it holds going forward. If a trough develops under a -WPO ridge, we may be in business. I would also like that Pacific pattern to develop before the NAO is rising up from negative (KU storms). The SE ridge/Aleutian ridge may linger though, I'm not 100% on that changing before the 19/20. But these are really good trends today in the PNA region for the long range. PNA values from that time period 1966 1 15 -1.725 1966 1 16 -1.642 1966 1 17 -1.534 1966 1 18 -1.542 1966 1 19 -1.654 1966 1 20 -1.739 1966 1 21 -1.622 1966 1 22 -1.402 1966 1 23 -1.269 1966 1 24 -1.26 1966 1 25 -1.204 1966 1 26 -1.255 1966 1 27 -1.369 1966 1 28 -1.562 1966 1 29 -1.333 1966 1 30 -0.903 1966 1 31 -0.927 However, I agree that while the numerical value is a -PNA there is a HUGE difference between a -PNA linked up with the NS in a full latitude trough and a -PNA due to cut off STJ energy crashing into the southwest with ridging over top of it. But technically it is still a -PNA. I was just trying to see if you think that setup can still work. It appears you do. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 3 hours ago, clskinsfan said: GFS brining the goods again for the Tuesday thump. Like 6 inches out here. Sadly it is followed by a torrential dumping of rain. I will be out there standing over my snowboard with an umbrella getting that last measurement. That's exactly what I need to clean my stream out! It has been 2 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 GFS run is active and interesting once we get past next weeks rainer. MLK potential and then clippers.Huh? Clippers still exist? . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Here we go again 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Here we go again i bet we end up seeing more snow on Tuesday than saturday smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 i bet we end up seeing more snow on Tuesday than saturday smhIt’s always the storm after the storm… after the storm. I’m more interested in MLK Day. Tuesday has no shot in the metro. Hope I’m wrong but don’t see it going well. Bet @clskinsfan will be fretting and end up with 5” anyway tho 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 21 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Here we go again Fall line again 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 hour ago, jayyy said: Thought the better sampling aspect was a debunked theory… guess not. Beyond HR 72, my preferred model suites are the 00z and 12z because they incorporate fresh upper air data. 1 hour ago, Chris78 said: On the Lwx forecast discussion they discussed better sampling later tonight as the second shortwave comes on shore on the west coast. Sounded like they expected more model agreement late tonight/ Tomorrow as the shortwaves are both over land. Kind of funny to read that. I thought that was an old weenie fable when things don't look great. The Pacific Ocean is a data hole. While we have increased capabilities with GOES-R, nothing will beat a sampled atmosphere from an upper air balloon. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 56 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Fall line again I read that at first as "fail line again." That shows you where I'm at these days lol. In all seriousness, I am really, really hopeful for this period from mid January into February. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 I read that at first as "fail line again." That shows you where I'm at these days lol. In all seriousness, I am really, really hopeful for this period from mid January into February.I have a bad feeling about February now. We better score as early and often as we can now 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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