Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming

[nj2va]

4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

We KU here.

Is Heisy worried though? 

[CAPE]

Just now, nj2va said:

Is Heisy worried though? 

That Aleutian trough looks mighty strong. Pac puke flood? Wasted block!

[Terpeast]

9 minutes ago, CAPE said:

That Aleutian trough looks mighty strong. Pac puke flood? Wasted block!

MJO gonna go ape in the warm phases

Nino isn’t enough to overpower the nina base state

11th straight warmest winter for NE, bad juju there

It’s never going to snow again, so we’re f’ed

/sarcasm

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

I have a bad feeling about February now. We better score as early and often as we can now

I think February is a big test as to the decadal -PNA we are in. The N. Pacific anomalies over the last 6 Winter's are the greatest we've ever seen in an area at 500mb on record for the same month over a 6-year period. (Feb 1964-1969 -NAO comes in 2nd)

[Buddy1987]

4 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

MJO gonna go ape in the warm phases

Nino isn’t enough to overpower the nina base state

11th straight warmest winter for NE, bad juju there

It’s never going to snow again, so we’re f’ed

 

Do you downgrade your forecast now or are you holding off until MLK time frame. This is pretty depressing we just can’t do winter or cold or snow anymore. 

[Terpeast]

Just now, Buddy1987 said:

Do you downgrade your forecast now or are you holding off until MLK time frame. This is pretty depressing we just can’t do winter or cold or snow anymore. 

Edited my post to say i was being sarcastic, but I’ll wait until after 1/7-1/9 to update my forecast if need be

[usedtobe]

9 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I think February is a big test as to the decadal -PNA we are in. The N. Pacific anomalies over the last 6 Winter's are the greatest we've ever seen in an area at 500mb on record for a 6-year period. (Feb 1964-1969 -NAO comes in 2nd)

Interesting that 1964-1969 was a snowy period. 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, usedtobe said:

Interesting that 1964-1969 was a snowy period. 

Good to see ya post here again! On a comical note I  case you missed it...someone mentioned you but accidentally spelled your username as "usedrobe" Lolol

[Eskimo Joe]

21 minutes ago, CAPE said:

New edition of Euro Weeklies implies a strong west based block for 2+ weeks. Can still see it here, and in later panels.

Feb 2 to 18 is the climo window in these parts for Top 10 snow events. If we can't manage at least 1 healthy warning level event this year in that window, then we are truly forever screwed.

[frd]

Increased likelihood of a deeper and longer duration - AO. 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

33 minutes ago, usedtobe said:

Interesting that 1964-1969 was a snowy period. 

We also have an ongoing record of 10 straights February's with +NAO (CPC)

2014  1.34  
2015  1.32  
2016  1.58  
2017  1.00   
2018  1.58  
2019  0.29  
2020  1.26  
2021  0.14   
2022  1.68  
2023  0.92

1950-60 March -NAO ties the index record with January 09-19 +PNA for 11 consecutive years. 

1966 was a very -NAO February, and I know -PNA February's in El Nino's can sometimes pop big -NAO's so we'll see

[Jebman]

52 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

MJO gonna go ape in the warm phases

Nino isn’t enough to overpower the nina base state

11th straight warmest winter for NE, bad juju there

It’s never going to snow again, so we’re f’ed

/sarcasm

Overall N HEM setup is pretty good and we are in a low end, strong Nino. It's gonna snow again and deep, right in the cities and all over this fine sub. We are gonna track til our eyes fall off. We are gonna stay up and track every last model run! We will not tire or give up! My debbin' days are over! I love being an optimist! We are gonna reel in some tasty setups with deep deep snows and frigid cold! So guzzle down those Monster drinks and strap yourselves in real good! We are going to track the models til there aint no more winter left, sometime in early April.

[Heisy]

Is Heisy worried though? 

I agree with cape, I think the KU/big dog potential is around then if that’s legit. We get the big ones once the block starts to break down. Probably see some front enders (especially for N&W) until we can pop a ridge out west.


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[cbmclean]

2 hours ago, usedtobe said:

Interesting that 1964-1969 was a snowy period. 

I guess it Usedtobe colder.

[Jebman]

2 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

I guess it Usedtobe colder.

LMAO !!!!!!!!

[Ralph Wiggum]

3 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

I guess it Usedtobe colder.

Does Wes even stop by anymore?

[North Balti Zen]

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Does Wes even stop by anymore?

He did earlier today.

[brooklynwx99]

this wave breaking is a thing of beauty on the OP GFS

[CAPE]

Looking ahead to mid month and beyond for storm opportunities, there is a strong signal for the 13-14th window, but as discussed the trough axis is still a bit too far west this period so the favored storm track is to our west. This is far enough out to keep an eye on though. As modeled the cold will be advancing eastward during/just beyond this period. Maybe a trailing wave scenario as the boundary moves eastward around MLK day.

Beyond that as modeled the h5 pattern progression should bring colder air to the east coast with an establishing NAO block and a TPV lobe located underneath. There is an indication of a southern stream shortwave moving eastward, in addition to NS vorticity associated with the southward displaced TPV. The NS probably wont be 'quiet' during this time with the TPV depicted to be that far south. There should finally be some cold though.

[frd]

23 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Looking ahead to mid month and beyond for storm opportunities, there is a strong signal for the 13-14th window, but as discussed the trough axis is still a bit too far west this period so the favored storm track is to our west. This is far enough out to keep an eye on though. As modeled the cold will be advancing eastward during/just beyond this period. Maybe a trailing wave scenario as the boundary moves eastward around MLK day.

Beyond that as modeled the h5 pattern progression should bring colder air to the east coast with an establishing NAO block and a TPV lobe located underneath. There is an indication of a southern stream shortwave moving eastward, in addition to NS vorticity associated with the southward displaced TPV. The NS probably wont be 'quiet' during this time with the TPV depicted to be that far south. There should finally be some cold though.

Looks like potential for a clipper. Been a long time.  Also, a Manitoba Mauler would be acceptable as well. That vortex is almost South of Hudson Bay, interesting possibilities if this look comes true.  

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, frd said:

Looks like potential for a clipper. Been a long time.  Also, a Manitoba Mauler would be acceptable as well. That vortex is almost South of Hudson Bay, interesting possibilities if this look comes true.  

Also phasing opportunities with a potential southern wave. Tracking waves and their timing and interactions, maybe more than usual.

[frd]

7 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Also phasing opportunities with a potential southern wave. Tracking waves and their timing and interactions, maybe more than usual.

Yep, I am excited for this time period.

[frd]

5 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this wave breaking is a thing of beauty on the OP GFS

Pretty crazy look on long range guidance last night.  GFS has big potential. Have not seen the GEFS but @CAPEposted the overnight  Euro ensemble and it looks enticing. Nice wave breaking - wonder if we might get a clipper exploding on the VA capes near the 17 th to the 22 nd 

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, frd said:

Pretty crazy look on long range guidance last night.  GFS has big potential. Have not seen the GEFS but @CAPEposted the overnight  Euro ensemble and it looks enticing. Nice wave breaking - wonder if we might get a clipper exploding on the VA capes near the 17 th to the 22 nd 

Pretty radical look at the end of the 6z GFS. TPV locked underneath the block and energy in the SW poised to come eastward. Anything from suppressed to a phase with NS wave(s) would be on the table. Well below avg temps for the central/eastern US as advertised.

[frd]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Pretty radical look at the end of the 6z GFS. TPV locked underneath the block and energy in the SW poised to come eastward. Anything from suppressed to a phase with NS wave(s) would be on the table. Well below avg temps for the central/eastern US as advertised.

A look where snow on snow could occur. 

Ha, I can dream.  

[WxUSAF]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Pretty radical look at the end of the 6z GFS. TPV locked underneath the block and energy in the SW poised to come eastward. Anything from suppressed to a phase with NS wave(s) would be on the table. Well below avg temps for the central/eastern US as advertised.

Ha, I was literally coming to say that, for illustrative purposes, this is a potential big dog look. PV trapped under the -NAO with a strong southern stream wave forced to move W-E across the conus with arctic air locked in. 
 

[Ralph Wiggum]

5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Pretty radical look at the end of the 6z GFS. TPV locked underneath the block and energy in the SW poised to come eastward. Anything from suppressed to a phase with NS wave(s) would be on the table. Well below avg temps for the central/eastern US as advertised.

Pattern looks sweet. Models look sweet. Ens look sweet. But will it produce? My gut wag on this? Cold arrives and overwhelms the pattern = cold/dry....pattern relaxes late month and we get our typical 1 Nino shot at a big storm. 

[WxUSAF]

21 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Pattern looks sweet. Models look sweet. Ens look sweet. But will it produce? My gut wag on this? Cold arrives and overwhelms the pattern = cold/dry....pattern relaxes late month and we get our typical 1 Nino shot at a big storm. 

Could go down like that. Most strong Ninos give us a 3-5 week heater and comes down to how many times we can capitalize.

[North Balti Zen]

24 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Pattern looks sweet. Models look sweet. Ens look sweet. But will it produce? My gut wag on this? Cold arrives and overwhelms the pattern = cold/dry....pattern relaxes late month and we get our typical 1 Nino shot at a big storm. 

Ralph, your gut is one the worst possible evolutions of this pattern in terms of snow chances? That’s shocking. You are usually such an optimist…

 

/s

[Heisy]

Pattern looks sweet. Models look sweet. Ens look sweet. But will it produce? My gut wag on this? Cold arrives and overwhelms the pattern = cold/dry....pattern relaxes late month and we get our typical 1 Nino shot at a big storm. 

There could def be a time period where the lower heights under the block overwhelm. Until I actually see a west ridge on the OPs under 7-8 days I won’t believe. Pattern has potential, but im at the show me stage. Until then I’ll just assume the block will act like the blocks we’ve had the last few years


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