Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 6 minutes ago, Heisy said: If that pattern comes to fruition and we don’t get snow between 15-end of month then I give up lol. I'd be curious to see if a 3 sigma -NAO can overpower a 1 sigma -PNA right now to be honest. The -PNA may verify greater. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 10 minutes ago, Heisy said: If that pattern comes to fruition and we don’t get snow between 15-end of month then I give up lol. . I feel so confident that we’ll get snow in the last 2 weeks of January that I may start a thread for it now. 2 1 19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I feel so confident that we’ll get snow in the last 2 weeks of January that I may start a thread for it now. Whelp...on to February and March then!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 26 minutes ago, Heisy said: If that pattern comes to fruition and we don’t get snow between 15-end of month then I give up lol. . we havent had our dry and cold period of winter yet. Get ready friend! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 5 minutes ago, Ji said: we havent had our dry and cold period of winter yet. Get ready friend! And dont forget the January thaw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 The pattern starts to look favorable prior to this, but this period(and going forward) should be our wheelhouse for potentially bigger storms with cold air in place. A classic look across the HL region, with an ideally placed and strong west based block, and a TPV underneath. EPS has been consistent in depicting this pattern for several runs. 15 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: I feel so confident that we’ll get snow in the last 2 weeks of January that I may start a thread for it now. I'm on this train 11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 While I'm really disappointed in the Jan 6-7 system (I started seeing the red flags yesterday with weakening confluence), this upcoming pattern - if it pans out - will have stronger confluence up top and a slower pac jet. We won't have trailing shortwaves mucking things up if/when we have a good one on the way. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Gfs completely phasing the 10th cutter, this might help move the cold push in faster and help build block . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 2 minutes ago, Heisy said: Gfs completely phasing the 10th cutter, this might help move the cold push in faster and help build block . There is some pretty serious cold behind that avocado as the cutter passes, to be sure. Both at the surface and 850 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 GEFS is finally getting there. Note the lower h5 heights shifting eastward into the 50-50 region. Legit block setting up like the EPS. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 3 hours ago, CAPE said: The pattern starts to look favorable prior to this, but this period(and going forward) should be our wheelhouse for potentially bigger storms with cold air in place. Our "wheelhouse"? Do you realize it hasn't snowed 1" in 710+ days? Jan 27th is our coldest day of the year, so it's usually somewhat safe to predict colder weather around that day, but I think we could be waiting longer than you currently indicate. I did this research earlier, but it has held true to where it's going to happen that Jan 5-13 is a strong N. Pacific/Aleutian island High building during El Nino. I did 15 analogs (since 1948) matching PNA with opposite or Neutral ENSO state on those dates, and found that there is a strong indication that the pattern completely changes, in about a week after the 13th. This is a really good reversal on the composite, and you usually don't see that, especially in the PNA region, you usually see consistency rolled forward... This rolls forward to a +PNA Jan 18-19->, and East Coast goes to average or below average temps on and after Jan 21-22: https://ibb.co/xzVYnx5 https://ibb.co/kGL4bZp 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, CAPE said: GEFS is finally getting there. Note the lower h5 heights shifting eastward into the 50-50 region. Legit block setting up like the EPS. No, that's a nasty N. Pacific high, and now SE ridge. We aren't going to snow until that pattern changes. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: No, that's a nasty N. Pacific high, and now SE ridge. We aren't going to snow until that pattern changes. Getting there Chuck. Moving towards it Chuck. Hey Chuck, well.. you know. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 hour ago, CAPE said: GEFS is finally getting there. Note the lower h5 heights shifting eastward into the 50-50 region. Legit block setting up like the EPS. lol 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 18 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: lol @psuhoffman called it. Said the GEFS was wrong, and here we are. Still 300 hours away, but all the majors are in agreement on the LR pattern 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 rose colored glasses. That pattern isn't going to work (if you want snow in the east). Maybe after the 20th 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 4 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: rose colored glasses. That pattern isn't going to work (if you want snow in the east). Maybe after the 20th what about this one 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 22 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: what about this one I'm thinking they use '91-20 averages for one. Let's see where we're at on the 20th, I bet most places in the eastern US will have above average temps for Jan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said: I'm thinking they use 91-20 averages for one. Let's see where we're at on the 20th, I bet most places in the eastern US will have above average temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, snowfan said: From 12/29. Let’s see how they update this map though 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 7 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: I'd be curious to see if a 3 sigma -NAO can overpower a 1 sigma -PNA right now to be honest. The -PNA may verify greater. @Stormchaserchuck1…this produced 3 snow events and one of our epic Nino snow runs. -pna. I think this is where we’re headed. Yes or no, are you saying this wouldn’t work anymore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That was nearly 60 years ago though, the climate has warmed since then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 4 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said: That was nearly 60 years ago though, the climate has warmed since then Hence my question. It’s pertinent because 1966 was one of my top 3 analogs and if I had to re rank now based on how the season has progressed it would be number 1. So this might be where we’re heading. I just want to get him on the record in a definitive way. I feel like he hints but never comes out and says it. And Im not saying he would be wrong. We might find out. I’ve said this year is a good test case. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Since I know how some react to any non rainbow and unicorns analytical statement I make let me be clear I am very optimistic we will be fine. This is just speculative. The old gefs looks didn’t bother me too much. Yea I didn’t love anything looking that way but I was 90% sure it was out to lunch. This though…is slightly and I mean only slightly troubling. Look at the pac pattern the last week of Jan. 1 should produce a trough at 2! But it’s not. That’s been consistent on the euro for a while. We get the pacific we want but… I think that’s wrong too. And yea I know by Feb 7 it starts showing a trough. But it keeps pushing that back. Not the pacific but the downstream effects. Not much blue anywhere on that map though outside the Nino n pac low. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Since I know how some react to any non rainbow and unicorns analytical statement I make let me be clear I am very optimistic we will be fine. This is just speculative. The old gefs looks didn’t bother me too much. Yea I didn’t love anything looking that way but I was 90% sure it was out to lunch. This though…is slightly and I mean only slightly troubling. Look at the pac pattern the last week of Jan. 1 should produce a trough at 2! But it’s not. That’s been consistent on the euro for a while. We get the pacific we want but… I think that’s wrong too. And yea I know by Feb 7 it starts showing a trough. But it keeps pushing that back. Not the pacific but the downstream effects. Not much blue anywhere on that map though outside the Nino n pac low. how is "2" not a trough? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Since I know how some react to any non rainbow and unicorns analytical statement I make let me be clear I am very optimistic we will be fine. This is just speculative. The old gefs looks didn’t bother me too much. Yea I didn’t love anything looking that way but I was 90% sure it was out to lunch. This though…is slightly and I mean only slightly troubling. Look at the pac pattern the last week of Jan. 1 should produce a trough at 2! But it’s not. That’s been consistent on the euro for a while. We get the pacific we want but… I think that’s wrong too. And yea I know by Feb 7 it starts showing a trough. But it keeps pushing that back. Not the pacific but the downstream effects. Not much blue anywhere on that map though outside the Nino n pac low. We can never go without SOMETHING to worry about, can we? So we're getting the GEFS full lat ridge idea out of the way (admittedly I zeroed in on watching that after you mentioned it)...but now here's something else, lol Ah well...life in our climo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Since I know how some react to any non rainbow and unicorns analytical statement I make let me be clear I am very optimistic we will be fine. This is just speculative. The old gefs looks didn’t bother me too much. Yea I didn’t love anything looking that way but I was 90% sure it was out to lunch. This though…is slightly and I mean only slightly troubling. Look at the pac pattern the last week of Jan. 1 should produce a trough at 2! But it’s not. That’s been consistent on the euro for a while. We get the pacific we want but… I think that’s wrong too. And yea I know by Feb 7 it starts showing a trough. But it keeps pushing that back. Not the pacific but the downstream effects. Not much blue anywhere on that map though outside the Nino n pac low. Looks like a trof to me, just smoothed over. Granted there aren't pretty Penn State blue colors there, but that look is far from troublesome imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 7 minutes ago, Ji said: how is "2" not a trough? this was never a super cold pattern. Yea our dominant flow is out if the NW and there is some arctic influence. But the main flow into Canada is off the pacific. Historically it’s cold enough though. But what happens if you keep warming the pacific? At some point does that equation just not work anymore? I’m just speculating. My guess is this is missing the trough. Washing it out with warmer members. But we might be headed eventually to a point where the pac is too warm for this to work. If that doesn’t work anymore then we’re left needing some epo pna ridge combo which is extremely rare. We got that in 2014. For a few weeks in Jan 2022. But that’s never been the most common path to our snow. Worse it’s not even a big snowstorm pattern it would be progressive because you usually cant have a block with that kind of full latitude epo pna ridge. I dont think we’re there yet. But if the pac keeps warming eventually that might become the reality. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 15 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: We can never go without SOMETHING to worry about, can we? So we're getting the GEFS full lat ridge idea out of the way (admittedly I zeroed in on watching that after you mentioned it)...but now here's something else, lol Ah well...life in our climo! You skip right to the negative of every post 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now