Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming

[Heisy]

Hot dog emoji


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[TSSN+]

Gfs almost mows us down mid month. Send that about 100 miles south and kaboom 

[cbmclean]

4 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Hot dog emoji


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Pretty, but a day 12 op?

[nj2va]

00z GFS says busy times ahead.  

[Heisy]

Pretty, but a day 12 op?

Obviously a sense of sarcasm in my post. Just carrying over the excitement of the weekend event trends tonight.




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[TSSN+]

Gfs is colddd and active long range. Bring it 

[griteater]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Since I know how some react to any non rainbow and unicorns analytical statement I make let me be clear I am very optimistic we will be fine. This is just speculative. 
 

The old gefs looks didn’t bother me too much. Yea I didn’t love anything looking that way but I was 90% sure it was out to lunch. 
 

This though…is slightly and I mean only slightly troubling. 

Look at the pac pattern the last week of Jan. 1 should produce a trough at 2!  But it’s not.  That’s been consistent on the euro for a while. We get the pacific we want but… 

I think that’s wrong too. And yea I know by Feb 7 it starts showing a trough. But it keeps pushing that back. Not the pacific but the downstream effects.  Not much blue anywhere on that map though outside the Nino n pac low. 

Yeah I've been speculating in my head (dangerous) that this upcoming blocking period mid-late Jan may be the best part of the winter.  I have concerns that when the MJO swings back around by early Feb that it will combine with +AAM and overcharge the Pac jet again and you get that sort of east-based nino look like the weeklies are showing there.  That's a long ways off, but been pondering that.  I think this -NAO episode mid-Jan is going to be a good one though.

[DownpourDave]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

@Stormchaserchuck1…this produced 3 snow events and one of our epic Nino snow runs.  -pna. I think this is where we’re headed. Yes or no, are you saying this wouldn’t work anymore? 

With a -3 or -4 sigma NAO don’t you need a -PNA anyways, like a +PNA wouldn’t work, again long range and analyzing teles are not my strong suite.

[brooklynwx99]

4 minutes ago, griteater said:

Yeah I've been speculating in my head (dangerous) that this upcoming blocking period mid-late Jan may be the best part of the winter.  I have concerns that when the MJO swings back around by early Feb that it will combine with +AAM and overcharge the Pac jet again and you get that sort of east-based nino look like the weeklies are showing there.  That's a long ways off, but been pondering that.  I think this -NAO episode mid-Jan is going to be a good one though.

2015-16 style

that kind of pattern reminds me more of Jan 2011 / Feb 2021 / Mar 2018 though

[Jebman]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

No it’s a Nino. I want all the snow! 
 

Now. Later. Later when it’s now and now when it’s later. I want to steal Docs DeLorean so I can experience the now and later snow at the same damn time. 

This. Sig material lol

[brooklynwx99]

GEFS is on board

[psuhoffman]

25 minutes ago, griteater said:

Yeah I've been speculating in my head (dangerous) that this upcoming blocking period mid-late Jan may be the best part of the winter.  I have concerns that when the MJO swings back around by early Feb that it will combine with +AAM and overcharge the Pac jet again and you get that sort of east-based nino look like the weeklies are showing there.  That's a long ways off, but been pondering that.  I think this -NAO episode mid-Jan is going to be a good one though.

Except pac jet extensions set up epic snow runs in some of the past Nino analogs. That pack looks fine. Should teleconnect to an eastern trough. Of course that was with a less torched pacific sst

 

[psuhoffman]

[CAPE]

Front end thump potential has increased a bit for the Jan 9-10 storm over the last 2 GEFS runs, with the usual places favored in these types of events. A stronger 50-50 low is one reason. Pretty nice surface HP placement and CAD sig with precip on the doorstep of the western zones.

[cbmclean]

6 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

GEFS is on board

I like the extension of the heights into Alaska, but doesn't this screen cold dry/warm wet?

 

 

 

[Heisy]

We saw some step backs last night in LR, let’s hope that doesn’t continue at 12z


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[clskinsfan]

Yeah. The 6Z GFS has a really nice thump with the Tuesday system. I would like to see us dryslot sooner after that. But we take whatever crumbs we can get.

Thumpity thump thump

[Ji]

Bamwx cancelled winter again for 11th time

[anotherman]

Bamwx cancelled winter again for 11th time

They just did a video the other day about how the PV was splitting.

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

Bamwx cancelled winter again for 11th time

Explains Heisy's post above.

[Daniel Boone]

2 hours ago, Heisy said:

We saw some step backs last night in LR, let’s hope that doesn’t continue at 12z


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Yeah, Model reflection of MJO warm phases projection along with Jet Ext..

[aldie 22]

9 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Explains Heisy's post above.

He seems more jumpy than the models

[H2O]

He’s just trendy

[WxUSAF]

GGEM has snow into the cities before the absolute deluge next week. Gfs is damn close also. Both are big hits for I81 corridor.

[Paleocene]

Maybe some more front end action next tues:

 

 

that storm is quite productive with precip:

 

[mattie g]

 

[Kmlwx]

It would be awesome to have some remaining snow cover to keep things cooler ahead of the Tuesday storm. Now we root for a colder trend for more of a front end thump!

[clskinsfan]

GFS brining the goods again for the Tuesday thump. Like 6 inches out here. Sadly it is followed by a torrential dumping of rain. I will be out there standing over my snowboard with an umbrella getting that last measurement.

[Heisy]

So we all knew there was gonna be a western cold dump during this time frame. But still man, what’s it gonna take to get +PNA? Voodoo?


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[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, Heisy said:

So we all knew there was gonna be a western cold dump during this time frame. But still man, what’s it gonna take to get +PNA? Voodoo?


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Still a TPV in Ontario. That's a pretty cold and stormy look