Bob Chill Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 EPS is basically just as sweet but I like the PAC on the GEPS better. The entire d10-15 period looks amazing from a pattern evolution perspective. I mentioned this in the last couple days that the PAC was primed to get right and this panel shows it perfectly. Split flow, all 3 streams meeting somewhere in the middle of the conus, potential shortwaves aimed at us from the pole, pac nw, and some pineapple connection. The magnitude of the west based block showing up at long leads is jaw dropping at this point. Lovin this man. 30 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 52 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: We've seen this stuff in past morph into a weaker solution with a front end thump/dryslot. Ops often back down on strength with big cutters a week out. Get a modest wedge with snow on the ground and I can easily see it be a mixed event with decent accums (2-5"). We've had many in the past buy they aren't too memorable because of dryslot drizzledrip and slush when it shuts off. Either way it looks like a juicy storm cutting west is in the works no matter what. We'll see how it goes Exactly what I said multiple times last night. Snow on the ground = at least some cad and the scenario you wrote 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Storm thread been given. God help us all. 5 9 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Storm thread been given. God help us all.Sona…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Storm thread been given. God help us all. Fare thee well oh weekend of white....we hardly knew ye 1 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 lol at the whole jinx thing on a science based board. It is time for a thread. The threat is legit, and it keeps this thread from getting too cluttered. 7 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 8 hours ago, jayyy said: That’s over a foot in Ellicott city. Not a bad run AT ALL . Agreed!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 32 minutes ago, CAPE said: lol at the whole jinx thing on a science based board. It is time for a thread. The threat is legit, and it keeps this thread from getting too cluttered. Considering we aren’t even able to name anthropogenic climate change when discussing climo is it really a surprise we believe in thread jinxes? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 minute ago, kristia said: My first thought was please no one start a thread Yup thats usually the way to jinx it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 We gotta get through the cutter on the 9th, then see how far west and south the cold dumps around the 11th, but after that we should be in full tracking between 13-20th and beyond . 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Yeah, GEFS has caved to the EPS/GEPS look as @psuhoffman predicted. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Just now, Heisy said: We gotta get through the cutter on the 9th, then see how far west and south the cold dumps around the 11th, but after that we should be in full tracking between 13-20th and beyond . Weren't we in full tracking mode for this weekend until this mornings Euro? Question is if the storm for the 4th is already changing and that is affecting the storm on the 7th then why won't those constant changes mess with the long range? Same ensembles had Saturday looking pretty sweet just yesterday....just sayin man 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Setup for front end possibilities after this weekend looks much better on both the gfs and cmc ops. Better spacing and heights in the wake of the weekend system 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Setup for front end possibilities after this weekend looks much better on both the gfs and cmc ops. Better spacing and heights in the wake of the weekend system It would help a lot to have some snow on the ground heading into that event. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Pretty similar looks between GFS and CMC . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Just now, Heisy said: Pretty similar looks between GFS and CMC . Another cutter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Another cutter? Yea that pattern looks familiar eh? Idk why we can never get a PNA ridge. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Just now, Heisy said: Yea that pattern looks familiar eh? Idk why we can never get a PNA ridge. . Hopefully we get improvements by Mid month. I hate to waste another blocking episode Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 It's whatever. Looks like two cutters set the table and then it is game on for the second half of the month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 11 minutes ago, Heisy said: Yea that pattern looks familiar eh? Idk why we can never get a PNA ridge. . It's just because we're in a nina relax...oh wait 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 It's just because we're in a nina relax...oh wait While this isn’t bad you can see more pronounced SE ridge vs older runs. See what GEFS and eps have to say . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Just now, Heisy said: While this isn’t bad you can see more pronounced SE ridge vs older runs. See what GEFS and eps have to say . That’s good in this case! We don’t want the PV squashing everything to Florida. That weak SE ridge keeps the baroclinic zone nearby. I kinda like that look a lot… 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Omg is a +PNA trying to form???? Prob get some front Enders like others said. KU risk towards end of pattern change as usual. Pretty awesome look come mid month off the GEPS . 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 9 minutes ago, Heisy said: Omg is a +PNA trying to form???? Prob get some front Enders like others said. KU risk towards end of pattern change as usual. Pretty awesome look come mid month off the GEPS . Geps couldn’t be any different then the gefs at day 10. Big battle out west going on for mid month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 14 minutes ago, Allsnow said: eps couldn’t be any different then the gefs at day 10. Big battle out west going on for mid month I thought last I read it was the EPS and GEPS versus the GEFS. Also, thought I read the GEFS was trending to the EPS in the long range. Period of interest was near and after the 20th. I for one believe we must have the Pac on our side to get snow, versus anything else. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 hour ago, frd said: I thought last I read it was the EPS and GEPS versus the GEFS. Also, thought I read the GEFS was trending to the EPS in the long range. Period of interest was near and after the 20th. I for one believe we must have the Pac on our side to get snow, versus anything else. Agree with your last sentence 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 It's been since March 2018 that we had -NAO-based trough/cold in the east. Every other time it has happened with a -PNA or +EPO and we have gone warmer.. I don't really see this trend stopping, the correlation is close to 0.40 since 2019. My roll forwards did show the Pacific changing around 1-19.. The GEFS starts doing it 1-18. But the -NAO happens on the model 1-8/17 with it looks like a slight SE ridge. This is something that I think is going to stick, (we are in the heart of this cycle). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 hour ago, frd said: I thought last I read it was the EPS and GEPS versus the GEFS. Also, thought I read the GEFS was trending to the EPS in the long range. Period of interest was near and after the 20th. I for one believe we must have the Pac on our side to get snow, versus anything else. Geps and eps continue to look great. Gefs still not there yet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: Geps and eps continue to look great. Gefs still not there yet EPS is mint. 3 sigma west based -NAO 6 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 EPS is mint. 3 sigma west based -NAOIf that pattern comes to fruition and we don’t get snow between 15-end of month then I give up lol. . 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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