Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming

[87storms]

2 hours ago, arlwx12 said:

As a warminsta, I'll take the GFS's claim that there's no real threat until MLK weekend.

Sorry (not) for the delay...

I'm a seasonista...I do prefer warmer weather, but I don't feel comfortable with winter feeling like late November (unless I was living in a location where it's expected).

[Stormchaserchuck1]

The December roll forward of +EPO pattern (strongest N. Hemisphere pattern) is doing really well. I said before that a 20-year composite/80 giving +4-6F anomalies for January is/was a strong signal. 

I posted this a week ago, but here is the updated December pattern:

https://ibb.co/thgCjWv

EPO analogs

https://ibb.co/xJgLyJv

The January roll-forward was an interesting SE ridge signal, interesting because El Nino's are usually opposite

https://ibb.co/GHPyQDC

Here was the December temp map

https://ibb.co/fFw0k4K

That +2 to +3c was interesting for January because "a lot of December El Nino's are warm".. well in January they favor an opposite pattern, but not in the strong-EPO-roll forwards. 

Now models are showing a strong N. Pacific High January 5-12, which again is a unique signal.  

The +EPO-Dec roll forward does cool down for February:

https://ibb.co/Mfg08FR

I would guess it goes cooler Jan 25-Feb 15 but I have not done the specific day-by-day charting. It also rolls forward to a warm March fwiw:

https://ibb.co/gV6DwZj

[87storms]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

Just checked EPS and GEFS, they still show a storm signal for Jan 5, as does the op euro. GEPS is more suppressed. The op GFS and op CMC don't show it.

Jan 7-8 storm still there, too, on the ensembles. 

18z GEFS looks better than 12z for that first wave.  Temps are fringe, but if it trends north, maybe the higher elevations can cash in.

[psuhoffman]

3 hours ago, WEATHER53 said:

Agreed

It’s bad when they are wrong. It’s Worse to say they weren’t

These posts below discussing the exact period/warm up that you and Ji are now referencing are from 7-8 days ago…when the period in question was still 16-20 days away. 

 

This possible relax period and warm up has been on guidance and discussed in here since it was 20 days away!  You are entitled to your opinions of NWP and long range forecasting in general. But you are not entitled to gaslighting everyone with BS nonsense.  

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

The December roll forward of +EPO pattern (strongest N. Hemisphere pattern) is doing really well. I said before that a 20-year composite/80 giving +4-6F anomalies for January is/was a strong signal. 

I posted this a week ago, but here is the updated December pattern:

https://ibb.co/thgCjWv

EPO analogs

https://ibb.co/xJgLyJv

The January roll-forward was an interesting SE ridge signal, interesting because El Nino's are usually opposite

https://ibb.co/GHPyQDC

Here was the December temp map

https://ibb.co/fFw0k4K

That +2 to +3c was interesting for January because "a lot of December El Nino's are warm".. well in January they favor an opposite pattern, but not in the strong-EPO-roll forwards. 

Now models are showing a strong Aleutian High January 5-12, which again is not an El Nino signal. 

The roll forward does cool down for February:

https://ibb.co/Mfg08FR

I would guess it goes cooler Jan 25-Feb 15 but I have not done the specific day-by-day charting. It also rolls forward to a warm March:

https://ibb.co/gV6DwZj

I’m not discounting this data…but if you don’t differentiate by enso it might skew the results. A La Niña or even neutral enso season with that same December is much less likely to flip in January. I’d like to see the data for only warm enso seasons. 

[NorthArlington101]

18z GEFS looks better than 12z for that first wave.  Temps are fringe, but if it trends north, maybe the higher elevations can cash in.

Looks best it ever has for the 6-7th wave. Some nice ones in there.

[clskinsfan]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I’d like to see the data for only warm

You want warm? I got you covered:

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

I’m not discounting this data…but if you don’t differentiate by enso it might skew the results. A La Niña or even neutral enso season with that same December is much less likely to flip in January. I’d like to see the data for only warm enso seasons. 

This El Nino is not really effecting the N. Pacific like other ENSO events. For the Winter pattern Dec 1-Jan 15 we are going to have a net +epo/-pna

https://ibb.co/qBFx1bx

Here is since the event began

https://ibb.co/jyfgngk

^that's during this whole El Nino. no negative heights until you get to Alaska. 

[psuhoffman]

3 hours ago, WEATHER53 said:

Jesus

its a month away 

We can agree this is irresponsible from both the people posting this and the media using it for ratings. 

[brooklynwx99]

8 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Looks best it ever has for the 6-7th wave. Some nice ones in there.

southern stream is more amped. strong members in there

[aldie 22]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

We can agree this is irresponsible from both the people posting this and the media using it for ratings. 

You know his response was that month away means more delay right?

[CAPE]

HH for the 7th- a few camps among the members, from milder and NW with the track to colder and suppressed, and the in between scenario. Still a good signal for frozen in general for the MA. Exact details cannot be known at this juncture.

 

[Jebman]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

HH for the 7th- a few camps among the members, from milder and NW with the track to colder and suppressed, and the in between scenario. Still a good signal for frozen in general for the MA. Exact details cannot be known at this juncture.

 

I'll take p23 for 12,000, Alex. That's a winnah.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

3 hours ago, DarkSharkWX said:

They are doing this because -PNA is a strong precip-correlation in January

https://ibb.co/vQZHtKJ

I guess they figure there is a chance that the storm will run into cooler temperatures. This is something I do not agree with. I have seen many times, enough to make it a strong indication, over the last few years that when there is a high pressure in the N. Pacific ocean and a storm cutting up from the south, the cold air becomes cutoff (underrunning SE ridge) and it's mostly rain. This is a trend that does not happen (toward snow) because, it's Pacific driven 

https://ibb.co/nD74TV3

[clskinsfan]

8 minutes ago, CAPE said:

HH for the 7th- a few camps among the members, from milder and NW with the track to colder and suppressed, and the in between scenario. Still a good signal for frozen in general for the MA. Exact details cannot be known at this juncture.

 

About 50/50 dreg though. I guess we take 50/50 at this point. What else do we have?

[psuhoffman]

27 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

This El Nino is not really effecting the N. Pacific like other ENSO events. For the Winter pattern Dec 1-Jan 15 we are going to have a net +epo/-pna

https://ibb.co/qBFx1bx

Here is since the event began

https://ibb.co/jyfgngk

^that's during this whole El Nino. no negative heights until you get to Alaska. 

Or is it behaving like a -pdo Nino. 3 past -pdo period ninos. All did flip colder and snowier.  But only 1 produced a lot of snow. Luckily it’s the best analog imo so far. 

[psuhoffman]

3 hours ago, Terpeast said:

He said that because of the MJO being favored in the warm phases due to 30+ ssts in the MC, the models would correct warmer as lead times shorten. 

[Bluewave, if you're reading this: Nice job, you take this round.]

At least he said that El Nino winters are best judged for the period after Jan 15 through the end of Feb, and anything that happens before that isn't relevant due to nino climatology. So there's that.

For years now from time to time I leave the same question to the “warminista” members who often take over in the main threads. “So what would you want to see to predict a cold/snowy winter in the mid Atlantic”. I get one of two replies…silence, or some ridiculous list of variables that it’s unlikely we ever get them all lined up. 
 

What I’ve realized is what they’re actually implying is it’s almost impossible, given the pacific cycle we are in combined with “that which shall not be named” for us to get a true cold/snowy winter. Given the last 8 years there is ample evidence they could be right. Maybe we just don’t want to admit it. As I’ve said this winter is the test. If the current enso can’t counterbalance the various hostile pacific factors we’ve discussed we’re pretty much F’d.  Especially since there is also ample evidence those pacific influences aren’t all random but somewhat linked to “that which won’t be named”. 

[Deck Pic]

5 hours ago, Ji said:

looks like cold rain!

it's not that warm at the surface..maybe mid 30s.  It's not that hard to get 2-3" of snow in Leesburg after a changeover on January 4th.   You did it like 24 times in 2012-13

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

For years now from time to time I leave the same question to the “warminista” members who often take over in the main threads. “So what would you want to see to predict a cold/snowy winter in the mid Atlantic”. I get one of two replies…silence, or some ridiculous list of variables that it’s unlikely we ever get them all lined up. 
 

What I’ve realized is what they’re actually implying is it’s almost impossible, given the pacific cycle we are in combined with “that which shall not be named” for us to get a true cold/snowy winter. Given the last 8 years there is ample evidence they could be right. Maybe we just don’t want to admit it. As I’ve said this winter is the test. If the current enso can’t counterbalance the various hostile pacific factors we’ve discussed we’re pretty much F’d.  Especially since there is also ample evidence those pacific influences aren’t all random but somewhat linked to “that which won’t be named”. 

Yeah, I’ve been following those pointed questions and the radio silence that followed. 

Why don’t they just come right out and say it’s virtually impossible? 

Maybe they’re afraid that mother nature will throw yet another curveball that catches them with their pants down. 

I mean, come on. I’d have a lot more respect for them if they put forth their own winter outlooks at the risk of getting it wrong. And own it.

[Deck Pic]

11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Or is it behaving like a -pdo Nino. 3 past -pdo period ninos. All did flip colder and snowier.  But only 1 produced a lot of snow. Luckily it’s the best analog imo so far. 

I'd take 04-05 and 06-07 in a heartbeat.  We never thought the PV would leave Alaska in 2006

[Stormchaserchuck1]

42 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Or is it behaving like a -pdo Nino. 3 past -pdo period ninos. All did flip colder and snowier.  But only 1 produced a lot of snow. Luckily it’s the best analog imo so far. 

Yeah we are right in the heart of this -PDO phase huh. Since 1998 and more so, 2008. This is why I'm worried February could be a -PNA month, it has been the hardest hit month of the current cycle. 

(v ignore some of my weird comments) 

The last +PDO La Nina was 1983-84.. I don't know here you go, agreement. 1 La Nina +PDO analogs since 1948:

https://ibb.co/txmC0Sf

(I think we were due for some -pdo/el nino's, +pdo/la nina's,  and also due for some ENSO events that don't impact the atmosphere so completely)

[clskinsfan]

6 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I’d have a lot more respect for them if they put forth their own winter outlooks at the risk of getting it wrong. And own it.

I went huge this year. Normal Nino huge. And I think I am going to bust badly. You all are way smarter than me when it comes to this. I base everything on my past obs basically. And I dont think those past obs mean anything anymore. Things are changing rapidly at this point imo.  

[RIC_WX]

3 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

I'd take 04-05 and 06-07 in a heartbeat.  We never thought the PV would leave Alaska in 2006

January 07 suggests we’ll need shorts before shovels.  All these years did flip eventually which is encouraging, still skeptical of the 20th century analogs.

[IronTy]

11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

What I’ve realized is what they’re actually implying is it’s almost impossible, given the pacific cycle we are in combined with “that which shall not be named” for us to get a true cold/snowy winter. Given the last 8 years there is ample evidence they could be right. Maybe we just don’t want to admit it.

There's hope for you yet!

[Stormchaserchuck1]

The N. Pacific ridge is not necessarily a global warming variable

https://ibb.co/4TTP0Wm

[Maestrobjwa]

26 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Yeah, I’ve been following those pointed questions and the radio silence that followed. 

Why don’t they just come right out and say it’s virtually impossible? 

Maybe they’re afraid that mother nature will throw yet another curveball that catches them with their pants down. 

I mean, come on. I’d have a lot more respect for them if they put forth their own winter outlooks at the risk of getting it wrong. And own it.

Simply (or maybe not so simply)...I think those that have such responses, and snow lovers in general, don't want to admit it's a possibility (not 100% certain but possible) that the snow climo could be permanently altered. I don't think any of us WANT that to be true...so is the resistance/cognitive dissonance really such a surprise? And of course there are those that don't want to be wrong anyway, lol

I think we need to be real about where things may be, yet understanding of how we're feeling about the POSSIBILITY of a new reality. No matter what, anybody that loves snow may have to adjust if it's true because it would potentially suck for everybody...so let's just be patient with each other as we grapple with that possibility.

[DarkSharkWX]

we are following the jan 2016 progression right now, but maybe around a week earlier

patience is needed

[CAPE]

End of the latest EPS run-

Latest Euro Weeklies- the pattern progression through the mid Jan period.

Go ahead and freak out about the latest GEFS runs, even though the advertised pattern progression doesn't align with Nino forcing, and looks more Nina like. I'll go with the higher res/better track record of the Euro on this one. Could be wrong. My guess is that those who think the GEFS is more correct are predisposed to expecting the worst case scenario.

[cbmclean]

5 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said:

we are following the jan 2016 progression right now, but maybe around a week earlier

patience is needed


 

Did 2016 have a period in early January where a NPAC ridge threw a wrench in things?

ETA: I meant ridge, not trough.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

4 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said:

we are following the jan 2016 progression right now, but maybe around a week earlier

patience is needed

Actually we have a huge N. Pacific ridge on 18z GFS ensembles Jan 5-13. I was about to look up ENSO-matching analogs, but it appears 15-16 does not fit that pattern on those dates.