Deck Pic Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 2 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said: got better.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Just now, clskinsfan said: Yeah it's roasting at 850. But it is an outlier with the setup going in. Just gotta hope it's wrong Is it still a precursor to the euro lol? It seems like it's wrong alot in regards to winter storms for us. Ussually the opposite though as in years past its given false hope when other models went to shit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 The 18z gfs ensembles had a lot of rain members. One even tracked the low into Chicago 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 13 minutes ago, nj2va said: Spending too much time parsing the Canadian but interesting how more modest WxBell is When Wxbell and SV differ, usually Wxbell is right. In this case, I don't think SV's canadian is run at the same resolution so it's coarser. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 GEFS very boom or bust, I'll take P23 with a side of P28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 7 minutes ago, SnowDreamer said: GEFS very boom or bust, I'll take P23 with a side of P28 Sounds like a snow job lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 8 minutes ago, SnowDreamer said: GEFS very boom or bust, I'll take P23 with a side of P28 I count at least 17 out of 30 that give me more than 6” I’ll take for nearly 5 days out. Always look boom or bust this far away . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 18 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Yes they do, we just don't monitor them obsessively for 28 model runs across 5 models. Well, maybe @Jebman does. I do, and I often wish we had fifteen models. Tracking is so addictive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 GEPS is basically a hold serve on the clown maps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 hour ago, Ji said: this is exactly why i was so nervous a few days when the Jan 7 storm looked like it might be heading towards the toilet. We would be at zero inches by January 15th for the winter with nothing in sight for the most part. We would have been relaying then on a HECS to save winter. Getting this storm is really really really critical In a Nino we can go on a run fast if things line up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 23 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: When Wxbell and SV differ, usually Wxbell is right. In this case, I don't think SV's canadian is run at the same resolution so it's coarser. The SV doesn’t differentiate between ice and snow. It’s counting the freezing rain at 10-1. Doesn’t matter the Canadian thermals are ridiculous. Colder at the surface and a torch in the mids. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Ggem progression is odd. Way less amplified SW but runs the surface system way out in front almost like a warm front. It’s a mess compared to all other guidance. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 The op gfs agrees with the eps pattern progression in the day 10-16 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 i dont care that much anymore. at this point the operational should hold more value right? we are in almost NAM distance awayNAM at 84 hours isn’t even NAM distance lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 GEPS went all in with the eps. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shaulov4 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: GEPS went all in with the eps. I better prepare my deep winter jackets. Been wearing a sweater for the past 2 years.... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 We are very likely going to get another jet extension mid January. That’s good! Yes it’s going to torch Canada. Also good, they’re very warm (by their standards) during almost all of our big Nino snow blitzes. It’s not December anymore. An extended jet in January has set up most of our Nino snowstorms! 2016 2010 1987 1983 1966 1958 I’m putting this here now because If we end up being too warm I don’t want to hear it’s because of the pacific jet. Yes the pac jet will extend and crash into the west coast. Yes it will flood Canada with pac puke. But with blocking and a split flow stj systems should slide under and in the past there was enough domestic cold to snow here. That’s the game plan. Not to have Canada be some icebox and advect that cold here. That’s not how we get big snow events in a Nino. 9 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 At 84 hours euro has slightly better confluence ahead of the wave than its 12z run. Still early though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 The euro is beautiful y'all....slower, colder, slightly less moist 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 ECMWF is coming south 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 I want to say I have a good feeling but don’t want to jinx it. Looks colder. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Oh it’s COLDER leading in 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Gonna like the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Just now, psuhoffman said: I want to say I have a good feeling but don’t want to jinx it. Looks colder. since we're all at like hour 138, you're good 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Oh it’s COLDER leading in yup. better confluence and HP 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 minute ago, Deck Pic said: The euro is beautiful y'all....slower, colder, slightly less moist 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: ECMWF is coming south I didn’t want to overstate it. I’ve make early observations then a run went sideways. But very early on it looked better over the top. Better confluence. Colder antecedent airmass. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Just now, psuhoffman said: I didn’t want to overstate it. I’ve make early observations then a run went sideways. But very early on it looked better over the top. Better confluence. Colder antecedent airmass. This is what a flatter, colder, slower storm looks like. It's really better for almost everyone. The usual folks will still win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I didn’t want to overstate it. I’ve make early observations then a run went sideways. But very early on it looked better over the top. Better confluence. Colder antecedent airmass. love to see it 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Giddy up 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 3 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: This is what a flatter, colder, slower storm looks like. It's really better for almost everyone. The usual folks will still win 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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