Weather Will Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Start to see a CAD for Tues system? Fun times ahead! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Just now, Weather Will said: Start to see a CAD gir Tues system? Fun times ahead! looks like a warm cad 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 6 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said: one thing i noticed on the gfs was that our vort over OK digs more and shunts it N, id assume its a part of why we saw a N shift Also more spacing. I think this event gained almost a full day from when we started tracking. Models have it starting around 1-3 pm saturday So by 18z tomorrow, we’ll be tracking an event at inside 96 hours 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 GFS has sped this event up like 12 hours compared to when it was coming on yesterdays runs . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Here you go guys I've seen these maps verify the best since they started coming out... The temps are too marginal for good snowstorm. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 10 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Cmc is a massive sleet bomb here. Haven't had one of those for a while. It's still pretty good for you. Not saying it's right, but a solution like this is possible. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Just now, Terpeast said: Also more spacing. I think this event gained almost a full day from when we started tracking. Models have it starting around 1-3 pm saturday Definitely this started out as a late Saturday night - Daytime Sunday event. Most models have it out by Sunrise Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 11 hours ago, WxUSAF said: I agree to 72 hours or so, but there also is a tendency for follow the leader with the ops and ensembles lately. Maybe someone like @high risk or @dtk can speak to studies of how nondispersive they seem to be in recent years. The last GEFS upgrade (Fall 2020) switched the system to the FV3 model core and among many improvements, the spread was increased (as intended), and the extra spread was largely meaningful spread. That said, the GFS had a fairly significant upgrade (to version 16) after the GEFS upgrade, and the GEFS has not received the corresponding update. Overall, it still feels to me like the GEFS responds to GFS trends more than it should, consistent with the observation by@WxUSAF that there seems to be an element of follow the leader. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Here you go guys I've seen these maps verify the best since they started coming out... da f-k is this? 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: da f-k is this? more accurate representation of model 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 i think the panic comes from the tight gradient and the fact that we're still so far outThe goal posts have tightened substantially from just a day or two ago, but there’s still going to be waffling on exact jackpot zones for qpf, the exact location of the R/S line, timing of the transfer to the coast, etc. It’s all noise. 50 miles here, 25 miles there. We’ve seen this song and dance before. Models trend north as we hit day 4-5 and then they settle back south leading up to game time as models get better sampling on the confluence leading in. Sure, we’d love for models to show 12+ in our backyards for 5 straight days, but we all know that rarely happens. Looking very solid for many of us right now. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: more accurate Stop posting that crap. Looks like it was developed by a potato 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 4 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: It's still pretty good for you. Not saying it's right, but a solution like this is possible. Spending too much time parsing the Canadian but interesting how more modest WxBell is 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Ukie looks like a disaster. Def don’t want a LP at this location . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 High stronger and bit more west next run and back to real good again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Canadian did shift east tonight with the storm track. The snow didn't seem to adjust east with it though lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 minute ago, Heisy said: Ukie looks like a disaster. Def don’t want a LP at this location . No high to the north at all. That would probably be the worst case scenario 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 I’m gonna hug the ICON and hope it scores a coup. But seriously, not going to get worried at this point. Keep calm and carry on 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 No high to the north at all. That would probably be the worst case scenarioNinja’d by Terp. No high = LP railroads through the coastline. We’ll see what the euro has to say later on. Not too worried at the moment. Especially up my way. If the Euro / GFS hold serve, that’s all I need to remain confident going into the 4 day range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 the GFS looks slightly different at for Jan 12 than at 18z lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: No high to the north at all. That would probably be the worst case scenario these wobbles never happen with rainstorms... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 0z GEFS held serve 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Just now, Terpeast said: 0z GEFS held serve 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 5 minutes ago, Heisy said: Ukie looks like a disaster. Def don’t want a LP at this location . It is a disaster. You got to go up into Central PA to find snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Good luck with EURO, have to get 3 flours more sleep to catch the early train! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 It's not worth stayi.. see you at 1:15 1 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 minute ago, Chris78 said: It is a disaster. You got to go up into Central PA to find snow. Yeah it's roasting at 850. But it is an outlier with the setup going in. Just gotta hope it's wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: 0z GEFS held serve i dont care that much anymore. at this point the operational should hold more value right? we are in almost NAM distance away 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 4 minutes ago, Ji said: these wobbles never happen with rainstorms... Yes they do, we just don't monitor them obsessively for 28 model runs across 5 models. Well, maybe @Jebman does. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now