clskinsfan Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Has there been a model run minus the 12z Canadian where you haven’t been forecast a 1’ or more of snow? Maybe I’m naive, but I’d be willing to wager a good sum that I-81 gets a 6”+ snowstorm at this juncture. Imagine the stress you’d be feeling in the lowlands Oh I know the lowlands stress. That's why I moved 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnis Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 4 minutes ago, Scraff said: Pass. Hi I’m the new JI. Lol! New Ji come out to DTC on Saturday and I’ll buy you a beer! (I know… banter) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Icon just did it.Fine… 8”+ then 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Although the SE Canada high retreated NE a bit, allowing the warm nose a bit north, note the second H north of MN. That’s new - wasn’t there before. Could be a new trend with better backside snows. Or it could be a blip? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Just now, DarkSharkWX said: This isnt even that bad Speak for yourself. Tho I fully anticipate having a heavy rain storm at some point. Hoping to sneak 2” of snow, it would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Just now, DarkSharkWX said: This isnt even that bad Nope not bad at all!! This would still be the biggest snowstorm in central Maryland in last 3 or 4 years lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 2 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said: This isnt even that bad I would sign on this in a heartbeat. Not sure what all the panic is about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Just now, ravensrule said: I would sign on this in a heartbeat. Not sure what all the panic is about. i think the panic comes from the tight gradient and the fact that we're still so far out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: Although the SE Canada high retreated NE a bit, allowing the warm nose a bit north, note the second H north of MN. That’s new - wasn’t there before. Could be a new trend with better backside snows. Or it could be a blip? WVA gettin boned. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 5 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: I might travel for this one. I'm gonna wait until Friday probably to decide. Whitetail might be in store for Sunday if it’s any warmer than this… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Nope not bad at all!! This would still be the biggest snowstorm in central Maryland in last 3 or 4 years lolThat’s over a foot in Ellicott city. Not a bad run AT ALL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Well crap! CMC looks north as well. Well, let's hope it gets better tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Just now, AtlanticWx said: i think the panic comes from the tight gradient and the fact that we're still so far out I mean the panic over one run. Sure if we get 6 straight runs like this i get it. Either way for my neck of the woods i would take this in a heartbeat. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Wouldn’t trust the cmc with a 10 foot pole right now. Looks like it’s taking a step towards euro/gfs progression. Give it another day or so . 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Just now, midatlanticweather said: Well crap! CMC looks north as well. Well, let's hope it gets better tomorrow. Crap model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Confluence a bit weaker, which is why the r/s line moved north. But there are also timing differences, and more spacing between the western vort 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Just now, midatlanticweather said: Well crap! CMC looks north as well. Well, let's hope it gets better tomorrow. no cmc shifted S, still a way to go but better than last run 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 9 minutes ago, umdterps29 said: Question on these maps… is there a real mixing risk out at Deep Creek or is that just some weird output with these types of maps? Most likely a Wx Bell output issue. 850s are below 0 at Deep Creek throughout the storm. If the primary tracks into the OH Valley and ruins the mid levels, Deep Creek could mix. I’ve seen in these setups, unless the primary tracks well into the oh valley or the coastal is tracking over central VA, Deep Creek will stay snow. Deep Creek will stay snow in these setups while Snowshoe and Canaan may flip to sleet or rain given their higher elevation, depending on the setup. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 4 minutes ago, ravensrule said: I would sign on this in a heartbeat. Not sure what all the panic is about. I would too, but I’m not sure I believe this map if it were to play out with those temp profiles. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Just now, Fozz said: I would too, but I’m not sure I believe this map if it were to play out with those temp profiles. I hear you. Regardless it’s one run. I’m not sweating anything. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Cmc is a massive sleet bomb here. Haven't had one of those for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 here is dynamic slr/cobb ratio(takes in account all layers of atmosphere + rates better) 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 5 minutes ago, ravensrule said: I would sign on this in a heartbeat. Not sure what all the panic is about. Like my mother in law, we just like to complain about anything and everything. Good or bad. Man I hope she’s not reading in here tonight. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Just now, ravensrule said: I hear you. Regardless it’s one run. I’m not sweating anything. Yeah at this point cautious optimism is the way to go. A lot could change. It’s great to have a legit storm to track. And best of all if this doesn’t work IMBY there’s always ski country. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 GFS temps are at or above freezing for a good chunk of the event. Snow of course can absolutely accumulate at those temps with good rates, particularly if it falls after dark Saturday night, but 10:1 is likely to be too high for the SLR. 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 7 minutes ago, Fozz said: Whitetail might be in store for Sunday if it’s any warmer than this… WT might be a good spot in general if you wanna ski in the snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 2 hours ago, Daniel Boone said: My Uncle and Cousins lived in NW Ohio. They never get over that one. Amazing ! That was big news for quite a while..I think some already said 50+ Sustained for like 20 consecutive hours, wasn’t there an insane 82 mph gust? Rare for east coaster me to remember one there, The 28.12 lowest baro around here March 1993 had lengthy 40+ sustained but not 50+ 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 14 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Speaking of 12z CMC, 00z sticks to that script. FRZA for favored zones. Rain for the rest. Definitely one of the worst case scenarios were not getting freezing rain. its either snow/sleet or rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 one thing i noticed on the gfs was that our vort over OK digs more and shunts it N, id assume its a part of why we saw a N shift 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 6 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said: here is dynamic slr/cobb ratio(takes in account all layers of atmosphere + rates better) Looks great to me. Not so much for DC. I’m due though, I basically got skunked last time when DC got 10”. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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