clskinsfan Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 Cmc is a massive sleet bomb here. Haven't had one of those for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 here is dynamic slr/cobb ratio(takes in account all layers of atmosphere + rates better) 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 5 minutes ago, ravensrule said: I would sign on this in a heartbeat. Not sure what all the panic is about. Like my mother in law, we just like to complain about anything and everything. Good or bad. Man I hope she’s not reading in here tonight. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 Just now, ravensrule said: I hear you. Regardless it’s one run. I’m not sweating anything. Yeah at this point cautious optimism is the way to go. A lot could change. It’s great to have a legit storm to track. And best of all if this doesn’t work IMBY there’s always ski country. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 GFS temps are at or above freezing for a good chunk of the event. Snow of course can absolutely accumulate at those temps with good rates, particularly if it falls after dark Saturday night, but 10:1 is likely to be too high for the SLR. 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 2 hours ago, Daniel Boone said: My Uncle and Cousins lived in NW Ohio. They never get over that one. Amazing ! That was big news for quite a while..I think some already said 50+ Sustained for like 20 consecutive hours, wasn’t there an insane 82 mph gust? Rare for east coaster me to remember one there, The 28.12 lowest baro around here March 1993 had lengthy 40+ sustained but not 50+ 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 14 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Speaking of 12z CMC, 00z sticks to that script. FRZA for favored zones. Rain for the rest. Definitely one of the worst case scenarios were not getting freezing rain. its either snow/sleet or rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 one thing i noticed on the gfs was that our vort over OK digs more and shunts it N, id assume its a part of why we saw a N shift 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 6 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said: here is dynamic slr/cobb ratio(takes in account all layers of atmosphere + rates better) Looks great to me. Not so much for DC. I’m due though, I basically got skunked last time when DC got 10”. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 Start to see a CAD for Tues system? Fun times ahead! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 Just now, Weather Will said: Start to see a CAD gir Tues system? Fun times ahead! looks like a warm cad 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 6 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said: one thing i noticed on the gfs was that our vort over OK digs more and shunts it N, id assume its a part of why we saw a N shift Also more spacing. I think this event gained almost a full day from when we started tracking. Models have it starting around 1-3 pm saturday So by 18z tomorrow, we’ll be tracking an event at inside 96 hours 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 GFS has sped this event up like 12 hours compared to when it was coming on yesterdays runs . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 Here you go guys I've seen these maps verify the best since they started coming out... The temps are too marginal for good snowstorm. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 Just now, Terpeast said: Also more spacing. I think this event gained almost a full day from when we started tracking. Models have it starting around 1-3 pm saturday Definitely this started out as a late Saturday night - Daytime Sunday event. Most models have it out by Sunrise Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 11 hours ago, WxUSAF said: I agree to 72 hours or so, but there also is a tendency for follow the leader with the ops and ensembles lately. Maybe someone like @high risk or @dtk can speak to studies of how nondispersive they seem to be in recent years. The last GEFS upgrade (Fall 2020) switched the system to the FV3 model core and among many improvements, the spread was increased (as intended), and the extra spread was largely meaningful spread. That said, the GFS had a fairly significant upgrade (to version 16) after the GEFS upgrade, and the GEFS has not received the corresponding update. Overall, it still feels to me like the GEFS responds to GFS trends more than it should, consistent with the observation by@WxUSAF that there seems to be an element of follow the leader. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: da f-k is this? more accurate representation of model 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 i think the panic comes from the tight gradient and the fact that we're still so far outThe goal posts have tightened substantially from just a day or two ago, but there’s still going to be waffling on exact jackpot zones for qpf, the exact location of the R/S line, timing of the transfer to the coast, etc. It’s all noise. 50 miles here, 25 miles there. We’ve seen this song and dance before. Models trend north as we hit day 4-5 and then they settle back south leading up to game time as models get better sampling on the confluence leading in. Sure, we’d love for models to show 12+ in our backyards for 5 straight days, but we all know that rarely happens. Looking very solid for many of us right now. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: more accurate Stop posting that crap. Looks like it was developed by a potato 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 4 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: It's still pretty good for you. Not saying it's right, but a solution like this is possible. Spending too much time parsing the Canadian but interesting how more modest WxBell is 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 Ukie looks like a disaster. Def don’t want a LP at this location . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 High stronger and bit more west next run and back to real good again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 Canadian did shift east tonight with the storm track. The snow didn't seem to adjust east with it though lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 1 minute ago, Heisy said: Ukie looks like a disaster. Def don’t want a LP at this location . No high to the north at all. That would probably be the worst case scenario 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 I’m gonna hug the ICON and hope it scores a coup. But seriously, not going to get worried at this point. Keep calm and carry on 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 No high to the north at all. That would probably be the worst case scenarioNinja’d by Terp. No high = LP railroads through the coastline. We’ll see what the euro has to say later on. Not too worried at the moment. Especially up my way. If the Euro / GFS hold serve, that’s all I need to remain confident going into the 4 day range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 the GFS looks slightly different at for Jan 12 than at 18z lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: No high to the north at all. That would probably be the worst case scenario these wobbles never happen with rainstorms... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 0z GEFS held serve 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 Just now, Terpeast said: 0z GEFS held serve 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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