psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 3 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said: if anyone is interested Nope, can't think of anyone 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: Icon also speeding up the storm, as has the other models. the speed up trend is for real good. gets there sooner when the confluence is better established 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 Ok stupid question here lol.... exactly how accurate is the icon?? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 Ever so slightly more zoomed in WxBell version of the ICON 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The Germans are Fing with us Unfortunately it’s not the first time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 4 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said: if anyone is interested Zoomed in 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: an aside before we head into storm mode: you like weathermodels? I occasionally find myself in the “free” version (weather.us) and am always impressed with the array of stuff there. I’m just so used to WxBell yeah i have weathermodels bc it has most of the weatherbell stuff for a good amount cheaper, there is a lot of cool stuff and it usually comes out at around the same speed including euro/eps offruns 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That was one of the oddest cases of any HECS storm for the mid atlantic. Initially there was a STJ system crossing the 4 corners as a stronger cut off system dove into the Dakotas out of Canada. They phased over the upper midwest and 99% of the time that would have been game over for us except we had maybe the most ridiculous block ever preventing anything from cutting and forced the closed upper low to continue southeastward. It did still have a STJ connection, there was a weak wave down in the gulf with a moisture feed up into the system but the dominant feature was always the NS system that dove due south out of Canada then turned southeast and continued southeast right across VA. I guess I would categorize it as a hybrid but it was as close to a NS miller b as any in that subset. That setup would never work again unless we had that kind of block. Some images from that system So it sounds like it was at least 80% NS-driven, so might as well be considered a Miller B. That was probably the most intense snowstorm I've ever seen IMBY, with the way it just blew up at the perfect moment to clobber all of northern MD. Made even the other historic storms look very gentle, so I can see why a setup like that so rarely works out for us, whereas coastal New England is probably much more familiar with that type of system. I do remember many posters being nervous and skeptical of whether it would even work out, in spite of the perfect H5 vort passes that were modeled (probably due to the insane NAO), just because that type of Miller B screws us over nearly every other time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 6 minutes ago, nj2va said: Gutentag. I like seeing that 6” line down in the Northern Neck, personally. Me too! Hoping living NW of FXBG will really help with this one. ICON is a good start! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 4 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: Ok stupid question here lol.... exactly how accurate is the icon?? Lol 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 Just now, EastCoast NPZ said: Yup thats what i figured!! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeeDeeHCue Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 We’re now, what, under 120 hours from when this system enters the Mid-Atlantic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 WB 0Z GFS 7pm Friday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: This storm is kind of simple for the global models. So I think some people will issue determinative forecasts too early. Every local TV station plus the national news tonight, was talking about it already. Pretty unusual 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 3 minutes ago, DeeDeeHCue said: We’re now, what, under 120 hours from when this system enters the Mid-Atlantic? Getting close to that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 This storm is kind of simple for the global models. So I think some people will issue determinative forecasts too early. The hype is going to be out of control. Especially since we haven’t had anything like this for awhile. I already have people sharing pictures of snow maps from Facebook with me. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 A little bit stronger vort this run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 2, 2024 Author Share Posted January 2, 2024 Just now, Deck Pic said: GFS is a torch....ouch...low plows inland Yup, a bit ugly for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 4pm Sat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 Gfs back north again. I’m not worried about it, it’s been back and forth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 It’s not far off being great and is awesome for many… let’s not jump too far off the ledge. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 2, 2024 Author Share Posted January 2, 2024 3 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: GFS is a torch....ouch...low plows inland Backside isn't bad tho 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 4 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: GFS is a torch....ouch...low plows inland You scared me. It still gives me almost 10”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 7 minutes ago, ravensrule said: Every local TV station plus the national news tonight, was talking about it already. Pretty unusual long tracking threats are gonna work alot better with Ninos than northern stream dominated winters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Backside isn't bad tho That’s not the first time I have heard you say that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 It's amazing out here obviously. But that is too close for comfort even here. Icon east, gfs west. Here comes a few days of model mayhem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 About 6 hours faster with precip, wobble’s expected. Wobble baby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 Pass. Hi I’m the new JI. ETA: I need the wiper blades to swing back the other way by tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 Post 135 or 138 when you get to it. This is really a crushing for Winchester > Ctown > WestminsterIt’s not the magic ICON run for the cities… but I assume we’d all take (tho I would travel to I-81 personally)? Even if a little reluctantly as cities flip to heavy rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 2, 2024 Author Share Posted January 2, 2024 Can't say I'm all that worried right now. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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