Maestrobjwa Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: it always does that lol It just amazes me that when we're tracking something, no matter what hour...those panels are missing, haha Reverse extrapolation ftw... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 it always does that lol It’s coming in slowly on WxBell but it’s a mauling for almost all of us with plenty of wiggle room SE of cities… maybe even best down there. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 It's out on weather.us....it's a drubbing. Way better for you eastern guys. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: It just amazes me that when we're tracking something, no matter what hour...those panels are missing, haha Reverse extrapolation ftw... The Germans are Fing with us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Love hearing that the JV model is another mauling, but the Varsity team just took the field. Come on GooFuS!! Let’s do this!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 if anyone is interested 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It depends how things turn after the cutter on the 10th, which we still possibly could start as some frozen if we get lucky with the details. But after that there is a huge difference in how the EPS and GEFS progress the pattern with the GEPS somewhere in the middle. Neither is stacked immediately after although if the EPS is correct I definitely could see us getting some frozen from a progressive boundary wave in the 12-17th time period, although another cutter is possible if something phases and is too amplified. If the GEFS is right almost anything, even a progressive wave will cut well west of us in this time period. After that again depends on which guidance wins out...the EPS slowly shifts the trough southeast under the block as the pacific resumes a more nino look. Eventually by the 18th or so we could be chasing a big storm again. The GEFS on the other hand goes off the rails and the extended goes towards a full nina look and even flips the AO/NAO positive and frankly looks like 2020 and last winter by late January and implies winter is over after this Jan 7 storm. I do not think the GEFS is correct. The EPS matches my expected progression for the season so why would I favor the less accurate guidance that goes against history. But....I still will feel better when it caves! Thought it was in the process of caving yesterday then it reverted to full on disaster. I expect it will cave soon but I will do a shot in relief when that happens. this is exactly why i was so nervous a few days when the Jan 7 storm looked like it might be heading towards the toilet. We would be at zero inches by January 15th for the winter with nothing in sight for the most part. We would of been relaying then on a HECS to save winter. Getting this storm is really really really critical 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Just now, DarkSharkWX said: if anyone is interested im moving east to DC. Just need about a 800,000 dollar loan 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Icon is 6-8 SNOWDEPTH. area wide. Including the cities. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: It’s coming in slowly on WxBell but it’s a mauling for almost all of us with plenty of wiggle room SE of cities… maybe even best down there. Gutentag. I like seeing that 6” line down in the Northern Neck, personally. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 NE MD PUMMELED lol 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Just now, clskinsfan said: Icon is 6-8 SNOWDEPTH. area wide. Including the cities. ya dawg....that aint gonna work for me. I need double digits 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Icon also speeding up the storm, as has the other models. the speed up trend is for real 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 if anyone is interestedan aside before we head into storm mode: you like weathermodels? I occasionally find myself in the “free” version (weather.us) and am always impressed with the array of stuff there. I’m just so used to WxBell 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 ICON is good, especially for SE of 95. LP is Miller A-esque (don't hate me). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Definitely no shortage of precip. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 3 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said: if anyone is interested Nope, can't think of anyone 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: Icon also speeding up the storm, as has the other models. the speed up trend is for real good. gets there sooner when the confluence is better established 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Ok stupid question here lol.... exactly how accurate is the icon?? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Ever so slightly more zoomed in WxBell version of the ICON 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The Germans are Fing with us Unfortunately it’s not the first time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 4 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said: if anyone is interested Zoomed in 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: an aside before we head into storm mode: you like weathermodels? I occasionally find myself in the “free” version (weather.us) and am always impressed with the array of stuff there. I’m just so used to WxBell yeah i have weathermodels bc it has most of the weatherbell stuff for a good amount cheaper, there is a lot of cool stuff and it usually comes out at around the same speed including euro/eps offruns 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That was one of the oddest cases of any HECS storm for the mid atlantic. Initially there was a STJ system crossing the 4 corners as a stronger cut off system dove into the Dakotas out of Canada. They phased over the upper midwest and 99% of the time that would have been game over for us except we had maybe the most ridiculous block ever preventing anything from cutting and forced the closed upper low to continue southeastward. It did still have a STJ connection, there was a weak wave down in the gulf with a moisture feed up into the system but the dominant feature was always the NS system that dove due south out of Canada then turned southeast and continued southeast right across VA. I guess I would categorize it as a hybrid but it was as close to a NS miller b as any in that subset. That setup would never work again unless we had that kind of block. Some images from that system So it sounds like it was at least 80% NS-driven, so might as well be considered a Miller B. That was probably the most intense snowstorm I've ever seen IMBY, with the way it just blew up at the perfect moment to clobber all of northern MD. Made even the other historic storms look very gentle, so I can see why a setup like that so rarely works out for us, whereas coastal New England is probably much more familiar with that type of system. I do remember many posters being nervous and skeptical of whether it would even work out, in spite of the perfect H5 vort passes that were modeled (probably due to the insane NAO), just because that type of Miller B screws us over nearly every other time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 6 minutes ago, nj2va said: Gutentag. I like seeing that 6” line down in the Northern Neck, personally. Me too! Hoping living NW of FXBG will really help with this one. ICON is a good start! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 4 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: Ok stupid question here lol.... exactly how accurate is the icon?? Lol 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Just now, EastCoast NPZ said: Yup thats what i figured!! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeeDeeHCue Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 We’re now, what, under 120 hours from when this system enters the Mid-Atlantic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 10 minutes ago, Ji said: ya dawg....that aint gonna work for me. I need double digits This storm is kind of simple for the global models. So I think some people will issue determinative forecasts too early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 WB 0Z GFS 7pm Friday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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