Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming

[nj2va]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

If we didnt have this storm....where is the next threat coming from? Nothing really stood out looking at the long range? Maybe the 12th/13th?

2 days ago, this threat didn’t pop up on most people’s radars.  

[ravensrule]

6 minutes ago, nj2va said:

2 days ago, this threat didn’t pop up on most people’s radars.  

Do you really have to encourage him?. 

[rjvanals]

7 minutes ago, nj2va said:

2 days ago, this threat didn’t pop up on most people’s radars.  

@psuhoffmanand a few others honed in on this window around Christmas

[Maestrobjwa]

9 minutes ago, Ji said:

If we didnt have this storm....where is the next threat coming from? Nothing really stood out looking at the long range? Maybe the 12th/13th?

Why not just...stay in the present for a moment? No "if we didn't"...we DO have this storm to track. And the 12th/13th is almost 2 weeks away and we wouldn't be able to identify a specific threat right now anyway. Just enjoy now!

[psuhoffman]

14 minutes ago, Fozz said:

Was Feb 10, 2010 a purely NS-driven storm? Or did it phase with any STJ component?

That was one of the oddest cases of any HECS storm for the mid atlantic.  Initially there was a STJ system crossing the 4 corners as a stronger cut off system dove into the Dakotas out of Canada.  They phased over the upper midwest and 99% of the time that would have been game over for us except we had maybe the most ridiculous block ever preventing anything from cutting and forced the closed upper low to continue southeastward.  It did still have a STJ connection, there was a weak wave down in the gulf with a moisture feed up into the system but the dominant feature was always the NS system that dove due south out of Canada then turned southeast and continued southeast right across VA.  

I guess I would categorize it as a hybrid but it was as close to a NS miller b as any in that subset.  That setup would never work again unless we had that kind of block.  

Some images from that system 

 

 

 

 

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

That setup would never work again unless we had that kind of block.  

I'm guessing that's why Feb 2010 was a 1 in 150 year event.

[Buddy1987]

Would like to think Icon was another good shellacking.. skips between hrs 108-126 as of this moment. Looks like track would he ideal for most here. 

[LP08]

ICON looks good, minus the fact it’s missing some important panels lol.

[LP08]

1 minute ago, LP08 said:

ICON looks good, minus the fact it’s missing some important panels lol.

Deforms are fun. 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, LP08 said:

ICON looks good, minus the fact it’s missing some important panels lol.

Dang it ICON...it's always the exact panels you need, lolol

[psuhoffman]

22 minutes ago, Ji said:

If we didnt have this storm....where is the next threat coming from? Nothing really stood out looking at the long range? Maybe the 12th/13th?

It depends how things turn after the cutter on the 10th, which we still possibly could start as some frozen if we get lucky with the details.  But after that there is a huge difference in how the EPS and GEFS progress the pattern with the GEPS somewhere in the middle.  

Neither is stacked immediately after although if the EPS is correct I definitely could see us getting some frozen from a progressive boundary wave in the 12-17th time period, although another cutter is possible if something phases and is too amplified.  If the GEFS is right almost anything, even a progressive wave will cut well west of us in this time period.  

After that again depends on which guidance wins out...the EPS slowly shifts the trough southeast under the block as the pacific resumes a more nino look.  Eventually by the 18th or so we could be chasing a big storm again.  The GEFS on the other hand goes off the rails and the extended goes towards a full nina look and even flips the AO/NAO positive and frankly looks like 2020 and last winter by late January and implies winter is over after this Jan 7 storm. 

I do not think the GEFS is correct.  The EPS matches my expected progression for the season so why would I favor the less accurate guidance that goes against history.  But....I still will feel better when it caves!  Thought it was in the process of caving yesterday then it reverted to full on disaster.  I expect it will cave soon but  I will do a shot in relief when that happens.   

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, LP08 said:

ICON looks good, minus the fact it’s missing some important panels lol.

it always does that lol 

[Ji]

25 minutes ago, nj2va said:

2 days ago, this threat didn’t pop up on most people’s radars.  

not true--i have been looking at the Jan 7th window since Dec 22

[nj2va]

1 minute ago, LP08 said:

Deforms are fun. 

Missing a few panels but doesn’t seem like there’s an OH valley low so I like that.

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

it always does that lol 

It just amazes me that when we're tracking something, no matter what hour...those panels are missing, haha Reverse extrapolation ftw...

[NorthArlington101]

it always does that lol 

It’s coming in slowly on WxBell but it’s a mauling for almost all of us with plenty of wiggle room SE of cities… maybe even best down there.

[clskinsfan]

It's out on weather.us....it's a drubbing. Way better for you eastern guys. 

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

It just amazes me that when we're tracking something, no matter what hour...those panels are missing, haha Reverse extrapolation ftw...

The Germans are Fing with us 

[Scraff]

Love hearing that the JV model is another mauling, but the Varsity team just took the field. Come on GooFuS!! Let’s do this!!

[DarkSharkWX]

if anyone is interested

[Ji]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It depends how things turn after the cutter on the 10th, which we still possibly could start as some frozen if we get lucky with the details.  But after that there is a huge difference in how the EPS and GEFS progress the pattern with the GEPS somewhere in the middle.  

Neither is stacked immediately after although if the EPS is correct I definitely could see us getting some frozen from a progressive boundary wave in the 12-17th time period, although another cutter is possible if something phases and is too amplified.  If the GEFS is right almost anything, even a progressive wave will cut well west of us in this time period.  

After that again depends on which guidance wins out...the EPS slowly shifts the trough southeast under the block as the pacific resumes a more nino look.  Eventually by the 18th or so we could be chasing a big storm again.  The GEFS on the other hand goes off the rails and the extended goes towards a full nina look and even flips the AO/NAO positive and frankly looks like 2020 and last winter by late January and implies winter is over after this Jan 7 storm. 

I do not think the GEFS is correct.  The EPS matches my expected progression for the season so why would I favor the less accurate guidance that goes against history.  But....I still will feel better when it caves!  Thought it was in the process of caving yesterday then it reverted to full on disaster.  I expect it will cave soon but  I will do a shot in relief when that happens.   

this is exactly why i was so nervous a few days when the Jan 7 storm looked like it might be heading towards the toilet. We would be at zero inches by January 15th for the winter with nothing in sight for the most part. We would of been relaying then on a HECS to save winter. Getting this storm is really really really critical

[Ji]

Just now, DarkSharkWX said:

if anyone is interested

im moving east to DC. Just need about a 800,000 dollar loan

[clskinsfan]

Icon is 6-8 SNOWDEPTH. area wide. Including the cities. 

[nj2va]

4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

It’s coming in slowly on WxBell but it’s a mauling for almost all of us with plenty of wiggle room SE of cities… maybe even best down there.

Gutentag.  I like seeing that 6” line down in the Northern Neck, personally.

[Kay]

NE MD PUMMELED lol

[Ji]

Just now, clskinsfan said:

Icon is 6-8 SNOWDEPTH. area wide. Including the cities. 

ya dawg....that aint gonna work for me. I need double digits

[Terpeast]

Icon also speeding up the storm, as has the other models. the speed up trend is for real

[NorthArlington101]

if anyone is interested

an aside before we head into storm mode: you like weathermodels? I occasionally find myself in the “free” version (weather.us) and am always impressed with the array of stuff there. I’m just so used to WxBell

[SnowDreamer]

ICON is good, especially for SE of 95. LP is Miller A-esque (don't hate me).

[snowfan]

Definitely no shortage of precip.