Weather Will Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 WB 18Z EURO, cold start Friday am..... 10 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 When does the eps run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 When does the eps run?7:50ish… starting momentarily Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Shortly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 2 hours ago, mattie g said: Is that estimated after we get horsepissed on three days later? You have the best avatar ever 2 hours ago, Jersey Andrew said: Jan 2016 was first forecast to be DC-Baltimore special with only glancing blow to NYC. I was living up in northeast Jersey at the time and was stunned we got 28 inches. A lot of the time the busts on the northern edge of these type storms isn't due to a change in the track but that guidance often underestimates the banding that often sets up near the northern fringes of these storms where the moisture transport banks up against the wall created by the confluence. That added lift combined with the typically higher ratios there often creates a second snowfall maximum that gets missed in forecasts. Happens in many of those type storms. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 hour ago, Ji said: We don’t need 10. Even 6 would be huge and still be at slightly above normal for season This is a home run set up so gotta swing for the fences.!Did you ask Dav*d T. To come back for this event snd call truce?????? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnis Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 27 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: A few days ago there wasn't a primary low in Kentucky. You guys can say it's trending better but PSU actually posted something good about where the thermal boundary is. I think in future trend, the cold air may get cutoff. It would be different if there was a low pressure in the N. Pacific ocean, and for snowstorms in the Mid Atlantic, that is a major piece. I've seen this pattern set up a lot over the last few Winters, and we are still far ways out (5-6 days), and they almost always trend warmer to verification. Over the PNA/GOA region, especially lately, you need a Low , not a High. It has downstream effects not completely estimated in the model at this range (5-6 days). Hi Stromchaserchuck1..., I appreciate your's, and everybody's analysis as we close in on a potential snow threat. You seem to be interpreting some the data differently then a lot of the other experienced and knowledgeable contributors. Could you please elaborate on the meteorology regarding your last two statements. I'm hoping to expand my meteorological knowledge. Thanks! 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 EPS slightly S, more wetter euro control SE shift 7 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 WB 18Z EPS 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 WB EPS control 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Love the location of the 0° C line on that valid 06z sunday panel! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 4 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z EPS Comparison to prior? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 10 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z EPS I don’t love that 0c line running over my house, but I’m more interested in the trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 7 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Comparison to prior? About the same....slightly less snow mean at 18Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 56 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: yeah my parents still talk about that storm (they were in Ohio) My Uncle and Cousins lived in NW Ohio. They never get over that one. Amazing ! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 3 minutes ago, Weather Will said: About the same....slightly less snow mean at 18Z. In fairness you should compare the valid 12z Sunday maps. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 What I've been trying to track is the 50th percentile on the ens... so the median vs. the mean. If I remember my STAT 101 (I might not) it's a better control for outliers, both positive and negative. that said, here is the 18z. It's better than 12z in the metro, little worse out west, but it's mostly just been oscillating back and forth. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 11 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Comparison to prior? The changes are noise, its virtually the same 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Just now, StormyClearweather said: I'm giving this a "true, but misleading" like Snopes. If you check the next 6 hr interval (so looking at 132 at 18z), it's trended colder run over run. Can cherry pick these little shifts anyway ya really want to at range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 minute ago, StormyClearweather said: Not sure it’s necessarily trending warmer, but rather just moving things faster 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 2 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said: the trend for a faster storm is pretty evident here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: I'm giving this a "true, but misleading" like Snopes. If you check the next 6 hr interval (so looking at 132 at 18z), it's trended colder run over run. Can cherry pick these little shifts anyway ya really want to at range. Thanks, you're right. I wasn't thinking about the speed-up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 2 hours ago, umdterps29 said: Thanks! I’m torn between heading out to Deep Creek for the weekend or hanging home and seeing what happens here. Feels like Deep Creek is the more sensible bet if i don’t want to risk disappointment If it trends north/west I will head out to either Snowshoe, Timberline, or maybe Seven Springs in PA. Wish Blue Knob had lodging anywhere near the mountain, its a decent little spot but impossible to get to in a storm. That was my go to when I was at PSU. 2 hours ago, Ji said: This could be a season saving storm. Without out we are looking at 2 cutters and no snow by January 15z. This storm is critical. We could be at above average snow on Monday for the season It’s like your fantasy rb scoring a td in the first quarter if it happens Don't sleep on late Jan into Feb regardless of what happens this weekend. I still think our best stretch is after Jan 20th. Jan 20th seems to be a sweet spot in similar years that showed up. 1966, 1987, 2016 all produced big snow around or just after Jan 20th and just about nothing before. 2 hours ago, CAPE said: Storms would track NW with the trough in that position though. This is where it would really get good for the MA as advertised. More mature NA block with lower heights shifting into the 50-50 position, and the Aleutian low is in a better spot with a ridge building towards the western US. If this is real the latter part of Jan is gonna be interesting. I am really starting to like the January 20th on period. The GEFS needs to get a clue but the EPS and GEPS are setting us up nice for the end of January. Fits nino climo also...I know everyone is focused on Feb, and thats possible 1958 and 2010 are in the analogs, but 66, 87, 2016 all had the best stretch the end of January so I'm not ruling that out. IMO the reason Feb looks so much better in the means than Jan on a nino composite is because often the first 1/3 of January is a shit show and skews the pattern look worse than if you just look at Jan 15 on. To be the money period is Jan 20 through Feb. March is a wildcard, 58, 78 were awesome, 2003 but most others faded by then. 2 hours ago, nj2va said: IMO snow depth maps are talked about too much. Just one tool to use but too much emphasis placed on those. I am reducing my seasonal total from 4" to 1" because of the depth maps 1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: A few days ago there wasn't a primary low in Kentucky. You guys can say it's trending better but PSU actually posted something good about where the thermal boundary is. I think in future trend, the cold air may get cutoff. It would be different if there was a low pressure in the N. Pacific ocean, and for snowstorms in the Mid Atlantic, that is a major piece. I've seen this pattern set up a lot over the last few Winters, and we are still far ways out (5-6 days), and they almost always trend warmer to verification. Over the PNA/GOA region, especially lately, you need a Low , not a High. It has downstream effects not completely estimated in the model at this range (5-6 days) from what I've seen. I am not dismissing your concerns. if we do fail this would be the most likely way, BUT the compressed flow between the western trough and the 50/50 make this more favorable than normal. Sometimes regional geographical features can offset the hemispheric ones. Without that compression between those features you're right this would not be much of a threat. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Seven Springs webcam https://www.7springs.com/the-mountain/mountain-conditions/mountain-cams.aspx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I am really starting to like the January 20th on period. I just saw Webb mentioning that it appears that another high was targeting central Asia which would in turn lead to another EAMT+ event which would then lead to another jet extension. Have you seen anything about that? That turned my blood cold. The continental thermals are just starting to try and heal from the mauling of that last pac puke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 4 minutes ago, cbmclean said: I just saw Webb mentioning that it appears that another high was targeting central Asia which would in turn lead to another EAMT+ event which would then lead to another jet extension. Have you seen anything about that? That turned my blood cold. The continental thermals are just starting to try and heal from the mauling of that last pac puke. We want a jet extension just not as strong as the last one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 4 minutes ago, cbmclean said: I just saw Webb mentioning that it appears that another high was targeting central Asia which would in turn lead to another EAMT+ event which would then lead to another jet extension. Have you seen anything about that? That turned my blood cold. The continental thermals are just starting to try and heal from the mauling of that last pac puke. At least we have some colder air on this side of the hemisphere now. We should be able to withstand a short pac puke episode. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 23 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said: 21 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Not sure it’s necessarily trending warmer, but rather just moving things faster It’s sped up about 6 hours in the last 4 runs. this isn’t perfect but these frames are a better comparison when the storm is at a more similar spot in its pass which matters more. The change is noise imo. 18z looks slightly colder but with the 6 hour adjustment now it’s maybe an hour behind 0z so it’s a wash imo. The eps has been holding with only noise changes run to run today. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It’s sped up about 6 hours in the last 4 runs. this isn’t perfect but these frames are a better comparison when the storm is at a more similar spot in its pass which matters more. The change is noise imo. 18z looks slightly colder but with the 6 hour adjustment now it’s maybe an hour behind 0z so it’s a wash imo. The eps has been holding with only noise changes run to run today. I-81 and west takes this in a heartbeat. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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