Fozz Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, Ji said: This could be a season saving storm. Without out we are looking at 2 cutters and no snow by January 15z. This storm is critical. We could be at above average snow on Monday for the season It’s like your fantasy rb scoring a td in the first quarter if it happens As I recall it's rare to get a big one (10"+) before the 2nd half of January. Another reason to be cautious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 WOOF. El Niño for the win. Hate that this storm is still 5+ days out though. All the Nino storms this season have been modeled well…..just relax Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 A friendly reminder, we have a banter thread 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 As I recall it's rare to get a big one (10"+) before the 2nd half of January. Another reason to be cautious.We don’t need 10. Even 6 would be huge and still be at slightly above normal for season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 5 minutes ago, Terpeast said: I'm 80-90% confident that there will be a steep gradient in snowfall within a 20 mile range, or even less. I just hope most of us will be on the left side of it. Based on history...this sure smells like one of those 1-3" to rain in cities more n & w to me (not trying to be a Deb though). I mean, we are at the beginning of a favorable pattern change...I wonder it it's a tad early for I-95. But hey, maybe I'm just rambling, lol 1 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 3 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: i would be remiss to not mention this. this is a legit KU level block. 3 sigma at 12 days out is insane Storms would track NW with the trough in that position though. This is where it would really get good for the MA as advertised. More mature NA block with lower heights shifting into the 50-50 position, and the Aleutian low is in a better spot with a ridge building towards the western US. If this is real the latter part of Jan is gonna be interesting. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 1 Author Share Posted January 1 I’m on the beach and this board is taking 1000 hours to load. Somebody give me a quick summary. Whoever is first gets a ban immunity for 30 days. 1 1 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 All the Nino storms this season have been modeled well…..just relaxI’m relaxed Ji… haha. I’ve probably been one of the most optimistic folks in here regarding this threat. Just wish we were closer than 5 days is all. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: I’m on the beach and this board is taking 1000 hours to load. Somebody give me a quick summary. Whoever is first gets a ban immunity for 30 days. models are cooking for the 7th, GEFS/EPS/GFS/EURO bombs, esp NW of 95 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, stormtracker said: I’m on the beach and this board is taking 1000 hours to load. Somebody give me a quick summary. Whoever is first gets a ban immunity for 30 days. If you’re in Mexico then, you’re screwed. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: I’m on the beach and this board is taking 1000 hours to load. Somebody give me a quick summary. Whoever is first gets a ban immunity for 30 days. Come home by Friday. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I’m on the beach and this board is taking 1000 hours to load. Somebody give me a quick summary. Whoever is first gets a ban immunity for 30 days. The surface is pretty warm. I doubt I-95 sees accumulating snowfall, but models are holding on 1 1 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 1 Author Share Posted January 1 2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: The surface is pretty warm. I doubt I-95 sees accumulating snowfall, but models are holding on Except you 3 22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 1 Author Share Posted January 1 3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Come home by Friday. I home tomm homie 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 The surface is pretty warm. I doubt I-95 sees accumulating snowfall, but models are holding onThe new Ji…Rates overcome marginal surface temps as mid levels stay cold enough. Has happened many times before. I-95 gets a mauling of precip, which mitigates that issue. As depicted, that’s heavy snow at 33 degrees, not rain. It’s not a lock, but if the storm evolves as the GFS depicts, DC to Baltimore would see warning level snowfall with more snow to the WNW. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 6 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: The surface is pretty warm. I doubt I-95 sees accumulating snowfall, but models are holding on Sunshine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 hour ago, Paleocene said: Yeah, the temp maps verbatim have most of the region (east of the blue ridge) above freezing during the bulk of the heavy snowfall. It’s already trended colder than 72 hours ago. Plus at this range guidance is often too warm in the boundary layer in the cold sector under heavy precip. It could trend colder. But we’re not really supposed to talk about temps. 9 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 When does the GFS bring in precip? Did it continue the trend of earlier onset or is still looking like a Sunday affair? Gotta think late Saturday night would be ideal vs later into Sunday morning - afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 16 minutes ago, jayyy said: Rates overcome marginal surface temps as mid levels stay cold enough. Has happened many times before. I-95 gets a mauling of precip, which mitigates that issue. As depicted, that’s heavy snow at 33 degrees, not rain. It’s not a lock, but if the storm evolves as the GFS depicts, DC to Baltimore would see warning level snowfall with more snow to the WNW. You guys should know what to look at in trend. There is a reason the NWS identifies index regions as special in their analysis, because these often don't fluctuate as much, and dictate future model trends. You would think the model would be updated by now but it's not 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said: You guys should know what to look at in trend. There is a reason the NWS identifies index regions as special in their analysis, because these often don't fluctuate as much, and dictate model trends. We've been looking at how this is trending, too. It has trended colder with a stronger high up north. I've been harping on this for 2 days now. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 You guys should know what to look at in trend. There is a reason the NWS identifies index regions as special in their analysis, because these often don't fluctuate as much, and dictate model trends. The trend has undeniably been colder - better confluence, a stronger / better positioned high, and an earlier transfer to the coast. Trends have NOT been warmer the past 72 hours. Quite the opposite in fact. . 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, Terpeast said: We've been looking at how this is trending, too. It has trended colder with a stronger high up north. I've been harping on this for 2 days now. Let's see how it trends in the coming days, as it stands now the GFS is very close to a total miss for I-95. 1 1 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Let's see how it trends in the coming days, as it stands now the GFS is very close to a total miss for I-95. I respect the snow depth map as a “worst case” scenario. With 33 and ripping… it’s not gonna have any trouble stacking up. We did fine with much much less on Dec. 10 earlier in the year. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 This could be a season saving storm. Without out we are looking at 2 cutters and no snow by January 15z.This storm is critical. We could be at above average snow on Monday for the season It’s like your fantasy rb scoring a td in the first quarter if it happensLast night in our league, guy was 1% to win down 33 or whatever in the championship. He had Jordan Love left only. He won. If he can do it then we can get a snowstorm. 95 gonna have BL issues, we always do. I doubt we see a GFS all snow event unless we get support from other models fast. Just praying cmc/Ukie solutions are wrong. Cya at 00z . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Let's see how it trends in the coming days, as it stands now the GFS is very close to a total miss for I-95. Not north of Fredericksburg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: I respect the snow depth map as a “worst case” scenario. With 33 and ripping… it’s not gonna have any trouble stacking up. We did fine with much much less on Dec. 10 earlier in the year. IMO snow depth maps are talked about too much. Just one tool to use but too much emphasis placed on those. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 8 minutes ago, jayyy said: When does the GFS bring in precip? Did it continue the trend of earlier onset or is still looking like a Sunday affair? Gotta think late Saturday night would be ideal vs later into Sunday morning - afternoon GFS is slower than Euro. Gets precip into the southern parts of our area around 4p and into DC a bit before 7p. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 24 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: We won’t get 2 cutters. Wait and see What was this storm last week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 1 Author Share Posted January 1 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: I respect the snow depth map as a “worst case” scenario. With 33 and ripping… it’s not gonna have any trouble stacking up. We did fine with much much less on Dec. 10 earlier in the year. I’m 9 tequilas in. I’m buzzed af. Shut up Chuck. Shut all the way up. Shut up to fucking Mars. Shut up to fucking Proximal Centurai B 1 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 1 Author Share Posted January 1 4 minutes ago, Scraff said: Please pick up a Shrimp Po Boy in the Houston airport for me on the way back. I hear they’re delish, and occasionally have been know to have winter storms named after them. Layover is an O’Hare. God save me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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