Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming

[WinterWxLuvr]

6 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

The surface is pretty warm. I doubt I-95 sees accumulating snowfall, but models are holding on

Sunshine

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Paleocene said:

Yeah, the temp maps verbatim have most of the region (east of the blue ridge) above freezing during the bulk of the heavy snowfall.

It’s already trended colder than 72 hours ago. Plus at this range guidance is often too warm in the boundary layer in the cold sector under heavy precip.  It could trend colder. But we’re not really supposed to talk about temps. 

[jayyy]

When does the GFS bring in precip? Did it continue the trend of earlier onset or is still looking like a Sunday affair? Gotta think late Saturday night would be ideal vs later into Sunday morning - afternoon

[Stormchaserchuck1]

16 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Rates overcome marginal surface temps as mid levels stay cold enough. Has happened many times before. I-95 gets a mauling of precip, which mitigates that issue. As depicted, that’s heavy snow at 33 degrees, not rain.

It’s not a lock, but if the storm evolves as the GFS depicts, DC to Baltimore would see warning level snowfall with more snow to the WNW.

You guys should know what to look at in trend. There is a reason the NWS identifies index regions as special in their analysis, because these often don't fluctuate as much, and dictate future model trends. You would think the model would be updated by now but it's not

[Terpeast]

Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

You guys should know what to look at in trend. There is a reason the NWS identifies index regions as special in their analysis, because these often don't fluctuate as much, and dictate model trends. 

We've been looking at how this is trending, too. It has trended colder with a stronger high up north. I've been harping on this for 2 days now.

[jayyy]

You guys should know what to look at in trend. There is a reason the NWS identifies index regions as special in their analysis, because these often don't fluctuate as much, and dictate model trends. 

The trend has undeniably been colder - better confluence, a stronger / better positioned high, and an earlier transfer to the coast. Trends have NOT been warmer the past 72 hours. Quite the opposite in fact.


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[Stormchaserchuck1]

Just now, Terpeast said:

We've been looking at how this is trending, too. It has trended colder with a stronger high up north. I've been harping on this for 2 days now.

Let's see how it trends in the coming days, as it stands now the GFS is very close to a total miss for I-95. 

[NorthArlington101]

Let's see how it trends in the coming days, as it stands now the GFS is very close to a total miss for I-95. 

I respect the snow depth map as a “worst case” scenario. With 33 and ripping… it’s not gonna have any trouble stacking up. We did fine with much much less on Dec. 10 earlier in the year.

[Heisy]

This could be a season saving storm. Without out we are looking at 2 cutters and no snow by January 15z.

This storm is critical. We could be at above average snow on Monday for the season

It’s like your fantasy rb scoring a td in the first quarter if it happens

Last night in our league, guy was 1% to win down 33 or whatever in the championship. He had Jordan Love left only. He won. If he can do it then we can get a snowstorm.

95 gonna have BL issues, we always do. I doubt we see a GFS all snow event unless we get support from other models fast. Just praying cmc/Ukie solutions are wrong. Cya at 00z


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[WinterWxLuvr]

2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Let's see how it trends in the coming days, as it stands now the GFS is very close to a total miss for I-95. 

Not north of Fredericksburg 

[nj2va]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

I respect the snow depth map as a “worst case” scenario. With 33 and ripping… it’s not gonna have any trouble stacking up. We did fine with much much less on Dec. 10 earlier in the year.

IMO snow depth maps are talked about too much.  Just one tool to use but too much emphasis placed on those.

[nj2va]

8 minutes ago, jayyy said:

When does the GFS bring in precip? Did it continue the trend of earlier onset or is still looking like a Sunday affair? Gotta think late Saturday night would be ideal vs later into Sunday morning - afternoon

GFS is slower than Euro.  Gets precip into the southern parts of our area around 4p and into DC a bit before 7p.  

[aldie 22]

24 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

We won’t get 2 cutters. Wait and see

What was this storm last week?

[stormtracker]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

I respect the snow depth map as a “worst case” scenario. With 33 and ripping… it’s not gonna have any trouble stacking up. We did fine with much much less on Dec. 10 earlier in the year.

I’m 9 tequilas in. I’m buzzed af. Shut up Chuck.  Shut all the way up. Shut up to  fucking Mars. Shut up to fucking Proximal Centurai B

[stormtracker]

4 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Please pick up a Shrimp Po Boy in the Houston airport for me on the way back. I hear they’re delish, and occasionally have been know to have winter storms named after them. 

Layover is an O’Hare. God save me

 

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z GEFS probs and mean.

[Rhino16]

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GEFS probs and mean.

What about the 1” odds, if they exist? The 3” is too low for down here in Richmond…

[clskinsfan]

30-40% probability of a foot? Sign me up baby. 

[Weather Will]

Just now, Rhino16 said:

What about the 1” odds, if they exist? The 3” is too low for down here in Richmond…

 

[Rhino16]

6 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

 

Thank you! I’ll take some mood flakes I guess before it gets washed away. Even if it stings.

[Kevin Reilly]

32 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

We've been looking at how this is trending, too. It has trended colder with a stronger high up north. I've been harping on this for 2 days now.

This idea is something new that has been missing going on 3 years now.  Welcome Back!!

[pazzo83]

1 hour ago, clskinsfan said:

That follow up Midwest Blizzard is something else. 972?

Blizzard of 78 vibes

[Terpeast]

4 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

This idea is something new that has been missing going on 3 years now.  Welcome Back!!

Still 5 days out. Let’s hope this holds serve at least. 

[MillvilleWx]

NBM continues to be impressive at leads with the mean QPF and snowfall forecast. Odds are increasing of 1-1.5” QPF during the time frame of the storm, so you can deduce some average ratios of 7-8:1 to as high as 12-14:1 during the storm height within any banding. A pretty good indication of 6-10+” is on the table if all things break correctly. 
 

In-situ cold will be great leading in with drier dew points. That should aid in wet bulbing on the initial surge of low-mid level moisture that’s accustomed to these events. Good trends overall. 

[RDM]

3 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

Blizzard of 78 vibes

If you are referring to the blizzard of 78 that hit the midwest, respectfully disagree.  Lived through the blizzard of 78 as a teenager and this is not even close.  The LP in 78 was one of the top 5 ever recorded - with sustained winds of 50+ for over 24 hours and gusts to 70+.  This isn't on the same planet.  

[RDM]

Just now, RDM said:

If you are referring to the blizzard of 78 that hit the midwest, respectfully disagree.  Lived through the blizzard of 78 as a teenager and this is not even close.  The LP in 78 was one of the top 5 ever recorded - with sustained winds of 50+ for over 24 hours and gusts to 70+.  This isn't on the same planet.  

Should have added the caveat the LP was one of the top 5 recorded in N America - extratropical.  

[Kevin Reilly]

5 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

NBM continues to be impressive at leads with the mean QPF and snowfall forecast. Odds are increasing of 1-1.5” QPF during the time frame of the storm, so you can deduce some average ratios of 7-8:1 to as high as 12-14:1 during the storm height within any banding. A pretty good indication of 6-10+” is on the table if all things break correctly. 
 

In-situ cold will be great leading in with drier dew points. That should aid in wet bulbing on the initial surge of low-mid level moisture that’s accustomed to these events. Good trends overall. 

Without a doubt look at the water vapor map.... check out Mexico the Southern Jet is ready!!

 

Pennsylvania Water Vapor Satellite Weather Map | AccuWeather

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

We'll run circles defining the hybrids. We've done it many times lol.

 

Any storm that jumps is called a Miller b because it looks like one but me and you dont see it that way. Barolclinic transfers from a low approaching from the deep south is not a Miller b in my book. They usually have big juicy WAA in front. A defining difference from a NS Miller B that never gets going until it's gaining latitude. Just my take and separates the 2 in my brain with how I view the possibilities.

We had this discussion many times over the years.  I hate when it becomes an argument over definitions.  I could care less what we call them.  The problem is for the "purists" that define any transfer as a miller b, we then HAVE to differentiate between northern stream dominant SW's that transfer and STJ dominant transfer storms.  The best definition system I've seen classifies the later as "hybrid" systems.  And by that definition system our best storms are almost all hybrids.   

Pure miller a storms usually are trucking and moving too fast to dump prolific totals.  The transfer process actually slows down the system some, plus often when a primary west of the apps transfers its because its blocked to some extent.  We also run the risk of being too far west for a pure miller a.  They sometimes end of coastal scrapers for our area and nail NYC, especially in a Nina!  A primary into the TN valley pretty much guarantees we don't miss out on the party, so long as it transfers in time for us to stay cold enough.  Additionally getting the wave to amplify to our SW opens the door to prolific WAA snows before the storm even gets going.  Our really big storms are when we get a foot of snow from overrunning before the coastal even gets going.  

Miller a/b hybrids are actually our best storms.  But the people that classify everything as A/B scare the crap out of some when they classify them as miller b and they suddenly think of every NS jump storm that screwed us over and hit New England.  

I know you know this, we've had this conversation before...but thought it was time to bring it up again for all the new members since the last time we got to actually go over this...since its been so freaking long since we actually got to discuss a legit snow threat in this kind of detail.  

[wtkidz]

1 hour ago, Deck Pic said:

I hope the hell not.  You should be fine unless this thing passes over Fredericksburg

Need to keep east and south. 

[pazzo83]

6 minutes ago, RDM said:

If you are referring to the blizzard of 78 that hit the midwest, respectfully disagree.  Lived through the blizzard of 78 as a teenager and this is not even close.  The LP in 78 was one of the top 5 ever recorded - with sustained winds of 50+ for over 24 hours and gusts to 70+.  This isn't on the same planet.  

a 970mb massive low tracking in the same location would be in the same ballpark (I think the lowest pressures in '78 were in the mid 950s).  Could trend stronger, but it's obviously a ways out.