brooklynwx99 Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: The gefs really backed off the -nao this run. If you actually want to worry about something that would truly be a reason to worry that would be it. This equation won’t work without a -nao. The whole problem creation relies on it. +nao basic wide or east based ninos are a disaster! luckily it’s just one run and the GEPS doesn’t agree so for now just a blip. 12z eps will be telling. seems like the GEFS just burped. EPS cranks the -NAO 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 turns into a significant WB -NAO 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 2 hours ago, Ji said: sorry PSU--this is not a long range model win. No model had this. This looks like December lol Agreed Its bad when they are wrong. It’s Worse to say they weren’t 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: The gefs really backed off the -nao this run. If you actually want to worry about something that would truly be a reason to worry that would be it. This equation won’t work without a -nao. The whole problem creation relies on it. +nao basic wide or east based ninos are a disaster! luckily it’s just one run and the GEPS doesn’t agree so for now just a blip. 12z eps will be telling. So, what we would be looking at is a continuation of what we have a cold shot or two otherwise a warm phase Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 1 hour ago, Ji said: Euro at 216 Gfs at 216 As time moves on I wonder more snd more why there is so much worship of examples if weather that are 20-30 degrees differing and 400 miles east or west on the low every 6-12 hours. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 1 hour ago, Ji said: Euro at 216 Gfs at 216 Finally, finally!! Some Agreement! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx12 Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 As a warminsta, I'll take the GFS's claim that there's no real threat until MLK weekend. Sorry (not) for the delay... 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 1 hour ago, Ji said: Euro at 216 Gfs at 216 Ops aren’t great at predicting temp at hr 216? Wow! Great insight eta: ops are pretty useless after Day 5, but we know this 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 Ops aren’t great at predicting temp at hr 216? Wow! Great insight eta: ops are pretty useless after Day 5, but we know thisNot for temps 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 2 minutes ago, anotherman said: At least Anna has a healthy dose of skepticism... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 CFS and 700 hours out 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 This…https://x.com/bamwxcom/status/1740448486204870970?s=46&t=j_-aw-4tjFwrt5AoXKNk5A 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: What did he say? He said that because of the MJO being favored in the warm phases due to 30+ ssts in the MC, the models would correct warmer as lead times shorten. [Bluewave, if you're reading this: Nice job, you take this round.] At least he said that El Nino winters are best judged for the period after Jan 15 through the end of Feb, and anything that happens before that isn't relevant due to nino climatology. So there's that. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 10 minutes ago, anotherman said: Jesus its a month away 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 Bombogenesis off OBX or bustSo, according to Ji, we’ve never had a decent to good winter without it snowing prior to January 5th? Interesting. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 Not for tempsEven more so for temps Ji. The OP GFS significantly busted high on my temps leading up to Christmas Called for mid 50s and my area was in the 42-45 range most days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 2 minutes ago, jayyy said: Even more so for temps Ji. The OP GFS significantly busted high on my temps leading up to Christmas Called for mid 50s and my area was in the 42-45 range most days. It certainly busted low on temps for the Potomac Highlands this past entire week from a lead time of 3-4 days - it had snowshowers here starting 12.26 that in actuality will maybe occur on the 29th or 30th. I actually agree you are correct though, I do think areas in the eastern portion of the subforum did see perhaps legitamately colder temperatures at times during December than you might have reasonably anticipated, blunting recognition of just how disasterous the pattern evolution actually was the final 10 days of the month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 Jesus its a month away So were the weeklies from early to mid November you keep referencing when stating the pattern change never came on the 28th.Plain and simple: Ensembles should be used to track large scale synoptic changes at h5 in the medium+ range, and then we shift to OPs in the short and mid range to nail down specifics on storm chances. Op runs at 300+ hours = Useless. For thermal profiles, track, etc. We’ll get to where we need to be eventually. Just hope it’s not TOO late into January. We could go on absolute heater from MLK to Valentine’s Day and beyond, but I’d prefer not to have to bank on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 1 hour ago, Ji said: Euro has no Jan 7 storm Shocker 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 39 minutes ago, anotherman said: Called it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 39 minutes ago, anotherman said: At least it's weighted toward the Mid Atlantic. I would die if I had to go thru Feb 2021 again. Or worse, g-d forbid. Send the vortex straight to the DC Metropolitan Region! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 57 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said: Was curious if they released a discussion, went looking and found this: Quote The 0Z GEFS, ECMWF, and Canadian ensemble means depict a 500-hPa shortwave trough ejecting from the Southwest later next week and resulting in surface low development across the Lower Mississippi Valley or Southeast by January 6. This evolving pattern along with 24-hour forecast amounts from the ensemble means support a moderate risk of heavy precipitation for parts of the lower Mississippi Valley, Gulf Coast and Southeast on January 5 and 6. Since many GEFS and ECMWF ensemble members have a strengthening low pressure system tracking northward near the East Coast, a slight risk of heavy snow (January 6 and 7) is posted for the Southern to Central Appalachians and parts of the Northeast. Precipitation type is more uncertain across the lower elevations of the Mid-Atlantic. A second low pressure system is expected to affect the Gulf Coast and East by the end of week-2 as an amplified trough approaches from the western and central CONUS. The GEFS and ECMWF Probabilistic Extremes Tools (PETs) support a broad slight risk for heavy precipitation and it is valid through the entirety of week-2. The spatial coverage of this precipitation hazard is consistent with the background El Niño. 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 At least it's weighted toward the Mid Atlantic. I would die if I had to go thru Feb 2021 again. Or worse, g-d forbid. Send the vortex straight to the DC Metropolitan Region!MLK to V-Day epic heater coming! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 4 minutes ago, jayyy said: MLK to V-Day epic heater coming! Wow you guys would have high temps around 2 degrees above zero. That's one hell of a cold jebwalk. With northerly frigid advection on top of that! Have fun! I will be basking in+40 temps, cold for us but at least I won't be carrying water like a damn Sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 Called itApparently mark is not a met and failed out of psu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 Just checked EPS and GEFS, they still show a storm signal for Jan 5, as does the op euro. GEPS is more suppressed. The op GFS and op CMC don't show it. Jan 7-8 storm still there, too, on the ensembles. 15 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 49 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Just checked EPS and GEFS, they still show a storm signal for Jan 5, as does the op euro. GEPS is more suppressed. The op GFS and op CMC don't show it. Jan 7-8 storm still there, too, on the ensembles. the EPS snow chart for Leesburg is fairly well lit from being that far out. We will see 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 4 days difference on the gfs. Forgive me if I don’t get excited or down over what the gfs says will happen ten days from now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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