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Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming


stormtracker
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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

The gefs really backed off the -nao this run. If you actually want to worry about something that would truly be a reason to worry that would be it. This equation won’t work without a -nao. The whole problem creation relies on it. +nao basic wide or east based ninos are a disaster!  
 

luckily it’s just one run and the GEPS doesn’t agree so for now just a blip. 12z eps will be telling.  

seems like the GEFS just burped. EPS cranks the -NAO

IMG_3937.thumb.png.03afe3d24dce25eab7d2bf255d22cfeb.png

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

The gefs really backed off the -nao this run. If you actually want to worry about something that would truly be a reason to worry that would be it. This equation won’t work without a -nao. The whole problem creation relies on it. +nao basic wide or east based ninos are a disaster!  
 

luckily it’s just one run and the GEPS doesn’t agree so for now just a blip. 12z eps will be telling.  

So, what we would be looking at is a continuation of what we have a cold shot or two otherwise a warm phase Nino.

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

What did he say?

He said that because of the MJO being favored in the warm phases due to 30+ ssts in the MC, the models would correct warmer as lead times shorten. 

[Bluewave, if you're reading this: Nice job, you take this round.]

At least he said that El Nino winters are best judged for the period after Jan 15 through the end of Feb, and anything that happens before that isn't relevant due to nino climatology. So there's that.

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2 minutes ago, jayyy said:


Even more so for temps Ji. The OP GFS significantly busted high on my temps leading up to Christmas Called for mid 50s and my area was in the 42-45 range most days.

It certainly busted low on temps for the Potomac Highlands this past entire week from a lead time of 3-4 days - it had snowshowers here starting 12.26 that in actuality will maybe occur on the 29th or 30th.

I actually agree you are correct though, I do think areas in the eastern portion of the subforum did see perhaps legitamately colder temperatures at times during December than you might have reasonably anticipated, blunting recognition of just how disasterous the pattern evolution actually was the final 10 days of the month.

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Jesus
its a month away 

So were the weeklies from early to mid November you keep referencing when stating the pattern change never came on the 28th.

Plain and simple: Ensembles should be used to track large scale synoptic changes at h5 in the medium+ range, and then we shift to OPs in the short and mid range to nail down specifics on storm chances.

Op runs at 300+ hours = Useless. For thermal profiles, track, etc.

We’ll get to where we need to be eventually. Just hope it’s not TOO late into January. We could go on absolute heater from MLK to Valentine’s Day and beyond, but I’d prefer not to have to bank on that.
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57 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said:

C_GycgoX.png

Was curious if they released a discussion, went looking and found this:
 

Quote

The 0Z GEFS, ECMWF, and Canadian ensemble means depict a 500-hPa shortwave trough ejecting from the Southwest later next week and resulting in surface low development across the Lower Mississippi Valley or Southeast by January 6. This evolving pattern along with 24-hour forecast amounts from the ensemble means support a moderate risk of heavy precipitation for parts of the lower Mississippi Valley, Gulf Coast and Southeast on January 5 and 6. Since many GEFS and ECMWF ensemble members have a strengthening low pressure system tracking northward near the East Coast, a slight risk of heavy snow (January 6 and 7) is posted for the Southern to Central Appalachians and parts of the Northeast. Precipitation type is more uncertain across the lower elevations of the Mid-Atlantic. A second low pressure system is expected to affect the Gulf Coast and East by the end of week-2 as an amplified trough approaches from the western and central CONUS. The GEFS and ECMWF Probabilistic Extremes Tools (PETs) support a broad slight risk for heavy precipitation and it is valid through the entirety of week-2. The spatial coverage of this precipitation hazard is consistent with the background El Niño.

 

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4 minutes ago, jayyy said:


MLK to V-Day epic heater coming!

Wow you guys would have high temps around 2 degrees above zero. That's one hell of a cold jebwalk. With northerly frigid advection on top of that! Have fun! I will be basking in+40 temps, cold for us but at least I won't be carrying water like a damn Sooner.

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49 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Just checked EPS and GEFS, they still show a storm signal for Jan 5, as does the op euro. GEPS is more suppressed. The op GFS and op CMC don't show it.

Jan 7-8 storm still there, too, on the ensembles. 

the EPS snow chart for Leesburg is fairly well lit from being that far out. We will see

 

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