Heisy Posted January 1, 2024 Share Posted January 1, 2024 GEFS is pretty torchy at the surface. Tho I'm sure some members have us at sunny and 50It’s cause there’s prob a decent amount that are too far NW. majority still solid though. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 1, 2024 Share Posted January 1, 2024 1 minute ago, Deck Pic said: Warn your patreoner's about temps of 31-32 and maybe mixing even in Loudoun. I would expect to mix out here even. Not the coldest airmass in reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 1, 2024 Share Posted January 1, 2024 12 minutes ago, umdterps29 said: Can anyone post Kuchera from GFS? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 1, 2024 Share Posted January 1, 2024 1 minute ago, Deck Pic said: I hope the hell not. You should be fine unless this thing passes over Fredericksburg I see two competing influences where this storm wants to come north, but at the same time the cold high gets even stronger while bearing down on us. Will be interesting to see how these trend until we're 60-72 hours from game time. By then, the models should be pretty locked in, give or take 15-20 miles 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 1, 2024 Share Posted January 1, 2024 3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: I would expect to mix out here even. Not the coldest airmass in reality. There is no indication you mix right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umdterps29 Posted January 1, 2024 Share Posted January 1, 2024 7 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Thanks! I’m torn between heading out to Deep Creek for the weekend or hanging home and seeing what happens here. Feels like Deep Creek is the more sensible bet if i don’t want to risk disappointment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 1, 2024 Share Posted January 1, 2024 6 minutes ago, Terpeast said: I see two competing influences where this storm wants to come north, but at the same time the cold high gets even stronger while bearing down on us. Will be interesting to see how these trend until we're 60-72 hours from game time. By then, the models should be pretty locked in, give or take 15-20 miles I know you know this, but the 20 mile wide gradient between 2" and 10" makes these storms rough even at close range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 1, 2024 Share Posted January 1, 2024 Any gefs maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 1, 2024 Share Posted January 1, 2024 2 minutes ago, SnowDreamer said: I know you know this, but the 20 mile wide gradient between 2" and 10" makes these storms rough even at close range. I'm 80-90% confident that there will be a steep gradient in snowfall within a 20 mile range, or even less. I just hope most of us will be on the left side of it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 1, 2024 Share Posted January 1, 2024 50 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Cold high location exactly the same the last 3 runs, remarkable consistency The Big Storms Lock in Early! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 1, 2024 Share Posted January 1, 2024 Taken verbatim, the GFS would give most of us a very scenic plastering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 1, 2024 Share Posted January 1, 2024 1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Any gefs maps? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 1, 2024 Share Posted January 1, 2024 WOOF. El Niño for the win. Hate that this storm is still 5+ days out though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1, 2024 Share Posted January 1, 2024 This could be a season saving storm. Without out we are looking at 2 cutters and no snow by January 15z.This storm is critical. We could be at above average snow on Monday for the season It’s like your fantasy rb scoring a td in the first quarter if it happens 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 1, 2024 Share Posted January 1, 2024 1 minute ago, Ji said: This could be a season saving storm. Without out we are looking at 2 cutters and no snow by January 15z. This storm is critical. We could be at above average snow on Monday for the season It’s like your fantasy rb scoring a td in the first quarter if it happens We won’t get 2 cutters. Wait and see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 1, 2024 Share Posted January 1, 2024 Just now, Ji said: This could be a season saving storm. Without out we are looking at 2 cutters and no snow by January 15z. This storm is critical. We could be at above average snow on Monday for the season It’s like your fantasy rb scoring a td in the first quarter if it happens As I recall it's rare to get a big one (10"+) before the 2nd half of January. Another reason to be cautious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1, 2024 Share Posted January 1, 2024 WOOF. El Niño for the win. Hate that this storm is still 5+ days out though. All the Nino storms this season have been modeled well…..just relax Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 1, 2024 Share Posted January 1, 2024 A friendly reminder, we have a banter thread 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1, 2024 Share Posted January 1, 2024 As I recall it's rare to get a big one (10"+) before the 2nd half of January. Another reason to be cautious.We don’t need 10. Even 6 would be huge and still be at slightly above normal for season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 1, 2024 Share Posted January 1, 2024 5 minutes ago, Terpeast said: I'm 80-90% confident that there will be a steep gradient in snowfall within a 20 mile range, or even less. I just hope most of us will be on the left side of it. Based on history...this sure smells like one of those 1-3" to rain in cities more n & w to me (not trying to be a Deb though). I mean, we are at the beginning of a favorable pattern change...I wonder it it's a tad early for I-95. But hey, maybe I'm just rambling, lol 1 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 1, 2024 Share Posted January 1, 2024 3 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: i would be remiss to not mention this. this is a legit KU level block. 3 sigma at 12 days out is insane Storms would track NW with the trough in that position though. This is where it would really get good for the MA as advertised. More mature NA block with lower heights shifting into the 50-50 position, and the Aleutian low is in a better spot with a ridge building towards the western US. If this is real the latter part of Jan is gonna be interesting. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 1, 2024 Author Share Posted January 1, 2024 I’m on the beach and this board is taking 1000 hours to load. Somebody give me a quick summary. Whoever is first gets a ban immunity for 30 days. 1 1 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 1, 2024 Share Posted January 1, 2024 All the Nino storms this season have been modeled well…..just relaxI’m relaxed Ji… haha. I’ve probably been one of the most optimistic folks in here regarding this threat. Just wish we were closer than 5 days is all. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 1, 2024 Share Posted January 1, 2024 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: I’m on the beach and this board is taking 1000 hours to load. Somebody give me a quick summary. Whoever is first gets a ban immunity for 30 days. models are cooking for the 7th, GEFS/EPS/GFS/EURO bombs, esp NW of 95 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 1, 2024 Share Posted January 1, 2024 Just now, stormtracker said: I’m on the beach and this board is taking 1000 hours to load. Somebody give me a quick summary. Whoever is first gets a ban immunity for 30 days. If you’re in Mexico then, you’re screwed. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 1, 2024 Share Posted January 1, 2024 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: I’m on the beach and this board is taking 1000 hours to load. Somebody give me a quick summary. Whoever is first gets a ban immunity for 30 days. Come home by Friday. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 1, 2024 Share Posted January 1, 2024 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I’m on the beach and this board is taking 1000 hours to load. Somebody give me a quick summary. Whoever is first gets a ban immunity for 30 days. The surface is pretty warm. I doubt I-95 sees accumulating snowfall, but models are holding on 1 1 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 1, 2024 Author Share Posted January 1, 2024 2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: The surface is pretty warm. I doubt I-95 sees accumulating snowfall, but models are holding on Except you 3 22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 1, 2024 Author Share Posted January 1, 2024 3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Come home by Friday. I home tomm homie 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 1, 2024 Share Posted January 1, 2024 The surface is pretty warm. I doubt I-95 sees accumulating snowfall, but models are holding onThe new Ji…Rates overcome marginal surface temps as mid levels stay cold enough. Has happened many times before. I-95 gets a mauling of precip, which mitigates that issue. As depicted, that’s heavy snow at 33 degrees, not rain. It’s not a lock, but if the storm evolves as the GFS depicts, DC to Baltimore would see warning level snowfall with more snow to the WNW. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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