osfan24 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Alright, let's find a way to slow this thing down and stall it and bomb right over us to get a KU. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 just for fun cips analogs for the 7th 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 high placement has been very consistent the last 3-4 runs on the GFS, gotta love 50/50s 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: We'll run circles defining the hybrids. We've done it many times lol. Any storm that jumps is called a Miller b because it looks like one but me and you dont see it that way. Barolclinic transfers from a low approaching from the deep south is not a Miller b in my book. They usually have big juicy WAA in front. A defining difference from a NS Miller B that never gets going until it's gaining latitude. Just my take and separates the 2 in my brain with how I view the possibilities. To me it depends how far southeast of the primary the secondary low develops...If it's a center jump, that's an A to me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, DarkSharkWX said: just for fun Actually that is fun. Those are some dates that spark a big smile 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Looks like a follow-up will wash that away on Tuesday and flooding will be a concern! Going to be a wet set of systems back-to-back. Busy days ahead. Not too focused on that at this time, but something to watch soon after the snow fun 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 8 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Not worth fretting about. Column is fine and heavy snow accumulates. Our risk is track. Ya those depth maps are good in lighter events but in heavy rates and marginal temps they can be way low. If it snows hard it will accumulate. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 50 minutes ago, Terpeast said: I was telling psuhoffman the other day that if we got to January 1 and there was nothing noteworthy as a threat in the next 15 days, I would downgrade my snowfall forecast for the entire area by about 25%. Here we are, it's Jan 1 and we're tracking a threat that just might pan out for us. Not planning on any changes to my outlook until after the 1/7 event passes, then I will reassess from there. Downgrade may still happen if we go all rain in the low lands, which is not off the table yet. In a similar vein, I concluded and stated at Christmas that if the pattern was not changed by 1/10 then it would not change, I have to give kudos to those who said “Nino…be patient” You were correct . I also contend that a delay pattern was underway that needed to cease. I too knew it was a nino and that’s why I was 50/50 on how much trouble we were in. Again though, kudos to the who persistently offered “ nino..be patient “ I want to ask if others are having this ? It’s been so long time since having a reasonably good potential for a big event to follow well in advance that I Have LOST my conscious contact with” I have a weather event to follow” Any body else? I’ve been like dinner snd then maybe go watch Washington Texas after wife time, Nothing in the noggin about weather until …Oops…Snow Event To Follow!! Anybody else? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: Actually that is fun. Those are some dates that spark a big smile lol that has the 4 largest snowstorms I’ve ever experienced and a few other one-footers 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Andrew Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 2 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said: just for fun cips analogs for the 7th Question: What does top analog take into account? Pattern, progression, snow amounts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Actually that is fun. Those are some dates that spark a big smile One of those is that little storm in 1997 I referenced a little while ago. lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 4 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said: high placement has been very consistent the last 3-4 runs on the GFS, gotta love 50/50s I think a faster jump to the coast actually helps us 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, Jersey Andrew said: Question: What does top analog take into account? Pattern, progression, snow amounts? its not that great but pattern and storm evolution so it says the top analog is feb 05-06 2010 bc of indicies values and similarity in storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 5 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said: just for fun cips analogs for the 7th Jan 2016 woah 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Happy Happy Hour! Looking forward to a snowier 2024. It looks like we are off to a good start. I sure have missed this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 41 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Not to get too far off-topic (but we're not in storm mode or anything yet!)...but yeah, they are large birds!! And you can hear their call quite clearly and far away (very distinctive). They don't seem to mind people just sitting there watching them even fairly close. I'd say I was a few yards down from this tree looking up at him, and was using a 500mm lens when I took that. I literally took a dozen or so shots at different angles, and saved the better ones (some were blurry because his head was moving too fast). The ones here are 15” long. You are lucky because these here are very flighty and I can’t approach. They just run right up the tree and into their hole 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 On 12/30/2023 at 11:33 AM, psuhoffman said: Not bothered by that. It takes an identical track and similar local evolution to Feb 5 2010. (Not expecting the same results Feb 2010 stalled for 12 hours) The precip wouldn’t likely be that shunted given its STJ origins. That’s a typical long range error. Why I get shown as fringed on these way more than it actually happens. 6 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said: just for fun cips analogs for the 7th Look at number 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Jan 2016 woah Top Analog is Feb 2010. That works for me. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 5 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said: just for fun cips analogs for the 7th Obviously all the juggernauts stick out, but the cautionary tales are there too 1/26/15 was only 1-2" for DC and IIRC 2/8/97 was warmish and mixy in the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 21 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Its not really a B though. Agreed but it’s close 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 there is a bit of similarity w the track 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 83 is on those analogs as well. That is a tasty list. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 You could see that piece of energy was just a little sharper by 96 and that made a big difference 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 hour ago, Terpeast said: I was telling psuhoffman the other day that if we got to January 1 and there was nothing noteworthy as a threat in the next 15 days, I would downgrade my snowfall forecast for the entire area by about 25%. Here we are, it's Jan 1 and we're tracking a threat that just might pan out for us. Not planning on any changes to my outlook until after the 1/7 event passes, then I will reassess from there. Downgrade may still happen if we go all rain in the low lands, which is not off the table yet. Honestly up here in the northern Mid-Atlantic in my winter weather outlooks I do not retool until January 20th each year that is my magic date. This year I was going for 20-35" in Central Delaware County in Extreme SE PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 25 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: CoD has me at 15" 10:1, 10" Kucera, and 2" snow depth. LOL Is that estimated after we get horsepissed on three days later? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 GEFS is going to rock 11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 gefs follows op, stronger SE canada confluence as well as stronger SW, therefore stronger HP 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 That follow up Midwest Blizzard is something else. 972? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Andrew Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Jan 2016 woah Jan 2016 was first forecast to be DC-Baltimore special with only glancing blow to NYC. I was living up in northeast Jersey at the time and was stunned we got 28 inches. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 2 minutes ago, mattie g said: Is that estimated after we get horsepissed on three days later? I’ll tell ya that I think a deep snow cover might change that one too. I could easily see a further east track and tons of cad. Still a cutter/jumper but front end thump to icy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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