Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming

[stormy]

This is a classic track from the 60's!!

[ravensrule]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Tucked 

I think we should call this the Justin Tucker storm. 

[Weather Will]

Some wind too...WB GFS

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Cold high location exactly the same the last 3 runs, remarkable consistency

[winter_warlock]

Just now, Weather Will said:

Some wind too...WB GFS

 Hmmm  might not have the temps for it but we would definitely  have blizzard criteria  winds!!!

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

Just now, CAPE said:

That is pretty far north.

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Its not really a B though. 

I’m not having that debate again. 

[MN Transplant]

3 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Seriously?

Not worth fretting about.  Column is fine and heavy snow accumulates.  Our risk is track.

[clskinsfan]

4 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Cold high location exactly the same the last 3 runs, remarkable consistency

And the high is getting stronger with each run. Its a shame there is nothing to stall it. But it is a classic bomb. Just gorgeous. 

[winter_warlock]

1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

That is pretty far north.

Nice 1032 high to the north too!!

[Amped]

February track.  Just moves a little too fast for 30" totals.

[Quasievil]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

That’s how we would setup the snow map if we wanted it to snow here. High pressure just in Canada, low over Hatteras, 50/50, a little east but whatever. Nearly Textbook.

[Terpeast]

For fun - 138h sounding at KIAD in the middle of the storm

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Happy happy hour!

Sipping my last 120. Looking really good for the NW crew, and it remains to be seen for the lowlands. A bit tenuous. Last 2 runs of the GFS are perfectly acceptable though.

[H2O]

Just now, Terpeast said:

For fun - 138h sounding at KIAD in the middle of the storm

Now do DCA. Lol

[AtlanticWx]

i would like to see south shifts on the ensembles & models into 0z now.

[Benjamn3]

[Terpeast]

Just now, H2O said:

Now do DCA. Lol

[Bob Chill]

6 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Its not really a B though. 

We'll run circles defining the hybrids. We've done it many times lol.

 

Any storm that jumps is called a Miller b because it looks like one but me and you dont see it that way. Barolclinic transfers from a low approaching from the deep south is not a Miller b in my book. They usually have big juicy WAA in front. A defining difference from a NS Miller B that never gets going until it's gaining latitude. Just my take and separates the 2 in my brain with how I view the possibilities.

[Terpeast]

Just now, AtlanticWx said:

i would like to see south shifts on the ensembles & models into 0z now.

Me too. We have so little wiggle room and we can't afford a slight north jog. 18z gfs just gave us a bit more breathing room

[Eskimo Joe]

3 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

For fun - 138h sounding at KIAD in the middle of the storm

Perfect.

[Benjamn3]

2 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said:

i would like to see south shifts on the ensembles & models into 0z now.

I would love to see this sumbitch shift south a hair and to see the CAD beef up more. 

[AtlanticWx]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

Me too. We have so little wiggle room and we can't afford a slight north jog. 18z gfs just gave us a bit more breathing room

yeah i like seeing all that snow south of the fall line. but euro definitely scares me.

while ik icon is shit, im just glad it shifted south

[osfan24]

Alright, let's find a way to slow this thing down and stall it and bomb right over us to get a KU.

[DarkSharkWX]

just for fun cips analogs for the 7th

[DarkSharkWX]

high placement has been very consistent the last 3-4 runs on the GFS, gotta love 50/50s

[BristowWx]

Just now, DarkSharkWX said:

just for fun

Actually that is fun.  Those are some dates that spark a big smile 

[midatlanticweather]

Looks like a follow-up will wash that away on Tuesday and flooding will be a concern! Going to be a wet set of systems back-to-back. Busy days ahead. 

Not too focused on that at this time, but something to watch soon after the snow fun

 

 

[psuhoffman]

8 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Not worth fretting about.  Column is fine and heavy snow accumulates.  Our risk is track.

Ya those depth maps are good in lighter events but in heavy rates and marginal temps they can be way low. If it snows hard it will accumulate. 

[WEATHER53]

50 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I was telling psuhoffman the other day that if we got to January 1 and there was nothing noteworthy as a threat in the next 15 days, I would downgrade my snowfall forecast for the entire area by about 25%. 

Here we are, it's Jan 1 and we're tracking a threat that just might pan out for us. Not planning on any changes to my outlook until after the 1/7 event passes, then I will reassess from there. Downgrade may still happen if we go all rain in the low lands, which is not off the table yet. 

In a similar vein, I concluded and stated at  Christmas that if the pattern was not changed by 1/10 then it would not change, I have to give kudos to those who said “Nino…be patient” You were correct . I also contend that a delay pattern was underway that needed to cease. I too knew it was a nino and that’s why I was 50/50 on how much trouble we were in. Again though, kudos to the who persistently offered “ nino..be patient “

I want to ask if others are having this ? It’s been so long time since having a reasonably good potential for a big event to follow well in advance that I Have LOST my conscious contact with”  I have a weather event to follow”  Any body else? I’ve been like dinner snd  then maybe go watch Washington  Texas after wife time,

Nothing in the noggin about weather until …Oops…Snow Event To Follow!!

Anybody else?