Buddy1987 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Icon looks to be south some once again with precip shield at 108. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 I was telling psuhoffman the other day that if we got to January 1 and there was nothing noteworthy as a threat in the next 15 days, I would downgrade my snowfall forecast for the entire area by about 25%. Here we are, it's Jan 1 and we're tracking a threat that just might pan out for us. Not planning on any changes to my outlook until after the 1/7 event passes, then I will reassess from there. Downgrade may still happen if we go all rain in the low lands, which is not off the table yet. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 27 minutes ago, Scraff said: Too early to start pre-gaming for the 18z GooFuS? Other Half Green Power DIPA making me feel like happy hour is about to deliver the goods. So much for dry January! It’s about to be wet and white January! Oh god. Too many jokes left tee’d up…. Better be careful, that's close to pushing @ravensrule's bat signal right there! He's already answered a couple of inadvertent ones earlier in this thread! But seriously, yes, hoping the 18Z GFS keeps this thing going. We're going to see things move around back and forth (with attendant mood swings in here every blasted model cycle!), but it would be nice to keep this storm there and alive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 8 minutes ago, Terpeast said: I was telling psuhoffman the other day that if we got to January 1 and there was nothing noteworthy as a threat in the next 15 days, I would downgrade my snowfall forecast for the entire area by about 25%. Here we are, it's Jan 1 and we're tracking a threat that just might pan out for us. Not planning on any changes to my outlook until after the 1/7 event passes, then I will reassess from there. Downgrade may still happen if we go all rain in the low lands, which is not off the table yet. I’m in the same boat but I’m also waiting to see how the pattern evolves after the likely cutter. If the eps is right and we get to that look by Jan 15th or so…a lot of the big analog years the majority of the snow fell after Jan 20 anyways. EPS is heading toward having the look we want by then. 66 and 87 had pretty much nothing in the cities before Jan 20. 87 there was a coastal storm that dropped like 6” here and 12 up in PA but was mostly rain in the cities right around the same time as this threat. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 OK, so we've had talk of squirrels, big dogs (NOT Dawgs, damn you Georgia!), ducks, albatrosses, whatever. But how about a pileated woodpecker? Saw this guy digging away at a tree nearby where I'm at...he just went about his business and didn't mind me standing there taking several photos. You can see some of the wood chips he tossed aside. I hear when a woodpecker is busy, it portends a snowstorm. Well, not really, but it sounds good! 13 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, Always in Zugzwang said: OK, so we've had talk of squirrels, big dogs (NOT Dawgs, damn you Georgia!), ducks, albatrosses, whatever. But how about a pileated woodpecker? Saw this guy digging away at a tree nearby where I'm at...he just went about his business and didn't mind me standing there taking several photos. You can see some of the wood chips he tossed aside. I hear when a woodpecker is busy, it portends a snowstorm. Well, not really, but it sounds good! Woodpecker. @ravensrulehigh school nickname. Ok back to weather. Who’s doing PBP for happy hour GooFuS? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Here's the surface of the 18z ICON at 120 hours (18z sat): versus 12z run (valid 18z sat): The low is right on the SC/NC coastal border, instead of hanging back in GA. ICON also has a stronger high up top on the newer run by a few mbs 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 OK, so we've had talk of squirrels, big dogs (NOT Dawgs, damn you Georgia!), ducks, albatrosses, whatever. But how about a pileated woodpecker? Saw this guy digging away at a tree nearby where I'm at...he just went about his business and didn't mind me standing there taking several photos. You can see some of the wood chips he tossed aside. I hear when a woodpecker is busy, it portends a snowstorm. Well, not really, but it sounds good!Saw one yesterday fly across the road in front of my car. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 HP is really nice on the ICON. Much nicer vs 12z 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 7 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: OK, so we've had talk of squirrels, big dogs (NOT Dawgs, damn you Georgia!), ducks, albatrosses, whatever. But how about a pileated woodpecker? Saw this guy digging away at a tree nearby where I'm at...he just went about his business and didn't mind me standing there taking several photos. You can see some of the wood chips he tossed aside. I hear when a woodpecker is busy, it portends a snowstorm. Well, not really, but it sounds good! I have a pair of them up in 200 year old black walnut tree. They are very elusive but did see one twice this year. Last year saw them both together once. They are Big. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Amelia Draper totally poo pooing for the cities . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, WEATHER53 said: I have a pair of them up in 200 year old black walnut tree. They are very elusive but did see one twice this year. Last year saw them both together once. They are Big. Not to get too far off-topic (but we're not in storm mode or anything yet!)...but yeah, they are large birds!! And you can hear their call quite clearly and far away (very distinctive). They don't seem to mind people just sitting there watching them even fairly close. I'd say I was a few yards down from this tree looking up at him, and was using a 500mm lens when I took that. I literally took a dozen or so shots at different angles, and saved the better ones (some were blurry because his head was moving too fast). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 32 minutes ago, andyhb said: I don’t check in here all that often, but I’ll summarize the last few days of model runs for January across most of the CONUS in a couple of words. Switch. Flipped. Good seeing you in the sub Andy! Hope all is well down in Norman. If you ever want to take the NWS route, feel free to reach out. Hopefully the southern stream can give you guys some fun later this month through winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 10 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: HP is really nice on the ICON. Much nicer vs 12z Be careful what you wish for. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 9 minutes ago, DCAlexandria said: Amelia Draper totally poo pooing for the cities . Probably a good thing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 2 hours ago, stormtracker said: Dude, at that time I was doing drunken backflips in some club. I was told. I just woke up. Going back and reading shit now It’s about as perfect a track as we get. Try to keep low not lower than 1000 and cold air can hold . If it does end up 50 miles east of OC then it is following some history makers. I liked this a lot from a week ago and said do then. It was an example of where our goodies come from and made sense.aUpur creation of a new thread sprinkled in the magic snow dust it looks like!!! Hope your trip is Great and Happy Nude Year 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Be careful what you wish for. I’m thinking what you’re thinking. There is such a thing as too much of a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 11 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: I have a pair of them up in 200 year old black walnut tree. They are very elusive but did see one twice this year. Last year saw them both together once. They are Big. Keep vigilant for carpenter bees. If they are around those woodpeckers will stop at nothing to get at them. That includes deck boards and siding. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Keep vigilant for carpenter bees. If they are around those woodpeckers will stop at nothing to get at them. That includes deck boards and siding. Hate the carpenter bees. We moved into our new house a few years ago and they had put so many holes in our wood fence. I've spend the past couple of years trying to eradicate them and fill in the holes. People that lived here before us did like zero maintenance on anything. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 GFS would seem to be on a similar path to 12z. Early though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Welcome to the home and gardening forum. 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Does the ICON go all the way out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: GFS would seem to be on a similar path to 12z. Early though Wedging looks to have improved once again ever so slightly looking at the isollbars on h5 as cold air really gets entrenched. You can see them push far down south and west into Georgia. Good to see that so far. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Be careful what you wish for. Yah, I think extrapolating the ICON at range is like doing so with the NAM but this looks like it would be suppressed to me if the run continued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Climo says 3-6" east of the fall line. If it doesn't completely fall apart. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: GFS would seem to be on a similar path to 12z. Early though 1028 HP north of Superior is diving S.E. faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benjamn3 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 28 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: OK, so we've had talk of squirrels, big dogs (NOT Dawgs, damn you Georgia!), ducks, albatrosses, whatever. But how about a pileated woodpecker? Saw this guy digging away at a tree nearby where I'm at...he just went about his business and didn't mind me standing there taking several photos. You can see some of the wood chips he tossed aside. I hear when a woodpecker is busy, it portends a snowstorm. Well, not really, but it sounds good! We have a nest at our place (our property is next to the National Forrest in our area)so we see several flying around. Great big ol rascals. I will say they have been busy and the squirrels nests are high this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 GFS is very nice. better confluent flow in SE Canada leads to a stronger HP. vort is more organized 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Gfs coming north of 12z 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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