arlwx12 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Oh NOOO! LWX has put a foot on your bandwagon too! (And a foot off it...) (snip) A vigorous shortwave in the southern stream will track across Texas toward the northern Gulf of Mexico Friday night. This will cause an area of low pressure to form along the Gulf Coast. This area of low pressure will track northeastward along with its parent shortwave during the day Saturday into Saturday night, rapidly intensifying as it does so. While there is still considerable spread with respect to track six days out, model guidance generally has the primary low associated with this system tracking somewhere between the eastern Ohio Valley and the Carolina coastline, with the majority of guidance showing a track just off to our south and east. While uncertainty with respect to track and resultant impacts remains high, the potential is there for locations to the east of the mountains to receive their first major snowstorm in two years. Ensemble guidance (especially the EPS) showed a significant increase in probabilities for snowfall across the region with the 00z cycle last night. At the moment, the greatest chance for significant snow appears to be near and west of the Blue Ridge, while lesser but non-zero probabilities for significant snowfall exist further east. The track of the low will be critical, and an all rain scenario is still on the table to the east of the Blue Ridge. If that were to occur, there could potentially be issues with flooding as well. We`ll continue to keep an eye on this system over the upcoming week, as the potential is there for it to have a significant impact across the entire forecast area. (snip) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It's close...but we need to get that ridge in the PAC into AK and the trough in the plains centered into the TN Valley... that is not a huge adjustment but that would make that a much better snow look. As is that runs the risk of being a cutter look even with the block. Normally I feel like our best snows is when the trough is aligned from a point of about Arkansas/Missouri area and in that general vicinity so yes mid Mississippi valley area into TN valley is the “sweet spot” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 WB global ensembles at day 13. Hopefully GEFS is out to lunch. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB global ensembles at day 13. Hopefully GEFS is out to lunch. given that the GEFS has a pretty large progressive bias and that the -NAO is formed due to wave breaking, I would be more inclined to believe the EPS and GEPS 9 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 12 z GEM warms the 850 temp. from minus 5 to plus 1 from 00z to 12z over Augusta, Sat. 7 pm. 24 hr. qp drops from 1.28 to .81. A little concerning but an outlier at this juncture. The 12z Euro keeps us in pay dirt but the margin of safety is shrinking as the 850 & 925 warms a few degrees on the 12z compared to 00z early Saturday night. Is the GEM focused on a trend that the EURO is only beginning to sniff. The 18z GFS may be important. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxtrix Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 i wonder if anyone else saw this on Friday: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, Wxtrix said: i wonder if anyone else saw this on Friday: Yes it was shared. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 23 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: don't worry, it gets there. bombs away with this look I might have to duck…but that’s likely shifting east behind a cutter however it leads to this which is VERY much a hecs look for the east coast. It just is likely the wave after the one you’re showing there. Now if I want to be picky that there looks like the ideal composite for a NYC to Boston hecs. The negatives are a bit north of where we want south of 40. But it’s going to adjust some from that range and it’s so damn close to perfect. And been trending that way for 3 days how. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 34 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: i would be remiss to not mention this. this is a legit KU level block. 3 sigma at 12 days out is insane T Thye need to fly baby fly! All the way to Georgia and Florida! They know! Now the squirrels are going ape shit to stock up on nuts. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 29 minutes ago, arlwx12 said: Oh NOOO! LWX has put a foot on your bandwagon too! (And a foot off it...) (snip) A vigorous shortwave in the southern stream will track across Texas toward the northern Gulf of Mexico Friday night. This will cause an area of low pressure to form along the Gulf Coast. This area of low pressure will track northeastward along with its parent shortwave during the day Saturday into Saturday night, rapidly intensifying as it does so. While there is still considerable spread with respect to track six days out, model guidance generally has the primary low associated with this system tracking somewhere between the eastern Ohio Valley and the Carolina coastline, with the majority of guidance showing a track just off to our south and east. While uncertainty with respect to track and resultant impacts remains high, the potential is there for locations to the east of the mountains to receive their first major snowstorm in two years. Ensemble guidance (especially the EPS) showed a significant increase in probabilities for snowfall across the region with the 00z cycle last night. At the moment, the greatest chance for significant snow appears to be near and west of the Blue Ridge, while lesser but non-zero probabilities for significant snowfall exist further east. The track of the low will be critical, and an all rain scenario is still on the table to the east of the Blue Ridge. If that were to occur, there could potentially be issues with flooding as well. We`ll continue to keep an eye on this system over the upcoming week, as the potential is there for it to have a significant impact across the entire forecast area. (snip) It's been a long time since we've read something like that! Drool worthy! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 @WxUSAF @brooklynwx99 @Terpeast Also, it’s likely already heading where we want just might have to suffer one miss to our north first. Id be curious if the red tags agree with where I think this was heading That next wave is likely to dig towards to TN valley and 48 hours after this we have the mid Atlantic hecs look. Also in the pacific the split flow is taking shape and the pac jet is undercutting the ridge which will cut off the loading of the -pna. Yes systems will crash into the southwest but they will be cutoff and not going to pump a huge SER. Agree? 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @WxUSAF @brooklynwx99 @Terpeast Also, it’s likely already heading where we want just might have to suffer one miss to our north first. Id be curious if the red tags agree with where I think this was heading That next wave is likely to dig towards to TN valley and 48 hours after this we have the mid Atlantic hecs look. Also in the pacific the split flow is taking shape and the pac jet is undercutting the ridge which will cut off the loading of the -pna. Yes systems will crash into the southwest but they will be cutoff and not going to pump a huge SER. Agree? Agree. The panel brooklyn posted would be the likely cutter that sets up the 50 low under the block and the next wave could undercut the TPV. It’s a great setup. Loaded with potential What’s more, the 50/50 would also help sustain the block long enough for the potential to play out 8 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Pretty classic situation next weekend. Said it yesterday but took some heat for voicing what I was feeling after seeing the signal across all 3 ens means families. Will say it again....this has all the makings of a big hit to the left of the fall line, I95 the usual mix zone. Still think ops will bounce around quite a bit the next several days. But folks...we are tracking!!! It's high time to head for anyplace west of Hillsboro on Rt 9. Great times! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 I think you’re on the right track @psuhoffman. Our big dogs often don’t have a monster PNA ridge, the biggest anomalies are the NAO/AO ridging usually. So if that shortwave you’ve indicated rolls east with the ridge behind it…it would look like a lot of our KU patterns. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 45 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB global ensembles at day 13. Hopefully GEFS is out to lunch. i i forgot the GEFS are outdated. They never got an update like the GFS. its now wonder they are always so out of snyc 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 13 minutes ago, Jebman said: It's high time to head for anyplace west of Hillsboro on Rt 9. Great times! rich people call it Waterford Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 4 minutes ago, Ji said: i forgot the GEFS are outdated. They never got an update like the GFS. its now wonder they are always so out of snyc Wait, is that really true?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: Wait, is that really true?! @dtk is this true?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 This is obviously a year old, but FWIW Looks to be true. I don't see much when I google GEFS v13 other than some talk about what's coming/etc. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 [mention=1861]dtk[/mention] is this true?. Tomer Berg said something to that effect on Twitter earlier IIRC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Tomer Berg said something to that effect on Twitter earlier IIRC Interesting. Thanks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Interesting. Thanks. https://x.com/burgwx/status/1741867069488890044?s=46&t=YRAxGyE8QLsoshMtJniktg 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: https://x.com/burgwx/status/1741867069488890044?s=46&t=YRAxGyE8QLsoshMtJniktg Interesting. So how do we use that information when comparing the GEFS with op GFS and other models? Is the GEFS better at shorter lead times and less so at longer lead times (10-15+ days)? Or if the op GFS takes a different track than the GEFS mean, do we lean more on the op GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 if this is even close to accurate for mid January- most everyone has a shot for glory 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Andrew Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: Interesting. So how do we use that information when comparing the GEFS with op GFS and other models? Is the GEFS better at shorter lead times and less so at longer lead times (10-15+ days)? Or if the op GFS takes a different track than the GEFS mean, do we lean more on the op GFS? Actually think this hobby is so fascinating because of model discrepancies, biases, and disagreements. If they all agreed, would we enjoy the great chase as much? Gen Z will probably develop some AI that does away with uncertainty but until then enjoy the conversations and get ready for the Happy Hour GFS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Too early to start pre-gaming for the 18z GooFuS? Other Half Green Power DIPA making me feel like happy hour is about to deliver the goods. So much for dry January! It’s about to be wet and white January! Oh god. Too many jokes left tee’d up…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Hoping this goes big for you guys! I’m most likely sitting this one out here in coastal NJ, just gonna be too close to the low. But this looks like it has the potential to be a pretty great event for many. My nephew is actually down in Cockeysville now for grad school and he loves it there. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Nice to see some positivity up in this place for a change! Let’s keep it rolling with HH GOOFUS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 I don’t check in here all that often, but I’ll summarize the last few days of model runs for January across most of the CONUS in a couple of words. Switch. Flipped. 22 2 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, andyhb said: I don’t check in here all that often, but I’ll summarize the last few days of model runs for January across list of the CONUS in a couple of words. Switch. Flipped. Andy I love seeing you post here. It makes me hopeful . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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