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Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming


stormtracker
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Just now, aldie 22 said:

I have to ask is this an act for the board or are you truly this manic?

What are you talking about? Strong antecedent high in Quebec is a must for snow in these parts. Too far east and we get southeast winds eating any surface CAD.

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Two camps right now.  Either a weak miller B with temp issues for 95 and NW wins, or Miller A that can shift to have temp issues for 95 and NW wins.  
Basically NW wins.

Don’t think there was ever really a doubt NW would win with a marginal airmass in place and a low tracking just offshore. Highly unlikely the suppressed looks with jackpots in SVA pan out given the setup.
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Those snow maps give me PTSD from growing up in Takoma Park and also living in Woodbridge...moving north and west has generally helped but not always...still glad I did though 

It helped when we were best friend neighbors in Leesburg
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That zero line is too close for comfort but it looks like precip won’t be a problem!

You know the drill though… those areas JUST west of the zero line will get hammered with QPF.

Could very well have a situation where eastern Howard county sees 3-6” and western Howard county sees 6-12”. Going to be a close one for many areas within 5 or so miles of 95.
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1 hour ago, H2O said:

Two camps right now.  Either a weak miller B with temp issues for 95 and NW wins, or Miller A that can shift to have temp issues for 95 and NW wins.  

Basically NW wins.

One thing of note is that the GFS doesnt allow the snow to get much north of NYC, with backend banding setting up over the mid atlantic:

 

image.thumb.png.5a8d1a268cab7d60b449b51eee713339.png

 

While the Euro is a quick thump to dryslot and it snows all the way up the coast:

 

image.thumb.png.c386307f6425f446d49e8874e6c2562b.pngblock

 

I am not expert but given our previous experience with these types of setups, I feel like the GFS would be more plausible. 

I want to see this storm hit our latitude, stall, pivot and then get crushed by ULL rotating through, that would lead to >18 hours of snow.  

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3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i would be remiss to not mention this. this is a legit KU level block. 3 sigma at 12 days out is insane

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_norm_anom-5082400.thumb.png.d8cbdd4e3dba25a910adda879c350a4d.png

It's close...but we need to get that ridge in the PAC into AK and the trough in the plains centered into the TN Valley... that is not a huge adjustment but that would make that a much better snow look. As is that runs the risk of being a cutter look even with the block. 

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3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It's close...but we need to get that ridge in the PAC into AK and the trough in the plains centered into the TN Valley... that is not a huge adjustment but that would make that a much better snow look. As is that runs the risk of being a cutter look even with the block. 

don't worry, it gets there. bombs away with this look

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-5212000.thumb.png.53a85d8fc2c6f8e129cbae931acea570.png

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