jaydreb Posted January 1, 2024 Share Posted January 1, 2024 12z Euro, lp in Knoxville at 123. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 1, 2024 Share Posted January 1, 2024 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 1, 2024 Share Posted January 1, 2024 Pretty classic RA/SN gradient but verbatim DC is fine through 135Surface temps not technically cooperating but upper levels are 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 1, 2024 Share Posted January 1, 2024 Euro is even faster than the GFS. Has precip breaking out by 18Z Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 1, 2024 Share Posted January 1, 2024 that works 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 1, 2024 Share Posted January 1, 2024 Temps and Dew points heading into the event are really solid on the Euro. Mid 20's dews for everyone. Surface below freezing down to RIC. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 1, 2024 Share Posted January 1, 2024 Temps warmer compared to 0z. DC barely holding on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 1, 2024 Share Posted January 1, 2024 That primary hangs on a bit too long over the OH valley. 95 changes over but just NW of the cities look to stay all snow. Also this thing now starts Saturday afternoon on the Euro. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 1, 2024 Share Posted January 1, 2024 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 1, 2024 Share Posted January 1, 2024 Some OH valley low still in this run vs almost 100% coastal low at 0z. Hence warmer for coastal plain areas. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 1, 2024 Share Posted January 1, 2024 fall line gradient storm. W of the fall line will be fine. Those E of the fall line know the drill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 1, 2024 Share Posted January 1, 2024 not done yet! 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 1, 2024 Share Posted January 1, 2024 Just need a little better press from the NE to get that to transfer quicker. Good run all things considered. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 1, 2024 Share Posted January 1, 2024 Two camps right now. Either a weak miller B with temp issues for 95 and NW wins, or Miller A that can shift to have temp issues for 95 and NW wins. Basically NW wins. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 1, 2024 Share Posted January 1, 2024 Just now, LP08 said: Just need a little better press from the NE to get that to transfer quicker. Good run all things considered. Yep, in spite of that OH valley low hanging on, shows we’re still in the game. Good run. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 1, 2024 Share Posted January 1, 2024 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: not done yet! Main difference there is 10:1 vs Kuchera, not the timing. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 1, 2024 Share Posted January 1, 2024 1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Didn't see that coming. Wow! 10:1 looks better for DC than Kuchera. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 1, 2024 Share Posted January 1, 2024 Main difference there is 10:1 vs Kuchera, not the timing. Ah, my bad. At this range I prefer the snowiest snow map anyway 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 1, 2024 Share Posted January 1, 2024 2 minutes ago, H2O said: Two camps right now. Either a weak miller B with temp issues for 95 and NW wins, or Miller A that can shift to have temp issues for 95 and NW wins. Basically NW wins. What’s nice to see is that the guidance is getting more uniform with a respectable high and confluence to our north. Makes the airmass much less marginal heading into the weekend. Euro has lows in the low 20s Friday morning with dews in the low-mid 10s. Mid 20s Saturday morning. @clskinsfan mentioned this above. Differences in the solutions now seem more on how the 2 shortwaves interact. 11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 1, 2024 Share Posted January 1, 2024 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: Ah, my bad. At this range I prefer the snowiest snow map anyway We know how to roll. Hug the snowiest clown map all day every day. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 1, 2024 Share Posted January 1, 2024 Just now, WxUSAF said: What’s nice to see is that the guidance is getting more uniform with a respectable high and confluence to our north. Makes the airmass much less marginal heading into the weekend. Euro has lows in the low 20s Friday morning with dews in the low-mid 10s. Mid 20s Saturday morning. @clskinsfan mentioned this above. Differences in the solutions now seem more on how the 2 shortwaves interact. Game on, pushing chips in 24 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 1, 2024 Share Posted January 1, 2024 Synoptically, that was a solid run overall. ECMWF is too warm with the thermals in the boundary layer. In fact, it has heavy snow within a deformation band over FDK into central PA with temps at 34F. That's not happening in this setup. Takes the thermals with a grain of salt. UL progression was still good and is well within the envelope of potential outcomes. Fall line and west are still favored and those east and south need to temper expectations. This is a classic storm with those caveats. The CAD is there, but this isn't an arctic driller. 22 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 1, 2024 Share Posted January 1, 2024 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: What’s nice to see is that the guidance is getting more uniform with a respectable high and confluence to our north. Makes the airmass much less marginal heading into the weekend. Euro has lows in the low 20s Friday morning with dews in the low-mid 10s. Mid 20s Saturday morning. @clskinsfan mentioned this above. Differences in the solutions now seem more on how the 2 shortwaves interact. For the lowlands you need a bit more help tho. Like cold temps Sat morning is great, low dews as well. But you need cloud cover to come in quick and cap warming. Too much sun will warm and that cold bleed down over the fall line then takes forever. Been there before. Not gonna fret over thermals 4 days out just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 1, 2024 Share Posted January 1, 2024 14 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Temps warmer compared to 0z. DC barely holding on. If low in that position then rain/snow line further south. it’s showing a tendency toward earlier start which always is better for DC. Clear overnight with increasing clouds by dawn thus keeping temps down and onset in afternoon with a 3-5 degree temp drop after onset what with dews ranging 25-28. Finally snow fun comes back to DC!! 12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 1, 2024 Share Posted January 1, 2024 25 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: not done yet! Lol, totals went down on a total snowfall map at a later time stamp. Shows how useful they are Edit: different maps, same dumbass poster. Carry on 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1, 2024 Share Posted January 1, 2024 Pretty classic situation next weekend. Said it yesterday but took some heat for voicing what I was feeling after seeing the signal across all 3 ens means families. Will say it again....this has all the makings of a big hit to the left of the fall line, I95 the usual mix zone. Still think ops will bounce around quite a bit the next several days. But folks...we are tracking!!! 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Andrew Posted January 1, 2024 Share Posted January 1, 2024 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Pretty classic situation next weekend. Said it yesterday but took some heat for voicing what I was feeling after seeing the signal across all 3 ens means families. Will say it again....this has all the makings of a big hit to the left of the fall line, I95 the usual mix zone. Still think ops will bounce around quite a bit the next several days. But folks...we are tracking!!! Looks like a ton heavy precip events in next couple months. If we go down like ‘73 or ‘98 so be it but I think we will hit some big snow events too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 1, 2024 Share Posted January 1, 2024 Those snow maps give me PTSD from growing up in Takoma Park and also living in Woodbridge...moving north and west has generally helped but not always...still glad I did though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 1, 2024 Share Posted January 1, 2024 Any word on the EPS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 1, 2024 Share Posted January 1, 2024 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: Any word on the EPS? pretty great 9 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now