NorthArlington101 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said: You sure about that? The mean at 85H during storm height is -2 with 10th percentile at -4C and 90th at 1C. It was actually a nice showing imo. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: You sure about that? The mean at 85H during storm height is -2 with 10th percentile at -4C and 90th at 1C. It was actually a nice showing imo. 3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Yeah. East of the Blue Ridge has some temp issues. Around an inch of QPF for the 24hr mean. Pretty juicy for the GEFS. Especially with it being a swift mover. Spelling mistake on my part. I corrected the post. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: Looks like it stays below freezing to me!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: I can't see the image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, MillvilleWx said: I can't see the image Just visualized what you said - don't drop below 0c 850. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Here is early am Sunday. Surface temps are marginal. 850s look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: Spelling mistake on my part. I corrected the post. Ahhh. Gotcha! Happens to the best of us. Could be worse. Imagine seeing it while submitting your discussion at work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 3 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Note the trend of the cold HP strength up top on the gefs That's really good to see. Gives us some wiggle room for the last minute bleed north that always seems to happen. Who knows if it happens this time but history says it ussually does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: Spelling mistake on my part. I corrected the post. I was looking at the surface anyways. Just ignore my stupidity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: Here is early am Sunday. Surface temps are marginal. 850s look good. Thermal profile modeling will be worked out later as we get closer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 UKMET has a 990 due east of ORF but temps are iffy east of the Blue Ridge. I haven’t tracked UKMET much to know how it does on thermals vs 500. Looks like a true Miller A track. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 3 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: I can't see the image The 0 line advances as far north as vicinity Ashland VA 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 WB 12Z GEFS probs 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Uk is over an inch QPF for the event for everyone. Close to 1.5 for the cities. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 CMC is simply amped. It wasn't the elephant OH transfer solution. If the euro shows the same heights (or better) at hrs 60-72 like the gfs/icon did, we can start not worrying about the most heartbreaking type of outcome. Didn't take much at all to knock that solution down today. Very subtle shift. Same with temps. I think too many people jumped the gun on a few wobbles warm past few days. I didn't like seeing it either but long range tracking shouldn't laser in so quickly. Being reactionary to ops beyond d4 can greatly reduce personal verification scores. 18 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 9 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Uk is over an inch QPF for the event for everyone. Close to 1.5 for the cities. Must be a temp problem because it's naso good until you get out into the burbs. 6-8"+ your way. realize nj2 said this earlier 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 hour ago, clskinsfan said: How much for Philly? 23 years later and you guys still won't let me live that one down. 3 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 if I had to choose, I would probably be more worried about a CMC type solution more than anything, but a lot of options are still on the table. not worth really freaking out over at this range 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: if I had to choose, I would probably be more worried about a CMC type solution more than anything, but a lot of options are still on the table. not worth really freaking out over at this range If Euro shows more of a GFS/ICON type look at 12z that ease some fears at all or you’re still worried about trends as we lead up to game time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 hour ago, BristowWx said: That’s so classic of a look…right out of the Kocin book… Yessir!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 12 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 23 years later and you guys still won't let me live that one down. It is with affection, though, unlike that how-much-for-Carbondale guy... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 hour ago, RDM said: Stepped away for a bit and came back to 120+ posts in less than an hour. Knew something was up, but the ICON looks drool-worthy. But the totals on the clown map showing more for DC than NW burbs is questionable. Great to have you back with us Bob Chill. Your like E.F. Hutton for those of us old enough to remember those commercials. Hope the outcome going forward bodes well for you sticking around. When E F Hutton talks... everyone listens!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 How much for Dale City lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 I know. 1 or 2 inch thump then mix issues, maybe full on liquid later. I take. (As modeled so far, I realize we are still about 6-7 days out.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 20 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: if I had to choose, I would probably be more worried about a CMC type solution more than anything, but a lot of options are still on the table. not worth really freaking out over at this range Lucky for us in the mid-Atlantic, our freakouts automatically regenerate so we can’t run out 1 1 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Lucky for us in the mid-Atlantic, our freakouts automatically regenerate so we can’t run out People freak out even when the models show a perfect solution so… lol 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 4 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: People freak out even when the models show a perfect solution so… lol Yeah some people were freaking out in the lead up to Feb 2010. It’s always going to happen somewhere. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Cmon folks. Euro play by play please. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, DCAlexandria said: Cmon folks. Euro play by play please. . Everyone waiting intently for the arrival of king euro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 52 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Must be a temp problem because it's naso good until you get out into the burbs. 6-8"+ your way. realize nj2 said this earlier Yeah it's a torch at the 850 and surface level, esp east of the Blue Ridge. Probably more amped than the GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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