Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming

[MillvilleWx]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I can't see the image  

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, MillvilleWx said:

I can't see the image  

Just visualized what you said - don't drop below 0c 850. 

[Weather Will]

Here is early am Sunday.  Surface temps are marginal.  850s look good.

[MillvilleWx]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

 

Spelling mistake on my part. I corrected the post.

Ahhh. Gotcha! Happens to the best of us. Could be worse. Imagine seeing it while submitting your discussion at work 

[Chris78]

3 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Note the trend of the cold HP strength up top on the gefs

That's really good to see. Gives us some wiggle room for the last minute bleed north that always seems to happen.

Who knows if it happens this time but history says it ussually does.

[clskinsfan]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

 

Spelling mistake on my part. I corrected the post.

I was looking at the surface anyways. Just ignore my stupidity.

[winter_warlock]

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

Here is early am Sunday.  Surface temps are marginal.  850s look good.

Thermal profile modeling will be worked out later as we get closer

[nj2va]

UKMET has a 990 due east of ORF but temps are iffy east of the Blue Ridge.  I haven’t tracked UKMET much to know how it does on thermals vs 500.  Looks like a true Miller A track.

[Solution Man]

3 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

I can't see the image  

The 0 line advances as far north as vicinity Ashland VA

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z GEFS probs

[clskinsfan]

Uk is over an inch QPF for the event for everyone. Close to 1.5 for the cities.

[Bob Chill]

CMC is simply amped. It wasn't the elephant OH transfer solution. If the euro shows the same heights (or better) at hrs 60-72 like the gfs/icon did, we can start not worrying about the most heartbreaking type of outcome. Didn't take much at all to knock that solution down today. Very subtle shift. Same with temps. I think too many people jumped the gun on a few wobbles warm past few days. I didn't like seeing it either but long range tracking shouldn't laser in so quickly. Being reactionary to ops beyond d4 can greatly reduce personal verification scores. 

[NorthArlington101]

9 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Uk is over an inch QPF for the event for everyone. Close to 1.5 for the cities.

Must be a temp problem because it's naso good until you get out into the burbs. 6-8"+ your way. 

realize nj2 said this earlier

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, clskinsfan said:

How much for Philly?

23 years later and you guys still won't let me live that one down.

[brooklynwx99]

if I had to choose, I would probably be more worried about a CMC type solution more than anything, but a lot of options are still on the table. not worth really freaking out over at this range

[Buddy1987]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

if I had to choose, I would probably be more worried about a CMC type solution more than anything, but a lot of options are still on the table. not worth really freaking out over at this range

If Euro shows more of a GFS/ICON type look at 12z that ease some fears at all or you’re still worried about trends as we lead up to game time?

[winter_warlock]

1 hour ago, BristowWx said:

That’s so classic of a look…right out of the Kocin book…

Yessir!!!

[North Balti Zen]

12 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

23 years later and you guys still won't let me live that one down.

It is with affection, though, unlike that how-much-for-Carbondale guy...

[winter_warlock]

1 hour ago, RDM said:

Stepped away for a bit and came back to 120+ posts in less than an hour.  Knew something was up, but the ICON looks drool-worthy.  But the totals on the clown map showing more for DC than NW burbs is questionable.  

Great to have you back with us Bob Chill.  Your like E.F. Hutton for those of us old enough to remember those commercials.  Hope the outcome going forward bodes well for you sticking around.  

When E F Hutton talks... everyone listens!! 

[Jebman]

How much for Dale City lol

[Jebman]

I know. 1 or 2 inch thump then mix issues, maybe full on liquid later. I take.

(As modeled so far, I realize we are still about 6-7 days out.)

[WxUSAF]

20 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

if I had to choose, I would probably be more worried about a CMC type solution more than anything, but a lot of options are still on the table. not worth really freaking out over at this range

Lucky for us in the mid-Atlantic, our freakouts automatically regenerate so we can’t run out

[TSSN+]

5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Lucky for us in the mid-Atlantic, our freakouts automatically regenerate so we can’t run out

People freak out even when the models show a perfect solution so… lol

[Fozz]

4 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

People freak out even when the models show a perfect solution so… lol

Yeah some people were freaking out in the lead up to Feb 2010. It’s always going to happen somewhere.

[DCAlexandria]

Cmon folks. Euro play by play please.


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[winter_warlock]

1 minute ago, DCAlexandria said:

Cmon folks. Euro play by play please.


.

Everyone waiting intently  for the arrival of king euro!

[Fozz]

52 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Must be a temp problem because it's naso good until you get out into the burbs. 6-8"+ your way. 

realize nj2 said this earlier

Yeah it's a torch at the 850 and surface level, esp east of the Blue Ridge. Probably more amped than the GGEM

[psuhoffman]

4 hours ago, Terpeast said:

We need it. 

D5-6 is when models take a hop SE, then trend north as lead times continue to shorten. So that’s one thing we got to watch out for. But we do have things going against the last minute north trend - stronger confluence and better cold air. And the 1/4 lead wave never trended north, it just continued to weaken and trend south from D7 to D3, and I don’t see it changing much from here on out. 

I've noted this over the last several years, since the major model upgrades a few years back...guidance seems to make BIG changes somewhere in the 140-180 hour range, that seems to be where they start to pick up on the general synoptic idea.  After that we obviously see changes but not like 500 mile shifts anymore usually.  The final 72 hours we still tend to see a slow bleed north.  Nothing close to back in the 90s and 2000s when storms would trend hundreds of miles north the final 3 days or anything, but a little bleeding.  We want to get a little wiggle room now for that IMO. 

Frankly I am amazed by the progress.  We are analyzing things at 140 hours that when I first started this you would be crazy to even look at until inside 72 hours.  

2 hours ago, baltosquid said:

FWIW the ICON is cooking very well for the 7th. But interesting to see it jump to being so much more amped relative to 00z - was previously very suppressed.

I've found, much like the NAM, that my forecasts are more accurate if I just ignore the ICON.  I am not saying its wrong, is pretty much in line with other guidance inside the goal posts right now, just saying it bounces all over the place and will lead you off on a tangent just as often as the rigght direction.

1 hour ago, clskinsfan said:

Oh baby!

"Oh baby, I wanna get wit ya, and take ya picture..."

1 hour ago, Ji said:

1-10 worries about supression with the current trends? What number we at?

Both rain and suppressed are still within the goalposts here.  But if you told me we failed and asked how I would still say 60% rain 40% suppressed.  We're still in the range where the ensembles have more weight and they look great.  But also, we are at the range where things are settling in and I've observed, as others have pointed out also, we do sometimes get a wobble south or colder around now but 75% of the time things still bleed north the last 2-3 days.  I like having a little wiggle room here. 

In my experience the time to worry, judging on how guidance has handled these types of systems the last 10 years, is if we start seeing runs show up that jack NC and southern VA.  That's not what we want, the north correction is not hundreds of miles anymore.  Even those end up trending north at the end...but not enough to save us.  Remember Dec 2018...it went south and was showing a NC/VA line jack...then it did trend north enough to save Fredericksburg and Charlottsville but not enough for us.  Having us on the northern fringes at day 5 is ok.  I will worry if it starts to show a true miss to our south across all guidance. 

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

I agree with Webb and @psuhoffman here that this thing is likely to inch northward in the last 72-96 hours.  

It really hurts to be on the same team with Webb on anything but I have to agree on this. 

[nj2va]

I like the look at H117.  Low down near Tallahassee with a 1029 H over Canada. Classic confluence look at h5 over NE.

[DCAlexandria]

I like the look at H117.  Low down near Tallahassee with a 1029 H over Canada. Classic confluence look at h5 over NE.

Euro?


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