nj2va Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 3 minutes ago, Ji said: Psu will not do a 3-6 under any circumstance in a Nino ‘30 years ago it would have been 6-12’ 2 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 2 minutes ago, Ji said: Psu will not do a 3-6 under any circumstance in a Nino If you were looking down from your mountain top chalet prone to deep winter conditions, would you settle? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Makes sense the GFS shows it being a bit more south. It pushes the cold down more and storms track along the that gradient. It’s gonna move around more as models figure out the confluence, cold press, NS vort etc. Just one run to file away as a possible outcome. It’s not the final one The 12z euro will be telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Imagine we still are in ensemble mode today and tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, BristowWx said: Imagine we still are in ensemble mode today and tomorrow. you should be in ensemble mode until like 48-72 hours out the signal for a potentially significant storm is still there. from like BOS to you guys. just use ensembles and keep your nerves lmao 9 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: you should be in ensemble mode until like 48-72 hours out the signal for a potentially significant storm is still there. from like BOS to you guys. just use ensembles and keep your nerves lmao about how many hours out would you recommend tracking geese migrations? 3 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 third level of blue unlocked 14 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: third level of blue unlocked Gorgeous! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 8 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: This thread is unreal. GFS looks great at this juncture and you would think it took the storm away reading the posts in here Agreed. People trying to parse where banding and the precip shield will be at this point is ridiculous. Just look at the storm track and you know everyone would get their share with the GFS depiction. It is a pretty quick mover which should bring down totals. But as depicted its a beaut. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Rain snow mix in Montclair currently 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 also the GEFS is fucking awesome 17 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 I have to say the models did an excellent job with today’s passage of the 1/1 system. They locked into it more than a week ago. Let’s hope this accuracy holds. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 12z GEFS is a thing of beauty. Everyone wins. 15 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 12Z for the win baby! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Looking like a very nice start of the year for alot of us!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 “Purple has entered the chat” 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 GEFS certainly lost the majority of the OH valley transfers. Straight Miller A from Florida to off the coast. Lovely. 17 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Wow! Mega signal for ensembles here 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 DCA and EZF stay below freezing at 850 on the 12z GEFS. 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 It may be semantics, but for a storm without "HECS" upside, I see a few HECS (my definition at least - zones of 18"+) in the GEFS. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 hour ago, Heisy said: Icon is a lot faster and more progressive with the main wave vs gfs etc. fwiw . You still considering a chase to Buffalo? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Note the trend of the cold HP strength up top on the gefs 14 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, Terpeast said: Note the trend of the cold HP strength up top on the gefs Slide that high west by 100 miles and were textbook. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: DCA and EZF don't stay below freezing at 850 on the 12z GEFS. Yeah. East of the Blue Ridge has some temp issues. Around an inch of QPF for the 24hr mean. Pretty juicy for the GEFS. Especially with it being a swift mover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: It may be semantics, but for a storm without "HECS" upside, I see a few HECS (my definition at least - zones of 18"+) in the GEFS. I believe I see some “tucks” in a few of them. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 14 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: you should be in ensemble mode until like 48-72 hours out the signal for a potentially significant storm is still there. from like BOS to you guys. just use ensembles and keep your nerves lmao I agree to 72 hours or so, but there also is a tendency for follow the leader with the ops and ensembles lately. Maybe someone like @high risk or @dtk can speak to studies of how nondispersive they seem to be in recent years. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: DCA and EZF don't stay below freezing at 850 on the 12z GEFS. You sure about that? The mean at 85H during storm height is -2 with 10th percentile at -4C and 90th at 1C. It was actually a nice showing imo. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 5 minutes ago, nj2va said: “Purple has entered the chat” That’s the ensemble too. That is a huge signal if I ever seen one. Just wow. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Note the trend of the cold HP strength up top on the gefs This was what I wanted to see. A better in-situ signature on the lead will work wonders for the initial precip, as well as maintaining a decent PBL profile during any storm height. There's some serious members too on that high. Saw some 1035mb or so readings when looking at the member plots. Great to see. 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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