BristowWx Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I fully expect to see this smeared all over FB and X within the coming days and layperson panic ensuing. already saw it in the google news feed...."Temps to plummet 60 degrees below normal to the gulf coast in January!" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 1 hour ago, Ji said: where is the cold air????????????????????????? On the otherside of the globe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 41 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Ops are really amplifying the long wave pattern. One problem with that is the pacific wins in a route. I’ve brought this up. Recently it takes weeks to establish cold and the first time the flow goes zonal off the pacific it gets obliterated in 24 hours! In fairness it is cold before and after that period you posted but that’s a disappointing development if it does evolve that way and would likely mean we’re waiting until after the pac progresses again towards mid January. By the time we are getting cold enough a temporary trough off the west coast immediately obliterated all the cold and we’re back to square one. Look I’m trying to be positive. But I’ve left it hanging out there that fail is an option and if so we have THE answer we’ve been beating around for years during this current pac cycle. Even if it goes down the gfs op way I suspect it still progresses to a good look after. But if this cycle of “flow off torched pacific obliterated cold in 2 seconds after a week of trying to slowly build a colder profile, rinse repeat” continues all winter at least we have the answer. This winter will be productive one way or another. Yeah, Bluewave will look like a genius. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 Just now, Daniel Boone said: Yeah, Bluewave will look like a genius. What did he say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GramaxRefugee Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 1 hour ago, ravensrule said: Only your spelling is worse. Ji is correct. The common is wrong. A popular (correct) example: I translate roughly: "Le Model de Weather Canadien" 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 The gefs really backed off the -nao this run. If you actually want to worry about something that would truly be a reason to worry that would be it. This equation won’t work without a -nao. The whole problem creation relies on it. +nao basic wide or east based ninos are a disaster! luckily it’s just one run and the GEPS doesn’t agree so for now just a blip. 12z eps will be telling. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 guys...we might have to shift our Focus on the Jan 4-5 threat--per the euro! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 Just now, Ji said: guys...we might have to shift our Focus on the Jan 4-5 threat--per the euro! if you like perfect track rainstorms 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 1 minute ago, Ji said: guys...we might have to shift our Focus on the Jan 4-5 threat--per the euro! looks like cold rain! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 this is getting absurd 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 Just now, Ji said: this is getting absurd maybe with better rates/timing we could do something with this one. It looks close but man it's painful verbatim. Owch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: maybe with better rates/timing we could do something with this one. It looks close but man it's painful verbatim. Owch if it cant snow on jan 5th with a low south of us and 850 temps below zero--like what are we really doing? I 5 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 2 minutes ago, Ji said: if it cant snow on jan 5th with a low south of us and 850 temps below zero--like what are we really doing? I Bombogenesis off OBX or bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 The 12z GEPS still likes the January 7th possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: maybe with better rates/timing we could do something with this one. It looks close but man it's painful verbatim. Owch It close enough to watch. This run we get fringed w light precip but it’s cold enough at the 925 level we’d snow if the precip was heavier 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 okay---as bad as todays runs are....this gives me great entertainment lol https://www.newsweek.com/us-may-headed-brutally-cold-january-1856152#:~:text=Many meteorologists previously predicted a,weather across the southwestern U.S 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The 12z GEPS still likes the January 7th possibility. 12z GEPS temps & precip for the 7th. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 Euro at 216Gfs at 216 1 7 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 Just now, Ji said: Euro at 216 Gfs at 216 I sense an imposter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: I sense an imposter Wonder what the temps for today looked like 216 hours ago on both models. Because it’s freaking warm out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 Euro has no Jan 7 storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 17 minutes ago, Ji said: okay---as bad as todays runs are....this gives me great entertainment lol https://www.newsweek.com/us-may-headed-brutally-cold-january-1856152#:~:text=Many meteorologists previously predicted a,weather across the southwestern U.S Now we know where JB is getting his "coldest since the pleistocene" call from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 8 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Wonder what the temps for today looked like 216 hours ago on both models. Because it’s freaking warm out. On my way to the gym I saw 2 convertibles with the top down. Car thermo read 60F. Anytime the sun pops out here now the temp soars to 60F. It's disgusting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 On my way to the gym I saw 2 convertibles with the top down. Car thermo read 60F. Anytime the sun pops out here now the temp soars to 60F. It's disgusting.I think the pattern change starts tomorrow 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 2 minutes ago, Ji said: I think the pattern change starts tomorrow Thank God. The low 50s are going to feel so good. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 8 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: On my way to the gym I saw 2 convertibles with the top down. Car thermo read 60F. Anytime the sun pops out here now the temp soars to 60F. It's disgusting. You are warmer than we are in Buda TX. High yesterday was 55, low 30. Ditto for the day before. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 33 minutes ago, Ji said: okay---as bad as todays runs are....this gives me great entertainment lol https://www.newsweek.com/us-may-headed-brutally-cold-january-1856152#:~:text=Many meteorologists previously predicted a,weather across the southwestern U.S Buda would be 27 degrees for a high. Please not Feb 2021 again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 31 minutes ago, Ji said: Euro at 216 Gfs at 216 The similarities are stunning 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 29 minutes ago, Ji said: Euro has no Jan 7 storm not a lot of EPS interest on Jan 4... jan 7 tbd. Way too warm at the surface for Jan 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 34 minutes ago, Ji said: Euro has no Jan 7 storm EPS has a signal but it's quite suppressed... it is cold enough, in theory. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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