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Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming


stormtracker
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1 minute ago, Paleocene said:

LP center is WAY further east versus 06z and 00z for the early morning hours sunday - great for us.

It's honestly further south than I'd like it.  This has total wiggle room to come north with that HP to the north and low dews.  I'd like to lock this one in.

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3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Love seeing northern stream energy phasing in AND losing the OH Valley low signature.  

image.thumb.png.08aeaedbae2916d5c41f80a5d0acd016.png

Interesting...it doesn't quite phase all the way unlike previous runs.  Close, but not quite.  

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1 minute ago, Shad said:

if your following trends, you may want this to stop pushing south and east....pretty substantial changes in last 3 model runs

Good general rule: If we are worried about both suppression AND over-amping, we're in a pretty good spot. 

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1 minute ago, Paleocene said:

dude the low is due east of the NC/VA border at 144 hours... a hundred miles further NW and we rain in the 95 corridor. This thing is gonna jump around a lot in the next two days

Was not saying this is the final solution but that is definitely suppressed. I don't even think the heavy snow bands reach 95 unless the GFS is just not correctly showing how expansive precip would be on the northwest side.

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Just now, WxUSAF said:

Interesting...it doesn't quite phase all the way unlike previous runs.  Close, but not quite.  

I was noticing that too. The energy is sort of left behind over the OH Valley and it allows the storm to not gain as much latitude. Could very well be noise in this type of setup. What I liked was the persistence of the high over the top and the energy cutting underneath. A little more phasing would've basically produced the ICON simulation. Not a terrible run and actually kind of where you would want to see it in the medium range. GEFS should be pretty

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