Chris78 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 8 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: 6z EPS Control was coming in hot Wow. And theres probably several more hours of snow to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Wow! Happy New Years to all. Nothing like a region wide (majority of the forum) 12-18” dumper being shown to kick things off with a bang. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 These colder and SE trends are exactly what I hoped to see. Still time though. Lead 1/4 sw just now coming onshore in SoCal, so maybe the newer runs have better data? and Happy New Year! 18 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 8 minutes ago, Terpeast said: These colder and SE trends are exactly what I hoped to see. Still time though. Lead 1/4 sw just now coming onshore in SoCal, so maybe the newer runs have better data? and Happy New Year! We deserve it….Happy New Year 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, Solution Man said: We deserve it….Happy New Year We need it. D5-6 is when models take a hop SE, then trend north as lead times continue to shorten. So that’s one thing we got to watch out for. But we do have things going against the last minute north trend - stronger confluence and better cold air. And the 1/4 lead wave never trended north, it just continued to weaken and trend south from D7 to D3, and I don’t see it changing much from here on out. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 13 minutes ago, Terpeast said: These colder and SE trends are exactly what I hoped to see. Still time though. Lead 1/4 sw just now coming onshore in SoCal, so maybe the newer runs have better data? and Happy New Year! Next 48 hours will be telling 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 30 minutes ago, Roger Ramjet said: Where are you at? I'm off of Harpers Ferry Road @ 725'. I’m just past Hamilton near Purcellville. 480’ elevation. In-Laws own it though. They live right at the top of the Ridge near Bear Chase Brewery at 1,405’ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 New Year. Same Scraff. Comes in here and stares at weather porn. What’s wrong with me!? That GFS clown map though… 2 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 2 minutes ago, Scraff said: New Year. Same Scraff. Comes in here and stares at weather porn. What’s wrong with me!? That GFS clown map though… We are all here for the same sick reason… 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 So GFS/Euro heading in the right direction, CMC still heading north but not drastically. Really good day so far... I'm very close to my personal "delay putting away Christmas decorations" line, let's go 12z! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 2 minutes ago, baltosquid said: So GFS/Euro heading in the right direction, CMC still heading north but not drastically. Really good day so far... I'm very close to my personal "delay putting away Christmas decorations" line, let's go 12z! Agree. Might leave them up. 3 inches looks like 10 inches if you squint. Either measurement gets the job done…10 inches is better of course 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 4 minutes ago, baltosquid said: So GFS/Euro heading in the right direction, CMC still heading north but not drastically. Really good day so far... I'm very close to my personal "delay putting away Christmas decorations" line, let's go 12z! Lol. Me too. It would've been Saturday until this potential showed up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 8 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Agree. Might leave them up. 3 inches looks like 10 inches if you squint. Either measurement gets the job done…10 inches is better of course Thank you Mrs. Bristow. 1 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just uploaded my mid range tracking app to my brain. No ads! Been waiting for this. Immabout burned out on long range guessing and broad concept stuff. 2 years of non stop practice can do that to you. If it hits south I'll be reporting from Smith Mtn. If it hits north I'll be reporting from Weston CT. If it hits west I'll be in the news headlines and it won't be pretty 3 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 11 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Agree. Might leave them up. 3 inches looks like 10 inches if you squint. Either measurement gets the job done…10 inches is better of course Sounds like we can finally do a bar meet and discuss over some local brews. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benjamn3 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 13 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Agree. Might leave them up. 3 inches looks like 10 inches if you squint. Either measurement gets the job done…10 inches is better of course Same. The tree may have to go cause it’s a tad try lol but, it’s looking like we should get some moisture, just these pesky temps. I’m west of the blue ridge in VA so I’m just hoping our CAD kicks ass and saves us from P-type issues. But that’s a wishcast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, Benjamn3 said: Same. The tree may have to go cause it’s a tad try lol but, it’s looking like we should get some moisture, just these pesky temps. I’m west of the blue ridge in VA so I’m just hoping our CAD kicks ass and saves us from P-type issues. But that’s a wishcast. Kick Ass CAD…I like that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Taking tree down today will ponder the jinx factor on the outside stuff for a bit 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Happy New Year! May the digital snow beatdowns continue for the next two months. If this storm ends up verifying many of us are going to be halfway to our forecasts with the entirety of prime winter climo left. Got to love Nino's man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 The differences in the 500 MB Height Anomaly North and East of us btw this mornings 6z run (where we get a nice snow storm) and yesterday's 12Z run (which shows a cutter) are significant. Notice how the low heights extend all the way in to the Hudson Bay on the 6z. My guess is this acts to strengthen the block, locking in HP to our north causing a tighter pressure gradient and keeping the upper level low from tracking too far north before spawning the surface coastal low. Quite different than the 12Z yesterday where you can see a upper level low pressure extending up in to Chicago (way too far north). 6Z today: 12Z yesterday: 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Been a while since we had a big storm opportunity in the mid range. All models have the storm and have been keyed in on it for a bit now. “The big ones get sniffed out early.” I feel good. Like we have hit 5 legs of a 10 leg parlay so far. We usually lose by leg 3 and then head back to the model bookies to place more bets to chase our losses. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 7 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Sounds like we can finally do a bar meet and discuss over some local brews. Yes we can. Still kinda need Eskimo Joe on board though…he seems a bit prickly on this. Maybe 12z will melt his ice a bit 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, BristowWx said: Yes we can. Still kinda need Eskimo Joe on board though…he seems a bit prickly on this. Maybe 12z will melt his ice a bit Concur 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 5 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Yes we can. Still kinda need Eskimo Joe on board though…he seems a bit prickly on this. Maybe 12z will melt his ice a bit We're about a week out and I'm still largely suspicious that we even meet climo this winter. If things are holding serve on 12z Friday, then maybe we're onto something. I hope I'm wrong and have to eat crow. 2 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benjamn3 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 14 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Kick Ass CAD…I like that Sounds like a fuckin franchise for us Appalachian kids. My neck of the woods I have to watch this sub and the SE one. I will say this group has some amazing forecasters. I’m really enjoying reading and learning. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Yes we can. Still kinda need Eskimo Joe on board though…he seems a bit prickly on this. Maybe 12z will melt his ice a bitWe don’t want 12z to melt anything! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 10 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: We're about a week out and I'm still largely suspicious that we even meet climo this winter. If things are holding serve on 12z Friday, then maybe we're onto something. I hope I'm wrong and have to eat crow. I mean ya of course it’s a week out, hard to believe yet. If all signals still a go by Wednesday night/Thursday then we are talking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, TSSN+ said: I mean ya of course it’s a week out, hard to believe yet. If all signals still a go by Wednesday night/Thursday then we are talking. Splitting hairs here but it’s not a week out. Euro gets precip in Saturday evening. Yes, keep expectations in check and go with the ensembles at this range. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 I mean we still got all today to go to Saturday Eve so that’s about 6 days. Close enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Is suppression the bigger risk now? Or is it possible the models flip flop again and retreat the cold air more like 48 hours ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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