Heisy Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Euro might end up being farthest S of the 00z suite . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Oh boySent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Didn’t expect this at all, this is where I’d prefer we have it at this range. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Antecedent airmass is COLDER!!!It's like how you drew it upSent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Oh boySent from my SM-A515U using TapatalkWoof . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Didn’t expect this at all, this is where I’d prefer we have it at this range.Is it a miss lol?Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Is it a miss lol?Sent from my SM-A515U using TapatalkNo it is destroying C VA . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, Ji said: Is it a miss lol? Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Watch this thing get suppressed after all the shenanigans today about it being too amped. That would be the mid-atl style 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 What's up with that 1005 low in Texas. Seems way too close Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Thru 156 . 10 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 What's up with that 1005 low in Texas. Seems way too close Sent from my SM-A515U using TapatalkYeah it’s doing weird things with the entire flow behind the main wave . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 11 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 What's up with that 1005 low in Texas. Seems way too close Sent from my SM-A515U using TapatalkThat wave would actually set the table for the 10th lol, but not worried about that obv . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Wheres jaws when you need it! @stormtrackerhas been lacking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 High stronger and air colder !! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 At this time last night the euro was already too amped with hardly any cold Sent from my SM-A515U using TapatalkHuge shifts in our direction today, no doubt about it. This is why you never give up too early and why you don’t live and die by digital blue on long range OP runs. If you look back 14 or so days, ensembles did a fantastic job sniffing out the upper air pattern change Not sure how this storm will ultimately play, but damn does it feel good to track something tangible again and to not be in a shitty niña / PAC pattern while doing so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 . 15 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Maybe we needed to have more faith in the mjo 2-3 phase. I mentioned out of stupid blind luck that models should trend colder based on our phase Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 . 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Big difference is with the main shortwave. Way less NS interaction so not as amped. Timing of the waves is much different this run. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 .Dang broSent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 what a suite 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 My first time staying up for Dr no this year was somewhat fruitfulSent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 what a suiteClassic nino dmv bullseyeSent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 .Tick.. tick.. BOOMWe get cold enough between 850s & the surface… which allows us to survive the SW’s approach. The rest is history.Anyone with more knowledge than myself able to explain the mechanism that leads to the better cold push / confluence? The high up north is stronger yes, but it also seems to be anchored in place much better. Is this a result of the 50/50? Thanks in advance. PS - When was the last time we had the GFS CMC and Euro all show warning level snowfall for majority of the CWA? Fuggin awesome. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Is suppression worries back on the table?Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 30 minutes ago, Ji said: It's like how you drew it up Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk 30 minutes ago, Heisy said: Didn’t expect this at all, this is where I’d prefer we have it at this range . Across all guidance there was in increase in the confluence ahead of the wave and so the thermals were significantly colder. The gfs didn’t trend as far south as the euro because it actually trended stronger and further NW initially with the SW and primary low but then the redevelopment gets forced further SE because of the colder profile. Euro was colder and a slightly less amplified SW so it made the biggest jump south. But the only thing I’m taking from this rum is the thermals. If tonight’s runs are correct wrt the colder profile over the top we have much more wiggle room and a significantly easier path to a victory here. 12 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Across all guidance there was in increase in the confidence ahead of the wave and so the thermals were significantly colder. The gfs didn’t trend as far south as the euro because it actually trended stronger and further NW initially with the SW and primary low but then the redevelopment gets forced further SE because of the colder profile. Euro was colder and a slightly less amplified SW so it made the biggest jump south. But the only thing I’m taking from this rum is the thermals. If tonight’s runs are correct wrt the colder profile over the top we have much more wiggle room and a significantly easier path to a victory here. Let’s reel ‘er in . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Is suppression worries back on the table?Sent from my SM-A515U using TapatalkIF we were to fail, I don’t believe we’d fail due to suppression. It’s more likely that we’d fail due to models overdoing confluence ahead of the system. Let’s not go down that path unless necessary please. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 While the exact output on the clown maps should be taken with the smallest grain of salt at this range (Sorry Ji), it is pretty impressive how similar they looked on the 00z GFS CMC EC. Nearly identical with a few minor tweaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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