CAPE Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Da fuck? I am all about dat shit. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 GEFS is made up of individually perturbed members, not including the op which is run at a higher resolution.Google and cut and paste are wonderful tools. It be nice if they included the op in the same chart for reference Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Da fuck? I am all about dat shit.The best a mean has looked like at 6 days since… Jan 2016? 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Da fuck? I am all about dat shit.How many times has the Canadian been too snowy since you started tracking Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 happy new year. GFS improved in the most important aspect. It’s actually slightly more amplified and further NW with the SLP on approach But the result is better because the antecedent airmass is colder! If this continues to trend colder over the top we won’t have to obsess over the exact amplitude of the SW or the exact track of the primary to the mile. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, Ji said: Google and cut and paste are wonderful tools. It be nice if they included the op in the same chart for reference Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk This isn't rocket science lol. You run a weather FB page and don't know this basic stuff? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: happy new year. GFS improved in the most important aspect. It’s actually slightly more amplified and further NW with the SLP on approach But the result is better because the antecedent airmass is colder! If this continues to trend colder over the top we won’t have to obsess over the exact amplitude of the SW or the exact track of the primary to the mile. NA confluence FTW. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 4 minutes ago, Ji said: How many times has the Canadian been too snowy since you started tracking Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk LOL HNY Ji. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Still a lot of non hits.We’re 7 days out. How often do all members show hits a week out? Come on man.That was also an ensemble mean, not a clown map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, jayyy said: We’re 7 days out dude. How often do all members show hits a week out? Come on man. . Only KUs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 8 minutes ago, Ji said: How many times has the Canadian been too snowy since you started tracking Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk 4 times. 3 times in the late 80s. Once sometime after 94 maybe 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 LOL HNY Ji.You too!Check out the euro from Dec 23 for January 7th . Somehow identified the southern stream and 50 50 lowSent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 2 minutes ago, Ji said: You too! Check out the euro from Dec 23 for January 7th . Somehow identified the southern stream and 50 50 low Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk The EPS has been on a heater for a while. If you include the weekly extension it nailed this current pattern almost perfectly from like 3 weeks out. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 The EPS has been on a heater for a while. If you include the weekly extension it nailed this current pattern almost perfectly from like 3 weeks out. Feels like models do better in ninos. Blocking...southern stream dominate...etc02-03 made jb rich. He nailed everything Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 20 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: You wanna post the individuals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 6 minutes ago, Ji said: Feels like models do better in ninos. Blocking...southern stream dominate...etc Jb nailed everything 02-03 made jb rich. He nailed everything Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk I’ve noticed that also. You’re right about JB and 2003. He lived off the cred he got from that winter for years. Funny but ya know who else nailed 2003, Joe D when he was Dr Dewpoint at Intellicast. Now they teamed up on WxBell lol. Do you think JB actually forecasted better back then or was it simply he always predicts cold and snow and that’s the one winter where every time a cow farted there was a snowstorm or arctic outbreak? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Think we see improvements on 00z euro based on the N/S look at 87 hours vs older runs. Main wave also a touch faster . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 I’ve noticed that also. You’re right about JB and 2003. He lived off the cred he got from that winter for years. Funny but ya know who else nailed 2003, Joe D when he was Dr Dewpoint at Intellicast. Now they teamed up on WxBell lol. Do you think JB actually forecasted better back then or was it simply he always predicts cold and snow and that’s the one winter where every time a cow farted there was a snowstorm or arctic outbreak? I think the pd storm was the easiest storm to forecast in long range. It was on the models forever and that was back in the Stone ageI remember specifically Howard and his buddy Keith calling for rain from that storm while we were looking at a 1049 high lolMatt and megawatt were all over that storm too. Don't know if you remember them. They both worked for constellation energy and went to psu lolSent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 I’ve noticed that also. You’re right about JB and 2003. He lived off the cred he got from that winter for years. Funny but ya know who else nailed 2003, Joe D when he was Dr Dewpoint at Intellicast. Now they teamed up on WxBell lol. Do you think JB actually forecasted better back then or was it simply he always predicts cold and snow and that’s the one winter where every time a cow farted there was a snowstorm or arctic outbreak? So your saying jb is good every 7 years Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 You too!Check out the euro from Dec 23 for January 7th . Somehow identified the southern stream and 50 50 lowSent from my SM-A515U using TapatalkMaybe I’m off-base here, but don’t certain patterns / ENSO states play into the strengths / weaknesses of each model? Believe I read somewhere a while back that the EC has a noticeably higher verification score in Niños than Niñas. Back when we seemed to get niños more often, I feel like the EC was pretty unstoppable in the 10-14 day range. I know some exclusively blame upgrades or what have you, but perhaps that’s not the entire story?Anyway.. going to be an awesome next week of tracking this with you crazy weenies. Big question mark here is that first shortwave… what does it do and how does it impact our bigger threat? The strength / location of that 50/50 is going to be crucial in keeping our High in a favorable spot leading in. Should know a whole lot more by 00z wed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 hour ago, Ji said: Still a lot of non hits. 8 out of 30 are 7”+ events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Think we see improvements on 00z euro based on the N/S look at 87 hours vs older runs. Main wave also a touch faster .Euro does look look colder. Well seeSent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 If euro isn’t much farther S versus 12z I’ll be shocked . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Confluence wave running across Maine, oh boy . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 HP is jacked up . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 HP is jacked up .Tick… tick… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Tick… tick…At this time last night the euro was already too amped with hardly any cold Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Antecedent airmass is COLDER!!! 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 LP tracking through the Carolinas at 144... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 18 minutes ago, Ji said: Feels like models do better in ninos. Blocking...southern stream dominate...etc 02-03 made jb rich. He nailed everything Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Which year did he come visit us? It was in Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now