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Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming


stormtracker
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GEFS is made up of individually perturbed members, not including the op which is run at a higher resolution.
Google and cut and paste are wonderful tools. It be nice if they included the op in the same chart for reference

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happy new year. 

GFS improved in the most important aspect.


It’s actually slightly more amplified and further NW with the SLP on approach 

IMG_0701.thumb.gif.4f68bb3ae8358234ac620646fef9496a.gif
But the result is better because the antecedent airmass is colder! 
IMG_0697.thumb.gif.e02ab0dfb68039af9f4dec73bcfc2183.gif

If this continues to trend colder over the top we won’t have to obsess over the exact amplitude of the SW or the exact track of the primary to the mile.  

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Just now, Ji said:

Google and cut and paste are wonderful tools. It be nice if they included the op in the same chart for reference

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 This isn't rocket science lol. You run a weather FB page and don't know this basic stuff?

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

happy new year. 

GFS improved in the most important aspect.


It’s actually slightly more amplified and further NW with the SLP on approach 

IMG_0701.thumb.gif.4f68bb3ae8358234ac620646fef9496a.gif
But the result is better because the antecedent airmass is colder! 
IMG_0697.thumb.gif.e02ab0dfb68039af9f4dec73bcfc2183.gif

If this continues to trend colder over the top we won’t have to obsess over the exact amplitude of the SW or the exact track of the primary to the mile.  

NA confluence FTW.

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8 minutes ago, Ji said:

How many times has the Canadian been too snowy since you started tracking

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4 times.  3 times in the late 80s.  Once sometime after 94 maybe

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2 minutes ago, Ji said:

You too!

Check out the euro from Dec 23 for January 7th . Somehow identified the southern stream and 50 50 low

5501669a9bb3e8de971d724b28580be7.jpg

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The EPS has been on a heater for a while. If you include the weekly extension it nailed this current pattern almost perfectly from like 3 weeks out. 

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The EPS has been on a heater for a while. If you include the weekly extension it nailed this current pattern almost perfectly from like 3 weeks out. 
Feels like models do better in ninos. Blocking...southern stream dominate...etc

02-03 made jb rich. He nailed everything

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6 minutes ago, Ji said:

Feels like models do better in ninos. Blocking...southern stream dominate...etc

Jb nailed everything 02-03 made jb rich. He nailed everything

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I’ve noticed that also.  You’re right about JB and 2003. He lived off the cred he got from that winter for years. Funny but ya know who else nailed 2003, Joe D when he was Dr Dewpoint at Intellicast. Now they teamed up on WxBell lol.   Do you think JB actually forecasted better back then or was it simply he always predicts cold and snow and that’s the one winter where every time a cow farted there was a snowstorm or arctic outbreak?  

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I’ve noticed that also.  You’re right about JB and 2003. He lived off the cred he got from that winter for years. Funny but ya know who else nailed 2003, Joe D when he was Dr Dewpoint at Intellicast. Now they teamed up on WxBell lol.   Do you think JB actually forecasted better back then or was it simply he always predicts cold and snow and that’s the one winter where every time a cow farted there was a snowstorm or arctic outbreak?  
I think the pd storm was the easiest storm to forecast in long range. It was on the models forever and that was back in the Stone age

I remember specifically Howard and his buddy Keith calling for rain from that storm while we were looking at a 1049 high lol

Matt and megawatt were all over that storm too. Don't know if you remember them. They both worked for constellation energy and went to psu lol

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I’ve noticed that also.  You’re right about JB and 2003. He lived off the cred he got from that winter for years. Funny but ya know who else nailed 2003, Joe D when he was Dr Dewpoint at Intellicast. Now they teamed up on WxBell lol.   Do you think JB actually forecasted better back then or was it simply he always predicts cold and snow and that’s the one winter where every time a cow farted there was a snowstorm or arctic outbreak?  
So your saying jb is good every 7 years

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You too!

Check out the euro from Dec 23 for January 7th . Somehow identified the southern stream and 50 50 low

5501669a9bb3e8de971d724b28580be7.jpg

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Maybe I’m off-base here, but don’t certain patterns / ENSO states play into the strengths / weaknesses of each model? Believe I read somewhere a while back that the EC has a noticeably higher verification score in Niños than Niñas. Back when we seemed to get niños more often, I feel like the EC was pretty unstoppable in the 10-14 day range. I know some exclusively blame upgrades or what have you, but perhaps that’s not the entire story?

Anyway.. going to be an awesome next week of tracking this with you crazy weenies. Big question mark here is that first shortwave… what does it do and how does it impact our bigger threat? The strength / location of that 50/50 is going to be crucial in keeping our High in a favorable spot leading in. Should know a whole lot more by 00z wed
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Think we see improvements on 00z euro based on the N/S look at 87 hours vs older runs. Main wave also a touch faster


.
Euro does look look colder. Well see

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18 minutes ago, Ji said:

Feels like models do better in ninos. Blocking...southern stream dominate...etc

02-03 made jb rich. He nailed everything

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Which year did he come visit us? It was in Philly. 

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