Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming

[Ji]

Just now, Ji said:

where is the cold air?????????????????????????

the canadien is worse

[anotherman]

where is the cold air?????????????????????????

On the other side of the globe.

[Daniel Boone]

2 hours ago, Terpeast said:

IAD got 10” with that Jan 1964 storm

Mood in this thread seems a little better now. I was afraid to open it this morning!

Sounds like me sometimes, lol. 

[psuhoffman]

From the 10,000ft view the pattern has evolved exactly as was hinted from several weeks ago.  This is the now day 3-10 mean 

This was the look on the extended guidance from a month out. Absolutely amazing win for the long range guidance. Doesn’t mean it will always be this accurate but since some like to bash the guidance for every fail (and sometimes when it didn’t fail but they are just mad there’s no snow on their lawn) it’s worth noting when it has a win. 
 

Now as we turn to specific threats that are coming into range IMO the main issue seems to be our snow probabilities are somewhat muted by temps compared to what you might expect given that look.  We knew the transition week from Xmas to New Years would be a long shot. But even into the first week of January it’s taking a long time to establish enough cold and even once we do get colder the depth of the airmass is still marginal.  
 

This doesn’t mean we won’t snow. I concur with @CAPE , I like our chances with the wave around the 7th the best.  But we need more to go perfectly wrt track and NS interaction than we would with a colder profile. What I mean by “depth” is can the airmass resist a southerly flow ahead of a wave. Can it withstand strong WAA. Can a low track west of us and still produce a front end thump.  A colder airmass with more depth widens our margin for error wrt track. You get a more expensive frozen precipitation zone with each storm. 
 

This is why imo the ground truth on most runs isn’t as impressive as what you might expect with that h5 look. The good news is I think this general pattern will have legs. There will be fluctuations. We might get a temporary SE ridge around the 10-12th or so. But as this general long wave configuration persists we will slowly build a colder regime.  It very well could snow the first week or two of January. But I still feel our best chances will come from Jan 20 into Feb. 

[Daniel Boone]

7 minutes ago, Ji said:

the canadien is worse

Could be Strat goings on messing with the Models. 

[Solution Man]

Just can’t get right

 

[SnowenOutThere]

14 minutes ago, Ji said:

where is the cold air?????????????????????????

 

13 minutes ago, Ji said:

the canadien is worse

The CFS stole it all

[MillvilleWx]

11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

From the 10,000ft view the pattern has evolved exactly as was hinted from several weeks ago.  This is the now day 3-10 mean 

This was the look on the extended guidance from a month out. Absolutely amazing win for the long range guidance. Doesn’t mean it will always be this accurate but since some like to bash the guidance for every fail (and sometimes when it didn’t fail but they are just mad there’s no snow on their lawn) it’s worth noting when it has a win. 
 

Now as we turn to specific threats that are coming into range IMO the main issue seems to be our snow probabilities are somewhat muted by temps compared to what you might expect given that look.  We knew the transition week from Xmas to New Years would be a long shot. But even into the first week of January it’s taking a long time to establish enough cold and even once we do get colder the depth of the airmass is still marginal.  
 

This doesn’t mean we won’t snow. I concur with @CAPE , I like our chances with the wave around the 7th the best.  But we need more to go perfectly wrt track and NS interaction than we would with a colder profile. What I mean by “depth” is can the airmass resist a southerly flow ahead of a wave. Can it withstand strong WAA. Can a low track west of us and still produce a front end thump.  A colder airmass with more depth widens our margin for error wrt track. You get a more expensive frozen precipitation zone with each storm. 
 

This is why imo the ground truth on most runs isn’t as impressive as what you might expect with that h5 look. The good news is I think this general pattern will have legs. There will be fluctuations. We might get a temporary SE ridge around the 10-12th or so. But as this general long wave configuration persists we will slowly build a colder regime.  It very well could snow the first week or two of January. But I still feel our best chances will come from Jan 20 into Feb. 

Great post. I mentioned the other day that winter was really just getting started and the best time is still a month away. When you have all the cold on one side of the pole and the other side is above normal and limited snow/ice cover, need some time for the airmasses to do away with the warmth and establish itself better. I like end of Jan through Feb as the best time with March a question mark, but by no means out of it that month either. 

I know some here want snow on the ground that will last a long time, but truth of the matter is...unless we get a huge snow, likely not going to be the case this year. This is typical around here anyway, so I'm not exactly upset. I just want to see snow fall and accumulate. If you were looking for a long winter feel, very likely not happening this year. 

[Ji]

sorry PSU--this is not a long range model win. No model had this. This looks like December lol

[DarkSharkWX]

Just now, Ji said:

sorry PSU--this is not a long range model win. No model had this

op gfs tax

[SnowenOutThere]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

sorry PSU--this is not a long range model win. No model had this

“This is not a long range model win” He types as he sends a long range model output …

[WVclimo]

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Positive vibes from (checks notes) Eric Webb?

This is also from Eric Webb.  A helpful reminder for the impatient among us.

[ravensrule]

43 minutes ago, Ji said:

the canadien is worse

Only your spelling is worse. 

[Buddy1987]

38 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Just can’t get right

 

Unreal.. couldn’t have a better track. Gets kinda hard to remain positive with the way the pattern has unfolded last couple years. Going to hang onto hope with the pros in here honking for colder weather developing. 

[TSSN+]

384 fantasy snow wooo lol 

[Heisy]

Gonna be a big cold dump out west around 8-10. Been on GFS and other models multiple runs now. I think we’re realistically pushing till mid month+ for a snow threat.


.

[Ji]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

384 fantasy snow wooo lol 

thats rain 

[dallen7908]

Thanks for the plot.  Thoughts: 1) I wonder where he got the snow data for 1876-1895 or so.  2) February 8th for the mid-point - a few days later than I expected but certainly in line with memory.  3) The changes in slope are interesting do they just fall out of the data or did he do some piece-wise fitting? 4) The snowless gaps in late December and mid-January are a bit sad.  5) It looks like prime time is January 20th - February 20th - no surprise there! 6) I wonder how many winters are classified as moderate-to-strong El Niño winters and how different the plot would be during other years.  Would the peak be a week earlier? 

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said:

Unreal.. couldn’t have a better track. Gets kinda hard to remain positive with the way the pattern has unfolded last couple years. Going to hang onto hope with the pros in here honking for colder weather developing. 

I hear ya brother, let’s remain positive and listen to the red taggers, and enjoy our online family. Happy New Year friends

[Blizzard of 93]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

thats rain 

 

[WVclimo]

9 minutes ago, dallen7908 said:

Thanks for the plot.  Thoughts: 1) I wonder where he got the snow data for 1876-1895 or so.  2) February 8th for the mid-point - a few days later than I expected but certainly in line with memory.  3) The changes in slope are interesting do they just fall out of the data or did he do some piece-wise fitting? 4) The snowless gaps in late December and mid-January are a bit sad.  5) It looks like prime time is January 20th - February 20th - no surprise there! 6) I wonder how many winters are classified as moderate-to-strong El Niño winters and how different the plot would be during other years.  Would the peak be a week earlier? 

All good points/ questions.  He also produced this, if it helps explain the graph lol.

 

[nj2va]

3 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

All good points/ questions.  He also produced this, if it helps explain the graph lol.

 

That’s actually a really cool graphic, thanks for sharing. 

[87storms]

This is also from Eric Webb.  A helpful reminder for the impatient among us.

If you’re big game hunting, then yes, winter is half over on Feb 8, but I’d like to see a cdf for mean snow. The biggest issue so far this year isn’t the lack of snow here, but what seems like most of NA. I’m not even tracking snow here anymore…I want to see legitimate snowstorms showing up for areas to the nw.

[psuhoffman]

42 minutes ago, Ji said:

sorry PSU--this is not a long range model win. No model had this. This looks like December lol

Ops are really amplifying the long wave pattern. One problem with that is the pacific wins in a route. I’ve brought this up. Recently it takes weeks to establish cold and the first time the flow goes zonal off the pacific it gets obliterated in 24 hours!  
 

In fairness it is cold before and after that period you posted but that’s a disappointing development if it does evolve that way and would likely mean we’re waiting until after the pac progresses again towards mid January.  By the time we are getting cold enough a temporary trough off the west coast immediately obliterated all the cold and we’re back to square one. 
 

Look I’m trying to be positive. But I’ve left it hanging out there that fail is an option and if so we have THE answer we’ve been beating around for years during this current pac cycle.  Even if it goes down the gfs op way I suspect it still progresses to a good look after. But if this cycle of “flow off torched pacific obliterated cold in 2 seconds after a week of trying to slowly build a colder profile, rinse repeat” continues all winter at least we have the answer. This winter will be productive one way or another. 

[BristowWx]

6 minutes ago, nj2va said:

That’s actually a really cool graphic, thanks for sharing. 

certainly defines our window for winter quite well.   hard start time and finish time.  wow.  

[Allsnow]

24 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Gonna be a big cold dump out west around 8-10. Been on GFS and other models multiple runs now. I think we’re realistically pushing till mid month+ for a snow threat.


.

Agreed. I had hope for the first two weeks of the months but the cold Is just not established yet…

I hope this is the start of the changes we need for the second half of January 

[WVclimo]

2 minutes ago, 87storms said:

If you’re big game hunting, then yes, winter is half over on Feb 8, but I’d like to see a cdf for mean snow. The biggest issue so far this year isn’t the lack of snow here, but what seems like most of NA. I’m not even tracking snow here anymore…I want to see legitimate snowstorms showing up for areas to the nw.

I’m with you in wanting to see snow showing up more extensively in the CONUS.  
But from memory, most of our Nino snows come in big dumps, often without much in between.  That’s been my expectation for this season ever since this ENSO+ took off.

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Guys stop panicking CFS just had its best run of the season! Seriously if anyone needs their digital snowfall/cold I'd highly recommend checking this run out, instead of crapping up the thread with negativity *cough* Ji. Its got a snowstorm with temps in the single digits and qdf of .7 then lows in the negative teens across the area.

I fully expect to see this smeared all over FB and X within the coming days and layperson panic ensuing.

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

where is the cold air?????????????????????????

Not sure....but I think most here know where the hot air is.

[psuhoffman]

@Ji the temporary warmup after the threat around the 7th was already known. It’s been on guidance for a while. A week ago I said we probably gave a relax after the first week of Jan then things get even better during the next reload of the pattern. 
 

What’s disappointing was the 12z gefs really pulled back on the potential for the 7th. The wave gets washed out by most members on the 12z run. It’s cold enough. Just suppressed. If so that means we’re waiting for later in January which I’ve suspected for a while and why I haven’t been getting too into the analysis of these early Jan “threats”. My gut just felt we might have to wait but I felt saying that might get stuff thrown at me.  But the best example of the situation we’re in now in 2016 wrt a torched N America. And it took weeks and a couple cycles of the pattern to get cold enough to snow. You could even argue (I would) that the best long wave pattern look was before the blizzard but the thermals over the conus just weren’t cold enough to support a snow here yet.  
 

Im not saying we only get one storm. And I’m on the record saying we got a bit unlucky not to get more snow that winter. I’m simply comparing how long it took to recover from a similar situation then to now.