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Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming


stormtracker
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Latest disco from sterling!!!! Good read....

 

As we move into the weekend, attention will turn to a storm system
approaching from the south and west. By Friday night, this system
will be located over the southern Plains. The initially closed upper
low is modeled to transition into more of an open wave and
potentially take on a negative tilt as it tracks east-northeastward
toward our area. With the system taking on a negative tilt, there
could be a corresponding strong area of low pressure at the surface,
with access to ample moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. As one would
expect seven days out, there is still considerable spread with
respect to the track of this system, but most solutions cluster
somewhere between a track into the eastern Ohio Valley and along the
coast just off to our south and east. Probabilities for substantial
QPF continue to increase. If the storm were to take a favorable
track off to our south and east, some or all of this could occur as
snow across portions of the area. Synoptically speaking, most
solutions don`t have a strong area of high pressure off to the
northeast, which could work against a snow solution, but the airmass
in place ahead of the system is fairly cold/dry, which could create
a decent amount of cold air in-situ once precipitated into. We`ll
continue to monitor this system over the upcoming week, as it has
the potential to be the first substantial winter storm of the season
(and really last two seasons) to the east of the mountains
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9 minutes ago, GEOS5ftw said:

Those 1994 ice storms were what got me into weather which eventually became my career! I do remember 93 but it was 94 that I got into watching TWC all the time.

Two distinct memories from that year (all these are from near IAD) - the MLK day ice storm which started out as snow in the morning, then progressed to sleet and freezing rain during the day. Just when the temp hit 32 the arctic front came through and froze everything solid...the water that had ponded in my backyard literally become a skating rink (I had taken ice skating lessons a couple years earlier, and jammed my feet, which had grown a good deal in those 2 years, into my skates just so I could say I skated in my yard!). This week had a few sub-zero low and single digit highs, and there was a clipper that came through later in the week that dropped 1-2 inches of some of the lightest, fluffiest snow I have ever seen.

Mid-February there was a huge sleet storm - I want to say that the piles of sleet that bounced off the roof created 2 foot "drifts" around the house but the accumulation elsewhere was more like 4-6 inches. 

Then we had 2 inland runner storms, one in early january and another in early march, which were 3-6 inch type deals with wet snow, although I remember hearing that north and west did much better in these.

Yea, I remember that year pretty well.  There hasn't been anything close to the severity of those ice storms since and I also remember that extremely high ratio 2-4" deal we had.  Dews were very low for that event.  The sleet parade was the result of a low forming along a stalled out frontal boundary near the gulf coast.  It snowed for like 5 minutes and the rest was several inches of pure sleet.  LaGuardia ended up with close to a foot of snow lol, if I recall correctly (from news reports).  That was an equally frustrating and interesting storm.

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