Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming

[Stormchaserchuck1]

'96 was my favorite but I'm young. I like the colder dry snows and legit blizzard conditions. I feel like they should happen more often. It's important to remember that since 1998, the -PNA has been the pattern as much as 62/38, so it's something cyclical, and not like GW-driven. We've had a La Nina base state almost 2:1.  I personally think right now, in this little bit of time, +NAO and +PNA is our best potential pattern for snowfall, The W->E (anomaly) nature of the pattern is moreso than N->S, and +nao's are wetter. 

[clskinsfan]

1 minute ago, notvirga! said:

It may well have been 40 inches or close to it. I lived in the city of Winchester and it was the closest I’ve seen to three feet and that’s snow depth not snowfall accumulation. 

And I am NW of town at elevation. It was insanity. 

[CAPE]

This is the one that is sort of a sleeper in the all time greats, at least over here. An overperformer even though the forecast was for a major snowstorm. Ended up with 16"+ and lots of drifting. Pure powder storm.

[Chris78]

38 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

While you dry slotted we deformed for hours and hours on end. 

Yep  along 81 was shallacked for hours.

I believe I had over 40" at the M/D just east of 81.

[notvirga!]

2 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Feb 83 was the most intense storm in this area.  Ever.  Nothing comes close.  96 and 2016 (in the Northern part of the area) rival the total accumulations, but 83 did it in basically 14 hours.  32" measured in Warren County.  In 14 hours!  At the height, rates were 4 - 5 inches per hour with thundersnow.  Nothing has come close to that intensity since.

I remember reading an article I think in the Winchester star about it a few years back. Apparently abandoned vehicles everywhere because the snow fell so hard and fast.

[BlizzardNole]

26 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

February '79 was very memorable to me for several reasons:  one it's the first big storm that I remember where the forecast the night before was calling for nothing and we received over 2 feet;  about 11 years old looked out the window that am from my second story window screaming and waking my parents and two younger brothers up because I thought the car had been stolen ( it was buried under a snow drift!!!);  I had the whole week off from school, stuff like that does not happen anymore.

Ah 1979!  I was in northern Calvert and it's my best ever - even beating all my MontCo events (1996, 2003, 2010 and 2016).  It was like a hurricane of snow with easily 30 inches with 6-foot drifts.  There was a period where we could not see the woods 50 feet behind the house and got 6" in one hour.  Wind gusts 60-plus.  I was there for 1983 - dry slot got us.  Missed 1987 in FL.  1993 was a gut punch with 6" then driving rain

[psuhoffman]

42 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Good post.. It's just too warm. Because the source is in the N. Pacific ocean, the odds of a favorable trend to the end are pretty low (the region doesn't fluctuate as much). Add to the fact that this Pacific region has hooked up with a SE ridge more than normal over the past few Winters (despite -NAO) and you have a real "problem". Jan correlation is also +53%.  This may end up raining all the way to State College. 

In the end of the 18z GEFS we have that strong -PNA look, and it's a pretty good anomaly projection for 15-16 days away on the mean.. linking with now a trough over the NW and it's going to take at least a little time to move away from that pattern. It's not going to snow in that pattern I think. My analogs showed that when we have a dominant PNA that changes, we hang warm for a few days after. I've said Jan 20th before something favorable develops, but it could be later. 

The gefs looks like hot garbage at the end. You are right if the gefs is correct after this threat hit or miss were likely punting until Feb. 

But do you belief the gefs over the geps and eps both of which show a very different look day 15-16 with heights already lowering west of AK and the pattern over N America better to begin with. Why choose the statistically worse guidance when it’s alone?  Persistence?  

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, CAPE said:

This is the one that is sort of a sleeper in the all time greats, at least over here. An overperformer even though the forecast was for a major snowstorm. Ended up with 16"+ and lots of drifting. Pure powder storm.

Fringed 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

39 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

But do you belief the gefs over the geps and eps both of which show a very different look day 15-16 with heights already lowering west of AK and the pattern over N America better to begin with. Why choose the statistically worse guidance when it’s alone?  Persistence?  

The EPS showed us getting snow a lot last year. I think they had a few long range patterns with +PNA and -EPO but it might be because they are based on '91-20 normals. I'm sorry for going against the majority, but I don't think the EPS is that great. I think its idea comes solely from demand (good ECMWF model). 

[Ralph Wiggum]

83 was awesome wrt dynamics and rates.

96 is probably my fave. Lived 2 miles from PHL airport where they do official measurements and I can confirm ~30"....no dry slot no mixing.

2016 is close....~29" here just N of Philly but we dry slotted and mixed for a chunk. If no slot/mix that would easily have been #1.

93 was meh (again near PHL airport). Around a foot.

Location, location, location.

[Eskimo Joe]

1996 is the king. End discussion.

[TJ3]

29 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said:

Ah 1979!  I was in northern Calvert and it's my best ever - even beating all my MontCo events (1996, 2003, 2010 and 2016).  It was like a hurricane of snow with easily 30 inches with 6-foot drifts.  There was a period where we could not see the woods 50 feet behind the house and got 6" in one hour.  Wind gusts 60-plus.  I was there for 1983 - dry slot got us.  Missed 1987 in FL.  1993 was a gut punch with 6" then driving rain

I don’t post much but seem to comment once a year about February ‘79 so will do so again. If for no other reason I was around to see it and many on here are younger. But it is the reason I participate in this odd hobby. On the hours at dawn and after, I had  never seen it snow with such intensity and to this very day, I still have not. Not even close honestly. And have been here for every major event since then except January 1982. It is indelibly etched in my memory forever. 

[anotherman]

My personal favorite adult experience was the 2010 twin blizzards. I’ve never seen that much snow in this part of the world. Over 50 inches on the ground. My wife was pregnant at the time and our heat went out during the second storm. Luckily, the sun came out the next day and the heat came back on.

Best childhood memory was the blizzard of ‘93. It was during my senior year of high school. Went to bed with a thunderstorm and temps in the 50s. Work up to 15 inches of snow blowing up against the front door. There was also a huge accumulation of sleet under the snow. Amazing storm!

[ravensrule]

4 minutes ago, anotherman said:

My personal favorite adult experience was the 2010 twin blizzards. I’ve never seen that much snow in this part of the world. Over 50 inches on the ground. My wife was pregnant at the time and our heat went out during the second storm. Luckily, the sun came out the next day and the heat came back on.

Best childhood memory was the blizzard of ‘93. It was during my senior year of high school. Went to bed with a thunderstorm and temps in the 50s. Work up to 15 inches of snow blowing up against the front door. There was also a huge accumulation of sleet under the snow. Amazing storm!

I don’t think anyone here can handle my favorite adult experience. 

[anotherman]

I don’t think anyone here can handle my favorite adult experience. 

[psuhoffman]

46 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

The EPS showed us getting snow a lot last year. I think they had a few long range patterns with +PNA and -EPO but it might be because they are based on '91-20 normals. I'm sorry for going against the majority, but I don't think the EPS is that great. I think its idea comes solely from demand (good ECMWF model). 

EPS scores significantly better than gefs at day 10 verification scores. 

[yoda]

Well... good start to the night as 00z ICON holds and looks a little bit colder

[Chris78]

Icon is a DC and southeast snow.

Definitely the most souther of the globals. Looks cold. Snow down into Central Va

Edit: Yoda beat me to it

[Jebman]

March 13 1993. It snowed much of the night, an inch per hour we had 8 inches of pure snow on the ground, then it changed to sleet, very heavy sleet, that hurt , because the sleet balls were so large! Then Ugh. It changed to rain, that became heavy, and it POURED for hours! Then it mixed with sleet later, then with snow, then went over to all snow. The 8 inches that fell earlier froze up, and three more inches of snow blew around on top of the glacier. Anyone from Dale City remember Godwin Middle? The back of it was like a miniature ski resort. The hill was icy as all hell, I had this old beat up plastic sled, I was sliding down that glacier amid the strong winds swirling falling snow and wind blown snow off the ice all around! I must have slid down that thing fifty times! It was so damned COLD, with that wind! It was so fast, that ice hill, and really sharp, if you didnt have gloves you got cut up something terrible! IF only we had stayed all snow! I heard some of the mountains got three feet of snow with monstrous drifts!

[ravensrule]

Just now, Chris78 said:

Icon is a DC and southeast snow.

Definitely the most souther of the globals. Looks cold. Snow down into Central Va

Edit: Yoda beat me to it

Right where we want it at this point. 

[pazzo83]

96 is probably tops for me (around 3 ft in Staunton) but 93… man, we will never see a storm like that again.

[Fozz]

5 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Happy New Year! (was just wondering whether you still posted here...though I can't blame you for not, lol)

It’s been a while since there was much to talk about here.

As for the weekend storm I’m a bit cautious about the cities and close suburbs (though I hope I’m wrong!), but ski country seems to have a very good chance so I’m really looking forward to it.

[pazzo83]

93 was insane… heavy snow in northern FL, 50+” in the mountains of NC, VA, and WV, blizzard conditions from GA to ME.  We got about 20” of wind driven snow and hours of white out conditions 

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, pazzo83 said:

93 was insane… heavy snow in northern FL, 50+” in the mountains of NC, VA, and WV, blizzard conditions from GA to ME.  We got about 20” of wind driven snow and hours of white out conditions 

When National Geographic runs a 1 hour special on the storm and interviews Barb Watson, you know it was a solid event.

[Fozz]

I wish I was old enough to remember 1993 and 1996 better. I do vaguely remember the insane drifts from Jan 1996 but I was so young at the time.

Feb 2010 was definitely the all-timer with the two back-to-back blizzards.

Jan 2016 comes close. And then PDII and Dec 2009 and the whole 2013-14 winter.

[Jebman]

Anyone remember the ice storms of 1994? I forget the dates now, but freezing rain at 19 degrees that changed to sleet, and then that sleet poured and poured down, three inches worth then it glaciated. It was a real challenge to walk on that stuff. It would hit 45 degrees and would hardly melt.

There was another ice storm, I think this one started as snow, 1-2 inches also in 1994, then it changed to sleet then just plain freezing rain, that fell most of that night, it piled up about an inch deep. Then it fell to about 6 degrees and froze that glacier nice and tight. I dont think anyone was walking much that morning after. It was slippery as heck, even I was having trouble trying to walk on that sheer ice sheet. For us, 1994 was the winter of the Ice.

[87storms]

I was too young to appreciate ‘83, but I do remember being in awe at the amount of snow on our patio. To me, 2016 is the king. ‘96 and ‘03 are next up, but there’s some SECS/MECS sleeper picks that were just as enjoyable. For example, Feb 21, ‘15 was an overachieving, quality daytime snowfall.

[yoda]

Anyone have the 00z ICON snow map?  I'm guessing it's like 2-4 inches lol

[WesternFringe]

3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

This kind of proves my point...that the temps are the most important issue...the thing I don't get is you act like its a given we will always have temp problems...NO its not...There are plenty of times we had a cold enough antecedent airmass in place that was....wait for it...5-10 degrees colder than the one forecasted this week.  And that's why it snowed those times and why it might not this time for many places!

Look at where the thermal boundary is at 850 and surface as the wave approaches

Surface

850...and look where the REAL cold boundary is

This is NOT what we want or need the thermals to look like as a wave begins its final approach...the WAA hasn't even kicked into high gear yet and were already too warm!  We are left relying on everything else to be absolutely perfect to make up for the one main deficiency.  

Look at what we WANT the thermals to look like as a strong wave approaches us from the southwest...just so we can remember what COLD ENOUGH looked like, what we actually want the thermals to look like.  

January 1996

Ok maybe this isn't fair...it's one of our colder big storms and during a Nina.  So here is a storm in another strong Nino during a very "warm" winter...at least by those days standards

Feb 1983

And finally...Feb 2010 and at the time this was considered to be a marginal airmass!  I remember about 5 days before that event I was discussing with Wes weather the airmass would be cold enough, he thought it was problematic and we were debating if with a perfect track it would be able to overcome the "questionable" airmass... so this was considered marginal and the bare minimum of what we need to be cold enough to snow

Still miles better than what we have leading up to this event on guidance.  

So we could be super picky and analyze what we need from the SLP track and the upper low and the exact amplitude of the wave and the exact composition of the 50/50 and the western trough....but the one obvious flaw that makes it so that we need all that other crap to go 100% perfectly for us to get a big snow in DC is that its NOT COLD ENOUGH.  

BTW the reason I have been saying this a LOT lately is because its been true a lot lately and its why its not been snowing much the last 7 years.  This is the least edgy controversial thing Ive ever said.  Its a melba toast comment.  Its like DUH.  There is no mystery to why we haven't been snowing as much lately.  

THIS IS WHY...Temp anomalies Dec-Feb last 7 winters

ITS THAT SIMPLE 

Say it more.  You have proven your point (at least to your self-satisfaction) literally hundreds of times.  We all come here to talk about how it might snow and to have fun with it.  What is the actual f-ing utility of saying the same thing over and over and over?  

At a certain point, who cares if this used to be a snowier set-up?  What we all care about is snow chances for next week.  We don’t need an incessant and never-ending dissertation why it would have been a better set-up 20 years ago.  Who fucking cares? Jesus christ.  

Most of us just care about the fun of snow chances next week, and really don’t care where you think it fits historically at all or in the least little bit.  This hobby is supposed to be fun and you are a kill joy at times.

It’s that simple.

 

[GEOS5ftw]

Those 1994 ice storms were what got me into weather which eventually became my career! I do remember 93 but it was 94 that I got into watching TWC all the time.

Two distinct memories from that year (all these are from near IAD) - the MLK day ice storm which started out as snow in the morning, then progressed to sleet and freezing rain during the day. Just when the temp hit 32 the arctic front came through and froze everything solid...the water that had ponded in my backyard literally become a skating rink (I had taken ice skating lessons a couple years earlier, and jammed my feet, which had grown a good deal in those 2 years, into my skates just so I could say I skated in my yard!). This week had a few sub-zero low and single digit highs, and there was a clipper that came through later in the week that dropped 1-2 inches of some of the lightest, fluffiest snow I have ever seen.

Mid-February there was a huge sleet storm - I want to say that the piles of sleet that bounced off the roof created 2 foot "drifts" around the house but the accumulation elsewhere was more like 4-6 inches. 

Then we had 2 inland runner storms, one in early january and another in early march, which were 3-6 inch type deals with wet snow, although I remember hearing that north and west did much better in these.