Ji Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Dallas will get creamed in the snow at Washington.They better not Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 26 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Confluence can and does trend stronger as an event nears. There are not many upper air sites in eastern Canada. See the Dec 2009 event. There was forecast to be a sharp snowfall gradient in PA and as the event closed a piece of the confluence was analyzed by the RAOB network in the northeast US. It caused the snowfall forecast for central PA to bust too high. Sure, but this isn't Dec 2009. Not even remotely close. Kind of like the Ravens vs the Dolphins. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 3 minutes ago, Ji said: They better not Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk I might literally beat a cowboy fan to death with a footlong weenie if they lose to us next week. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Are you back?I was cliff searching but not quite jumping yet. I will say, pretty crazy differences between GFS/GEFS and euro/eps/geps come mid month. I hope GEFS is wrong in LR or I will be jumping off the Walt Whitman . 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Did anyone see the 18z NAM? 1 2 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 I keep saying the 4th might not be done yet. Get an early phase and we get snowed with that one too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 2 minutes ago, Snowchaser said: Did anyone see the 18z NAM? That's what we call a southern slider exiting stage left. No Geese! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 3 minutes ago, Heisy said: I was cliff searching but not quite jumping yet. I will say, pretty crazy differences between GFS/GEFS and euro/eps/geps come mid month. I hope GEFS is wrong in LR or I will be jumping off the Walt Whitman . Patience. Things might not get good in the lower elevations of the MA until late Jan. Feb into March could be a memorable period. Just my wag at this point. No one likes to hear that, but it's just the way we roll in Ninos for the most part. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Something like this- 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 2 hours ago, WesternFringe said: I was talking about when you said this. We all know this. Saying it would be different if it were 5-10 degrees colder is meaningless. Of course it would. You say this a lot. This kind of proves my point...that the temps are the most important issue...the thing I don't get is you act like its a given we will always have temp problems...NO its not...There are plenty of times we had a cold enough antecedent airmass in place that was....wait for it...5-10 degrees colder than the one forecasted this week. And that's why it snowed those times and why it might not this time for many places! Look at where the thermal boundary is at 850 and surface as the wave approaches Surface 850...and look where the REAL cold boundary is This is NOT what we want or need the thermals to look like as a wave begins its final approach...the WAA hasn't even kicked into high gear yet and were already too warm! We are left relying on everything else to be absolutely perfect to make up for the one main deficiency. Look at what we WANT the thermals to look like as a strong wave approaches us from the southwest...just so we can remember what COLD ENOUGH looked like, what we actually want the thermals to look like. January 1996 Ok maybe this isn't fair...it's one of our colder big storms and during a Nina. So here is a storm in another strong Nino during a very "warm" winter...at least by those days standards Feb 1983 And finally...Feb 2010 and at the time this was considered to be a marginal airmass! I remember about 5 days before that event I was discussing with Wes weather the airmass would be cold enough, he thought it was problematic and we were debating if with a perfect track it would be able to overcome the "questionable" airmass... so this was considered marginal and the bare minimum of what we need to be cold enough to snow Still miles better than what we have leading up to this event on guidance. So we could be super picky and analyze what we need from the SLP track and the upper low and the exact amplitude of the wave and the exact composition of the 50/50 and the western trough....but the one obvious flaw that makes it so that we need all that other crap to go 100% perfectly for us to get a big snow in DC is that its NOT COLD ENOUGH. BTW the reason I have been saying this a LOT lately is because its been true a lot lately and its why its not been snowing much the last 7 years. This is the least edgy controversial thing Ive ever said. Its a melba toast comment. Its like DUH. There is no mystery to why we haven't been snowing as much lately. THIS IS WHY...Temp anomalies Dec-Feb last 7 winters ITS THAT SIMPLE 7 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 2 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: I don't care what others say, until the southern jet feature is inside the North American RAOB network, wild swings occur. During the Dec 2009 snowstorm, there was a RAOB site (New Orleans?) that was launched late and they didn't get in for the 00z GFS. The result was a dry looking 00z GFS/GEFS that freaked a lot of people out. Thankfully someone here caught it in the NCEP model diagnostic disco (I think it was either you or @WxUSAF). Color us shocked when the 12z GGS/GEFS snapped back to a big storm. I just learned that "NWS takes observations at 92 stations; 69 in the conterminous United States, 13 in Alaska, 9 in the Pacific, and 1 in Puerto Rico. " What other sources of data does NOAA feed in to the GFS? Especially on the west coast where there are only 9 stations in the pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 23 minutes ago, Ji said: I bet Dallas gets flexed to Sunday night Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Nah. They will flex that Bills/Dolphins game to Sunday night. Its for all of the marbles. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Now before others run for a cliff... I am not saying this problem will persist all winter... This is specific to this one threat. And I am not saying it has no chance. Maybe all those other things do go perfectly. But we would need a damn perfect upper and surface track, a perfect 50/50, and perfect amplitude of the wave. Or maybe guidance is wrong and it trends colder...a stronger 50/50 could help with that. That is very possible. If we want to root for anything its simply root for the guidance to trend 5 degrees colder. That isn't impossible at this range. It happened before January 2016 from this range. That was a better setup to start but it was very very marginal temps from day 8 and trended colder. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 PSU in fairness you are comparing a Feb bomb to an early January chance. Way different timeframes there. The longwave pattern changes a lot in that month. And I am not saying we havent warmed. I am with you on that. You know that. But its tough to compare those two specific setups. February is just an entirely different beast. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 9 minutes ago, CAPE said: Something like this- Some new data was incorporated into the run and they fixed the height fields for week 4 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 This kind of proves my point...that the temps are the most important issue...the thing I don't get is you act like its a given we will always have temp problems...NO its not...There are plenty of times we had a cold enough antecedent airmass in place that was....wait for it...5-10 degrees colder than the one forecasted this week. And that's why it snowed those times and why it might not this time for many places! Look at where the thermal boundary is at 850 and surface as the wave approaches Surface 850...and look where the REAL cold boundary is This is NOT what we want or need the thermals to look like as a wave begins its final approach...the WAA hasn't even kicked into high gear yet and were already too warm! We are left relying on everything else to be absolutely perfect to make up for the one main deficiency. Look at what we WANT the thermals to look like as a strong wave approaches us from the southwest...just so we can remember what COLD ENOUGH looked like, what we actually want the thermals to look like. January 1996 Ok maybe this isn't fair...it's one of our colder big storms and during a Nina. So here is a storm in another strong Nino during a very "warm" winter...at least by those days standards Feb 1983 And finally...Feb 2010 and at the time this was considered to be a marginal airmass! I remember about 5 days before that event I was discussing with Wes weather the airmass would be cold enough, he thought it was problematic and we were debating if with a perfect track it would be able to overcome the "questionable" airmass... so this was considered marginal and the bare minimum of what we need to be cold enough to snow Still miles better than what we have leading up to this event on guidance. So we could be super picky and analyze what we need from the SLP track and the upper low and the exact amplitude of the wave and the exact composition of the 50/50 and the western trough....but the one obvious flaw that makes it so that we need all that other crap to go 100% perfectly for us to get a big snow in DC is that its NOT COLD ENOUGH. BTW the reason I have been saying this a LOT lately is because its been true a lot lately and its why its not been snowing much the last 7 years. This is the least edgy controversial thing Ive ever said. Its a melba toast comment. Its like DUH. There is no mystery to why we haven't been snowing as much lately. THIS IS WHY...Temp anomalies Dec-Feb last 7 wintersITS THAT SIMPLE Man, 83’ is one event I would have loved to experience. Check out the ULL just NE of Maine. Looks like it just trapped that beast underneath it. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, Heisy said: Man, 83’ is one event I would have loved to experience. Check out the ULL just NE of Maine. Looks like it just trapped that beast underneath it. . It was amazing. Actually the 80's in general were amazing. I wish everyone could have experienced them as a teenager. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: PSU in fairness you are comparing a Feb bomb to an early January chance. Way different timeframes there. The longwave pattern changes a lot in that month. And I am not saying we havent warmed. I am with you on that. You know that. But its tough to compare those two specific setups. February is just an entirely different beast. I used an example from January 7th also. I am not even making a warming argument here. I haven't said ANYTHING about this being too warm because its warmer now. I just compared the temps in front of this threat to what it looked like in front of actual snowstorms that came at us with a somewhat similar angle and wave amplitude. That's why I picked the examples I did. I almost used one from December. It wouldn't matter what time of year you still need a cold enough airmass in front of the wave if you want to get a big snow in DC. Once in a blue moon they can luck their way into a big snow with everything going right to overcome temps but that is a losing proposition way more often then not. The much easier path to a snowstorm in DC is to have a cold enough airmass in front of the wave. The DC area can also manage a smaller snow with "less" luck. But this is a pretty nice setup, the main limiting factor is the temps, as currently shown on guidance, are not really adequate to resist any strong WAA. The storm will create a boundary and try to follow it and without enough resistance to the WAA ahead of the wave it threatens to push that boundary too far to the NW for DC to get a snowstorm. I'm honesty shocked at the pushback to this. Make it 5 degrees colder in front of this and our chances of this being a big snowstorm go way way up, regardless of minor changes in all those other variables we are following now only because we need them all to be 100 perfect to compensate for the inadequate thermals. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmvpete Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 hour ago, MillvilleWx said: Yeah. He’s okay I guess In complete agreement with @wxmvpete I mentioned earlier today that we haven’t sorted out many of the minor details within the mid and upper pattern leading in. There’s feedback mechanisms that will lead to the storm potential and those will take time to solve. This doesn’t even account for minute details of the thermals once we get closer, so long as there’s a storm to follow for our area. Complexities abound. Just remember, it’s still a ways before the impact time frame. Relax, follow along, and don’t live with each model run. We have a long way to go That MillvilleWx guy is a pretty good dude also. Knows his stuff pretty darn well. P.S.A. for all the mets that contribute on here. It takes time away from their day (and nights depending on what your job is), while balancing being a significant other/spouse and possible father/mother that many of the mets make to contribute on here. I wish when I was in middle/high school that I had the kind of access to degreed mets (and even those non-mets that have learned a ton over the years on forums such as these) that younger folks have today. It's going to be a long 5-6 days for this system and still plenty of winter to go. Be courteous and treat others how you'd like to be treated. Sprinkle in a couple good snowstorms and this place ought to be fun. 26 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 WB 12Z EPS compared to 18Z. Looks like a shift east, and a little colder in NE. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 6 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: It was amazing. Actually the 80's in general were amazing. I wish everyone could have experienced them as a teenager. I was too little to remember much of it, but my mom STILL talks about it to this day, and she’s lived through all the blizzards here including from 79 through 16. I think 83 was her favorite and still has pics of it. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I used an example from January 7th also. I am not even making a warming argument here. I haven't said ANYTHING about this being too warm because its warmer now. I just compared the temps in front of this threat to what it looked like in front of actual snowstorms that came at us with a somewhat similar angle and wave amplitude. That's why I picked the examples I did. I almost used one from December. It wouldn't matter what time of year you still need a cold enough airmass in front of the wave if you want to get a big snow in DC. Once in a blue moon they can luck their way into a big snow with everything going right to overcome temps but that is a losing proposition way more often then not. The much easier path to a snowstorm in DC is to have a cold enough airmass in front of the wave. The DC area can also manage a smaller snow with "less" luck. But this is a pretty nice setup, the main limiting factor is the temps, as currently shown on guidance, are not really adequate to resist any strong WAA. The storm will create a boundary and try to follow it and without enough resistance to the WAA ahead of the wave it threatens to push that boundary too far to the NW for DC to get a snowstorm. I'm honesty shocked at the pushback to this. Make it 5 degrees colder in front of this and our chances of this being a big snowstorm go way way up, regardless of minor changes in all those other variables we are following now only because we need them all to be 100 perfect to compensate for the inadequate thermals. Am with you on this. I’m surprised at the pushback as well, and pleasantly so at the guidance trends yesterday. We’re forgetting that 1/7 was depicted as a rainstorm with the 0 line all the way to the great lakes. This has indeed trended colder, and I’m hoping this trend continues. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 15 minutes ago, Heisy said: Man, 83’ is one event I would have loved to experience. Check out the ULL just NE of Maine. Looks like it just trapped that beast underneath it. . Lightning and thundersnow....4-5"/hr rates for 1.5-2.5 hrs. Unreal stuff man. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 It was amazing. Actually the 80's in general were amazing. I wish everyone could have experienced them as a teenager. I grew up in the 80s (Silver Spring) and can confirm that it was the best snow decade that I’ve experienced. I’m sure being a kid probably exaggerates some of the snowfall, but I just remember there being a lot of days with snow on the ground. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Lightning and thundersnow....4-5"/hr rates for 1.5-2.5 hrs. Unreal stuff man. Yea I was 9 years old and living in Philadelphia at the time the north side of the alley way had like 2" of snow down and the south side of the driveway had 5-7 feet of snow. We got 22.5". Yes, thunder and lightning with heavy snow with graupel mixed the wind was pretty significant too probably was gusting past 40 mph. After the storm left the next day, it was pretty warm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, 87storms said: I grew up in the 80s (Silver Spring) and can confirm that it was the best snow decade that I’ve experienced. I’m sure being a kid probably exaggerates some of the snowfall, but I just remember there being a lot of days with snow on the ground. At the risk of making a “water is wet” statement, I remember it being much colder, too. I have fond memories of the back to back 87 storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 53 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: I might literally beat a cowboy fan to death with a footlong weenie if they lose to us next week. Your wife might get a laugh out of that one 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 15 minutes ago, Terpeast said: I was too little to remember much of it, but my mom STILL talks about it to this day, and she’s lived through all the blizzards here including from 79 through 16. I think 83 was her favorite and still has pics of it. 83 was by far the best storm here ever. I don’t even think it’s close, and i was here for all the other big ones. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Your wife might get a laugh out of that one I would have to remider her I said millimeters not inches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: At the risk of making a “water is wet” statement, I remember it being much colder, too. I have fond memories of the back to back 87 storms. Yea, I remember we had to use the snowblower for the 2nd one, though Feb ‘87 is prob the one that took my snow obsession to another level. That one was the mothership of heavy, wet snowstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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