psuhoffman Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 19 minutes ago, WesternFringe said: Straw man. When was it ever going to be 5-10 degrees colder in this setup? You and others even told us so from the get go. ETA: it looks forecast to be cold enough out here to have a really good chance of accumulating snow west of 81. And also up the valley ene from me. etaa: but what I don’t claim to know is the final result, which is why we all track. If you do know, it is kinda boring I would imagine I’m talking about the DC Baltimore area. You’re a whole different world. And i never said I ever thought it would be colder. I’m just saying if we wanted to make this setup much more likely to end up snowy for DC v just a possibility if a bunch of stuff breaks right…having a colder antecedent airmass if the one variable that would do that. That’s not even controversial. Im not even sure what you’re taking issue with. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 6+ days out. Still time for things to change. Perhaps it changes for the worse, but we’re not out of the game yet, especially N&W areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 29 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I don’t know. But I know with the marginal thermal situation we need everything else to break near perfectly. 50/50 isn’t perfect rain. SW too amplified rain. Surface track inside at all…rain. I guess you can focus on all those variables but the one simple thing that would change all this in our favor would be if the airmass was maybe 5-10 degrees colder. Sucks that it takes weeks to recover from the pac puke. Hopefully the good pattern can last long enough to cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
konksw Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 I’d love to see a storm that has been shifting NW come back. Just never seems to. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 27 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I’m talking about the DC Baltimore area. You’re a whole different world. And i never said I ever thought it would be colder. I’m just saying if we wanted to make this setup much more likely to end up snowy for DC v just a possibility if a bunch of stuff breaks right…having a colder antecedent airmass if the one variable that would do that. That’s not even controversial. Im not even sure what you’re taking issue with. Because saying it would’ve been different if it were 5 to 10° colder on every storm in the winter is a meaningless thing to say. Of course it would. That goes for anywhere and any climo. So why keep saying it? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 21 minutes ago, konksw said: I’d love to see a storm that has been shifting NW come back. Just never seems to. There are no shifts this far out. There’s will likely be a storm. Hoping for consistency with model runs is a dream 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Just now, WesternFringe said: Because saying it would’ve been different if it were 5 to 10° colder on every storm in the winter is a meaningless thing to say. Of course it would. So why keep saying it? Great point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Changes early, affects the 4th … affects the weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 2 hours ago, Heisy said: GEPS and Op euro setting up for beautiful pattern in LR GEFS is a disaster so let’s hope that’s wrong . Just hug the CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Changes early, affects the 4th … affects the weekend? Yes. Two rules that have consistently served me well: 1.) Changes in the first event likely impact the second, for better or worse. 2.) Details on the second event typically won't become clear until the next operational run that has RAOB data (00z or 12z). Example: the 2nd Feb 2010 event became clearer 12 hours after the first event had cleared out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: 1 hour ago, WesternFringe said: I don’t know. But I know with the marginal thermal situation we need everything else to break near perfectly. 50/50 isn’t perfect rain. SW too amplified rain. Surface track inside at all…rain. I guess you can focus on all those variables but the one simple thing that would change all this in our favor would be if the airmass was maybe 5-10 degrees colder. I was talking about when you said this. We all know this. Saying it would be different if it were 5-10 degrees colder is meaningless. Of course it would. You say this a lot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 18z won't be as amped as 12z... let's see if that translates into anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 GFS looks to be making baby steps back in the right direction. At least would be a better thump if CAD trends our way as it does as things get closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 I-81 crushed 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Thermals are better for 18Z GFS... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 18z GFS is better for immediate metro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Thermals are going to be an issue with that track! Love the high numbers, not convinced this is a sloppy mess. Better than 12z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Just one run but with that gradient through my house… my front yard facing NW might get more snow than my rear yard 2 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 KGAI on northward it seems 10"+ verabritm tight ass gradient, one small tick south and thats 12-18" NW of 95 for many 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 It’s better. Suppress it 75 more miles and it’s on. To be fair, I don’t think we have a clue at this point. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 I really liked the CAD showing up. It seemed to shunt the low a bit south with the transfer. The edge of the snowline is always a concern. This was at least a tick in the better direction! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmvpete Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 There are many variables to watch for next weekend's winter storm. The first glaring one that stands out is northern Quebec. The ECMWF does NOT buy what the GFS is selling with the upper low aiding in stronger confluence. The CMC is more of a blend of the two. Outside of the upper level feature in the South, that upper trough the GFS is showing in northern Quebec will be something I'm monitoring in the coming days. 15 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 We need the Low a further south than St. Mary's County for snow in immediate DMV but we could at least all get on the board w this track 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Happy New Year! 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 16 minutes ago, wxmvpete said: There are many variables to watch for next weekend's winter storm. The first glaring one that stands out is northern Quebec. The ECMWF does NOT buy what the GFS is selling with the upper low aiding in stronger confluence. The CMC is more of a blend of the two. Outside of the upper level feature in the South, that upper trough the GFS is showing in northern Quebec will be something I'm monitoring in the coming days. Hey all - this is a post from this particular poster you 100% need to study.* Thanks for the input, Pete. *If you all don't know, he's on the desk at WPC so...yeah. When Pete drops by to speak, listen and learn. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Just now, Fozz said: Happy New Year! Happy New Year! (was just wondering whether you still posted here...though I can't blame you for not, lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 A bit better for everyone, a lot better for some says Kuchera. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 9 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: It’s better. Suppress it 75 more miles and it’s on. To be fair, I don’t think we have a clue at this point. When what one wave does is dependent on another, there's hardly ever a clue this far out. That's why I only looked at the run yesterday for two seconds, lol The usual Wednesday will probably be when we know a bit better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: When what one wave does is dependent on another, there's hardly ever a clue this far out. That's why I only looked at the run yesterday for two seconds, lol The usual Wednesday will probably be when we know a bit better. Yeah, that first system is just off CA about to enter the conus. I don’t know if sampling is a thing anymore like it was 10-15 years ago, but I think @Eskimo Joe mentioned it a page or two back 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now