Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming

[WEATHER53]

3 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

I think that is more hours of snow than we had all of last year!  Victory!  They Know!

It’s fun to have a southern track move ne-ene 

[TSSN+]

Lay down the snow cover!

[GEOS5ftw]

FWIW, I took a look at the AI models that ECMWF is running here: https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A["Experimental%3A Machine learning models"]}

With the caveat that they only produce the 850T/500 height/mslp fields, to my eye they all look pretty similar to the Euro op at 12z, if not more NW/warmer. I'm going to try to follow them this winter to see if they are less susceptible to trends than the physics-based suite.

[Chris78]

8 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Shows6+ hours of snow in DC. How is that a trend of no snow?

Are you saying the trend on the last 3 or 4 cycles of the GFS isn't bleeding the wrong way? If your want more snow, less rain.

[WesternFringe]

13 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Shows6+ hours of snow in DC. How is that a trend of no snow?

Also some of this could be artifacts of timing.  Would be more helpful to see a loop of 24 hrs from each run compared to one another 

ETA: the increased snow on the Euro from 0z to 12z is something to watch.  If it keeps looking like that, it might be a trend towards snowier outcomes for many in the MA

[WxUSAF]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Lay down the snow cover!

Webb is doing the Jack Nicholson nodding meme somewhere 

[TSSN+]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

Webb is doing the Jack Nicholson nodding meme somewhere 

Not what most wanna see in terms of snow in their backyard but let’s get that base north too and get the cold air going. 

[Heisy]

Teetering on perfection


.

[Ji]

Teetering on perfection


.

If I see another 500mb map 13 days out

[NorthArlington101]

This seems pretty fair at this juncture. Need to remember to check out Tomer Berg’s site more often — he’s got some good tools.

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

If I see another 500mb map 13 days out

Even if we are tracking a close threat, tracking the pattern still has value. Future pattern=better field for potential opportunities. For me that's the value I'm beginning to find in them. You can do both at the same time ya know!

[aldie 22]

6 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Teetering on perfection


.

Only looks about 71% there

[WEATHER53]

This is no cutter 

This is an evolving low pressure hopefully  of no greater than moderate intensity that will end up somewhere between Norfolk and northern Hatteras and moving ne-ene

ive seen it many times before half of you were even born . Society today Demands tolerance of other people experiences and thus views but somehow that is not in play here. 

 

[WesternFringe]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

If I see another 500mb map 13 days out

Why come to this thread then?

Or are you saying it is time for a separate Jan 6/7 thread?  Yes, I said it. Lol

[WEATHER53]

10 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

Also some of this could be artifacts of timing.  Would be more helpful to see a loop of 24 hrs from each run compared to one another 

It’s going to be one of these where the timing of becoming cloudy will be important and an indicator 

[yoda]

LWX seems interested - this afternoon AFD for next weekend threat

As we move into the weekend, attention will turn to a storm system
approaching from the south and west. By Friday night, this system
will be located over the southern Plains. The initially closed upper
low is modeled to transition into more of an open wave and
potentially take on a negative tilt as it tracks east-northeastward
toward our area. With the system taking on a negative tilt, there
could be a corresponding strong area of low pressure at the surface,
with access to ample moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. As one would
expect seven days out, there is still considerable spread with
respect to the track of this system, but most solutions cluster
somewhere between a track into the eastern Ohio Valley and along the
coast just off to our south and east. Probabilities for substantial
QPF continue to increase. If the storm were to take a favorable
track off to our south and east, some or all of this could occur as
snow across portions of the area. Synoptically speaking, most
solutions don`t have a strong area of high pressure off to the
northeast, which could work against a snow solution, but the airmass
in place ahead of the system is fairly cold/dry, which could create
a decent amount of cold air in-situ once precipitated into. We`ll
continue to monitor this system over the upcoming week, as it has
the potential to be the first substantial winter storm of the season
(and really last two seasons) to the east of the mountains.

[Prestige Worldwide]

https://x.com/bamwxcom/status/1741546984413036629?s=46&t=j_-aw-4tjFwrt5AoXKNk5A

[DarkSharkWX]

i know its snow mean but EPS at end of run looks really good, 7" snow mean and >30% chance NW of the fall line for over 6"

[Ralph Wiggum]

GEFS and GEPS. Both have a SPV pressed into a brief split. Certainly shouldn't hurt things any:

[WesternFringe]

Just now, DarkSharkWX said:

i know its snow mean but EPS at end of run looks really good, 7" snow mean and >30% chance NW of the fall line for over 6"

So, is winter still canceled?

[DarkSharkWX]

Just now, WesternFringe said:

So, is winter still canceled?

icl people who canceled winter in a nino winter before new years are not looking good rn 

[WEATHER53]

4 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

So, is winter still canceled?

I don’t think that trend will develop 

[JenkinsJinkies]

36 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Lay down the snow cover!

DCA gets trolled again

[AtlanticWx]

feels like we're just setting up for an amazing late winter with all that snow cover we're setting rn

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Did the vort over SD/NE hurt us? It didn’t exist on the GFS. Saw the same things you did and assumed it would be a better run but it wasn’t

I think the biggest problem is the antecedent airmass just isn’t cold enough for a good but somewhat flawed setup to work. We could over analyze whatever little thing causes this or that. But systems will try to find the real thermal boundary. And the  boundary with the best gradient is to our north. 

[WesternFringe]

11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I think the biggest problem is the antecedent airmass just isn’t cold enough for a good but somewhat flawed setup to work. We could over analyze whatever little thing causes this or that. But systems will try to find the Barcelona’s boundary. And the real boundary with the best gradient is to our north. 

No one knows the final result yet.  As depicted, you may be right, but who knows? It is hubris to think you know more than the models that are not even showing the final outcome yet.  

The models don’t even agree with one another and you seem to weight the lowest verification score model (the GFS and it cousin the GEFS) as your bighest deb trend rationale.

 

[IronTy]

12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I think the biggest problem is the antecedent airmass just isn’t cold enough for a good but somewhat flawed setup to work. We could over analyze whatever little thing causes this or that. But systems will try to find the Barcelona’s boundary. And the real boundary with the best gradient is to our north. 

Barcelona's boundary?  Is that near Short Pump?

[Carvers Gap]

53 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Teetering on perfection


.

Check out what the control does.  The first of the cold hits the US/Canadian border by Jan 7.  

[psuhoffman]

13 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

No one knows the final result yet.  As depicted, you may be right, but who knows? It is hubris to think you know more than the models that are not even showing the final outcome yet.  

The models don’t even agree with one another and you seem to weight the lowest verification score model (the GFS and it cousin the GEFS) as your bighest deb trend rationale.

 

I don’t know. But I know with the marginal thermal situation we need everything else to break near perfectly.  50/50 isn’t perfect rain. SW too amplified rain.  Surface track inside at all…rain. I guess you can focus on all those variables but the one simple thing that would change all this in our favor would be if the airmass was maybe 5-10 degrees colder. 

[WesternFringe]

17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I don’t know. But I know with the marginal thermal situation we need everything else to break near perfectly.  50/50 isn’t perfect rain. SW too amplified rain.  Surface track inside at all…rain. I guess you can focus on all those variables but the one simple thing that would change all this in our favor would be if the airmass was maybe 5-10 degrees colder. 

Straw man.  When was it ever going to be 5-10 degrees colder in this setup? You and others even told us so from the get go. 

ETA: it looks forecast to be cold enough out here to have a really good chance of accumulating snow west of 81.  And also up the valley ene from me.

etaa:  but what I don’t claim to know is the final result, which is why we all track.  If you do know, it is kinda boring I would imagine