SnowenOutThere Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 The next super long range storm on the Euro is looking intense ... not sure if thats intense good or bad yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 31, 2023 Author Share Posted December 31, 2023 2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: you guys are going to be a hot mess if you lean on the OP runs this much. follow the ensembles. I wouldn't even say there's been a trend towards one solution or the other, we have another model cycle before anything like that can be said Are going to be? 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Far be it from me to get in the way of performative angst, but this time period has already been on the radar for a week or more. For most of that time, it’s been clear we may have temp issues. So N/W areas favored, but not hopeless for folks below the fall line. Not sure what should at all change that basic mindset now or probably for at least the next 3-4 days. 5 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Are going to be? UKMET out to sea, ICON buries Virginia, GFS smokes NYC, CMC smokes you guys, and ECMWF got way colder pretty well defined idea of what this is going to do IMO 3 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: UKMET out to sea, ICON buries Virginia, GFS smokes NYC, CMC smokes you guys, and ECMWF got way colder pretty well defined idea of what this is going to do IMO But the trends… 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 GEPS and Op euro setting up for beautiful pattern in LR GEFS is a disaster so let’s hope that’s wrong . 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 4 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: The next super long range storm on the Euro is looking intense ... not sure if thats intense good or bad yet. Doesn't matter at this point, but a 986 there isn't likely to die out quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: UKMET out to sea, ICON buries Virginia, GFS smokes NYC, CMC smokes you guys, and ECMWF got way colder pretty well defined idea of what this is going to do IMO Euro was all rain east of 81 at 0z and before that, so even 12z while not ideal is a reverse trend vs the gfs 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 4 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Doesn't matter at this point, but a 986 there isn't likely to die out quickly. So far out and will be different in 12 hours but with the high position that's probably a decent front end thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 12z NAVGEM looks like a pristine track 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 To my untrained eye I think that what todays 18z runs show will 100% be the outcome for something a week away. or it won’t 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 7 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Doesn't matter at this point, but a 986 there isn't likely to die out quickly. 986!! Hmm looking like a cutter to me...... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Curious are we still 75% there to that IT look or did it trend worse like 74%? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 EPS runs the mean MSLP over the VA/KY borderthis ended up being slightly dishonest - it transfers… but run is worse overall. Obv not out of it entirely 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 27 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: The trends are obvious. How is one run a trend? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Just now, WEATHER53 said: How is one run a trend? Follow the thread Howard 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 47 minutes ago, WesternFringe said: You practically said 25% for each of 4 scenarios, so you have all of your bases covered and the forecast is essentially meaningless, but keep trashing others with ad hominem attacks. eta: ninja’d by NA101 Are you another self appointed corrector of other posters? We have a couple already and that’s enough 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 WB 12Z EPS. NW zones still in the game. Couple of big hits still area wide.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 9 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Are you another self appointed corrector of other posters? We have a couple already and that’s enough No, but I don’t call people names. Can you say the same? You made a forecast, I commented on it. I still find it literally meaningless to forecast similar probabilities for 4 such disparate outcomes. eta: and always will 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 6 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: How is one run a trend? 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 WB 12Z EPS low positions. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 10 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: EPS runs the mean MSLP over the VA/KY border this ended up being slightly dishonest - it transfers… but run is worse overall. Obv not out of it entirely Your edits are killing me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 4 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z EPS. NW zones still in the game. Couple of big hits still area wide.... How does this compare to the 00z snow mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 7 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: There are no trends, only your myopic tendency of melancholy Bro chill. It's just weather, it's not that deep. Loosen up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 7 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z EPS. NW zones still in the game. Couple of big hits still area wide.... Can you get verification scores for the ensemble members anywhere? That would be fun data to have Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 6 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Shows6+ hours of snow in DC. How is that a trend of no snow? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 6 minutes ago, Chris78 said: How does this compare to the 00z snow mean WB 12Z EPS compared to 0Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 1 minute ago, WesternFringe said: Can you get verification scores for the ensemble members anywhere? That would be fun data to have Agreed! I have asked the same question. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 2 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Shows6+ hours of snow in DC. How is that a trend of no snow? I think that is more hours of snow than we had all of last year! Victory! They Know! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Bro chill. It's just weather, it's not that deep. Loosen up. Tell you what Ralphie Don’t chime in on my posts in a derisive manner and we can stay “loose” as you suggest. Your”canceling” of next weekend is grossly premature and immature and your persistent melancholy is childish and boorish.. Need more feedback? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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