Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming

[TSSN+]

Most members decently se of op. 

[nj2va]

I like seeing the GEFS SE of the OP but there’s a handful of OH valley members that track a bit more north than 6z.  I’d like to see those go away over the next few days.

[NorthArlington101]

Just for the record, not necessarily to be a downer, but GEFS has been on a downhill slide since 00z. 3 runs of the GFS alone does not a concrete trend make, but it’s not great stuff.

[WinterWxLuvr]

4 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

People will always fret even at long range but I took one look at your map and my 1st thought was a low is unlikely to be there. It’s just not a path I see them take. I’d say in that setup it either goes flat across NC and further south or it shoots west and then jumps. 

Shooting west of the Apps seems definitely on the table

[DCAlexandria]

Most members decently se of op. 

.

[SnowDreamer]

12Z GEPS looks like a hold-serve vs 00Z. 

[winter_warlock]

15 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Most members decently se of op. 

Now that looks much better than the gfs OP!!    Will prevent  cliff jumping lol

[Jebman]

4 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

NGL.... it's very thought provoking. Every part of my wx intuition says this blocking episode will run until end of Feb. Maybe longer. 

For those that haven't been around for a long duration block, it doesn't mean we snow a lot. It can still do anything.... rain, dry, blizzard... takes more than a block to snow here. The big positive is *IF* something sets up right, the chance of maximizing is much higher. Blocks wax, wane, and wiggle too. They don't just park. But just having a blocked longwave pattern that fights back against latitude gain can open the door to many more possibilities than quick/progressive flow. 

Such as a slow moving snowstorm.  Or even an outright capture, which could promote very long-duration heavy snows.

[blizzardmeiser]

Going from D8 to D7 and discussing trends….

[WesternFringe]

Question for the mets, is there a NBM for ensembles? Or does the blend include ensembles, ops, and mesos? If it includes all, does the weighting change as time progresses toward zero hours out?

[Ralph Wiggum]

31 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Most members decently se of op. 

Shocker. But hug the op 'trends'.

[konksw]

Just wait a few days for NAM to save us. 

[Maestrobjwa]

Personally I don't like playing the "hopefully the wave before goes ape" game because it's seems like a bit of a lower percentage shot...but maybe that's just recency bias since I can't remember the last 50/50 low that aided a storm, lol

[Jebman]

5 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

100%. This is a crappy mock up but gets the point across. Get the Aleutian low (of any magnitude) to undercut the epo and it opens the door for a Seattle to St Louis track on the NS and a classic split coming into the SW. Either stream can produce individually (NS always dicey lol) but the phase potential lights up. Add in a steep epo and the polar stream joins the party. Get the NS and polar stream to link a few times and the conus will get real cold too as the bowl carves and vodka spills in. 

I can see it plain as fookin' day lol.... but is this the real life, or is it just fantasy? 

 

 

 

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Shocker. But hug the op 'trends'.

The gefs is trending warmer also. 

[Weather Will]

WB GEFS snow mean current and last 4 runs about the same IMBY.  Less SE.

[Terpeast]

I’ll say this. Even if this particular event doesn’t pan out as an i-95 special, this should give us reason to feel good about the rest of the winter. The STJ is relentless and unloading its ammo with no end in sight. All we need is to get more cold air on top of us. And 1-2 moderate/big hits is all we need to reach climo, plus another hit to get above. 

[WesternFringe]

4 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB GEFS snow mean current and last 4 runs about the same IMBY.  Less SE.

The latest run looks most similar to its run 24 hours ago, except for a slightly better push SE with the 2” line in northern Maryland and towards the metros.

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z GEFS has another wave before the expected warm up... and it is colder.

[Weather Will]

WB GEFS snow mean thru day 12 and Indiv. Members.

[Daniel Boone]

45 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Shooting west of the Apps seems definitely on the table

Yeah, trending that way. Appears to be a weakness there up the eastern OV. 

[WesternFringe]

23 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The gefs is trending warmer also. 

Starting from what reference point?  Last 3 runs?  Last 5?  Last 10?

Not being contentious, just honestly curious.  Like you have correctly stated before the starting point is important to denote when identifying trends, and choosing that starting point can frame the data in any way you would like to frame it.  In other words, I am wondering about the magnitude and the timing of the trend.

eta: For example, the 18 hr trend on Will’s gefs mean snowfall maps was robust and towards more widespread snowfall in Virginia, but the 24 hr trend was minor and only a slight push SE with the heavier snow line.

[EastCoast NPZ]

Don't care if it's rain or snow.  Just give me significant precip.

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, WesternFringe said:

Starting from what reference point?  Last 3 runs?  Last 5?  Last 10?

Not being contentious, just honestly curious.  Like you have correctly stated before the starting point is important to denote when identifying trends, and choosing that starting point can frame the data in any way you would like to frame it.

From last night’s runs, I assume. 

It’s trended colder from 4+ days ago when it was depicted as all rain.

So the actual verification might be somewhere in the middle. Too early to tell, but I’m not sold on this being a mostly snow event here. We don’t even have the first wave passing us yet, and that will partly determine the cold air setup here. 

[Jebman]

1 hour ago, mappy said:

The emotional swings every 6hrs is fascinating to watch though. 

Might be time for an epic deb manifesto.

[WEATHER53]

Definitely something to watch and the low is not going to hop all over the place. It’s a coastal.  Might be too close or too mild but about an equal chance of it working .

Right now for immediate DC area (Inside beltway and 20 miles in any direction outside) I will preduct

0”-30%
1-5”-30%
6-10”-20%
10”+-20%

 

[NorthArlington101]

Definitely something to watch and the low is not going to hop all over the place. It’s a coastal.  Might be too close or too mild but about an equal chance of it working .
Right now for immediate DC area (Inside beltway and 20 miles in any direction outside) I will preduct
0”-30%
1-5”-30%
6-10”-20%
10”+-20%
 

[Jebman]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

On the positive side if this goes sideways at least we won’t have to hear all the complaining when the snow gets washed away 2 days later by the cutter. 

This cutter washing away the snow can be mitigated by simply grabbing a Jebman Shovel then piling up the snow embarrassingly high on the north side of sunlight  blocking objects. Pack it down  then pile it way up. That's what I would do if I was there. Pile up snow like The Jebman!

[WesternFringe]

9 minutes ago, Jebman said:

This cutter washing away the snow can be mitigated by simply grabbing a Jebman Shovel then piling up the snow embarrassingly high on the north side of sunlight  blocking objects. Pack it down  then pile it way up. That's what I would do if I was there. Pile up snow like The Jebman!

I like you and always have enjoyed your posts, but do you always talk about yourself in 3rd person?  Too funny.  Lol

20 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

From last night’s runs, I assume. 

It’s trended colder from 4+ days ago when it was depicted as all rain.

So the actual verification might be somewhere in the middle. Too early to tell, but I’m not sold on this being a mostly snow event here. We don’t even have the first wave passing us yet, and that will partly determine the cold air setup here. 

If one data point from where you start makes a trend, then my Stats professors lied to me.  Agree with your post regarding the first wave determining a lot of the outcome of the second wave.

[WEATHER53]

9 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Observation and 50 year  historical record keeping vs clueless and dependents solely  upon models.