87storms Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: I think we get a thump at least. We still have a HP heading into the event. Not really a strong one but enough to get some CAD in place at least. Yea, I need to remind myself that I'm in Frederick now. This storm is within my striking distance...I don't care what happens along the 270 split lol. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 11 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: you guys are going to be a hot mess if you lean on the OP runs this much. follow the ensembles. I wouldn't even say there's been a trend towards one solution or the other, we have another model cycle before anything like that can be said The emotional swings every 6hrs is fascinating to watch though. 3 2 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 phrasing lmao 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 It's a wonder more of you aren't true alcoholics watching models at D7 and basing your emotions for each run. We likely haven't even seen the expected solution yet. Ensembles and cluster analysis are best at this range. All options are on the table. Lean storm coming north compared to being squashed due to lack of blocking and weak confluence to the north, but also don't think everyone in the sub will get skunked. If you're along or southeast of the fall line, I'd temper your expectations on this one. This is likely not a classic 95 setup. We are lacking a true antecedent airmass or drilling high. If that changes, then game on, but not the most likely solution at this juncture. I'm curious to see the GEFS for this one. 18 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Omg the copium is out of control. Why do so many gravitate to one extreme or the other. There is either no trend and everything looks awesome because we should ignore anything that looks bad and just look at wherever still shows a good track. Or…it’s over these always trend north and this has no chance. Reality: The trend isn’t good, these do usually trend north, this isn’t where we ideally want to be, but they don’t always trend north. There are things that could reverse the trend. I’d say it’s 30/70 against us but that’s not hopeless and definitely still worth tracking. And obviously places further NW have a better chance than that here. Our best shot to reverse this would be for the 50/50 to trend more amplified and further SW. the 50/50 low is going to help but i think the biggest concern is the west coast trough crashing in way too early and sending the low too NE, thats what happened this run despite the 50/50 looking stronger(at least initally) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: phrasing lmao An awful joke imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Well im in baltimore county MD so... With these storms its always a wait and see thing till its right on top of us lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: You can go hunting for obscure data to support anything. Or you could loop the last 3 runs of the Euro, GFS and CMC and see a clear trend. It could turn around but we all know that’s not the most likely outcome. Why set yourself up for disappointment? If this is one of those 30% that things don’t trend north for some reason (we get lucky and the 50/50 goes ape or the NS phases in a better location) then we can be happy. But denying the clear trend and expecting the least probable outcome seems to just be setting us up for a bad bad meltdown. I hear what you are saying and I dont disagree. If I were to bet I would think this has the making of a N and W of the fall line setup....maybe thump to mix/rain/or otherwise for the usual locals. But we have one poster congratting Cape Cod, another congratting Buffalo. How far N do you feel this is going to go? I doubt all the modeling is off on the strength of the 50/50. It's more a timing thing imo. And the next step is probably the start of the windshield washer effect. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 GFS with another chance on the 11th. We are heading into prime climo with an active southern stream. I am feeling pretty damn good at this point actually. We will have our chances. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 I know it is an op run at 6-7 days, but the gradient on the 12z GFS is crazy if it were to verify like that. Verbatim Augusta Co imby would get 10-12” but 10-15 miles away would get 0-1”! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 ukmet looks good, cold and south less amped than 0z 15 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Just now, DarkSharkWX said: ukmet looks good, cold and south less amped than 0z Hmm how accurate is the ukmet compared to gfs a week out ?? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Just now, winter_warlock said: Hmm how accurate is the ukmet compared to gfs a week out ?? Lol verification scores are 2nd just behind euro ahead of cmc and gfs 9 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Just now, winter_warlock said: Hmm how accurate is the ukmet compared to gfs a week out ?? Lol UKMET is the second highest scoring model. the GFS is the worst major model lmao still 11 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Well gfs was nw... cmc Was a lil bit south east of gfs .....And ukmet was south and colder.... cant wait to see what the 12z euro has !! Lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 2 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said: verification scores are 2nd just behind euro ahead of cmc and gfs Oh. Ok nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 In order for this window to work out for the lowlands, wave timing/spacing is especially critical, given there isn't a sustained block in place and cold air availability is marginal. Comparing this GFS run to the ones with the better outcomes, there is a bit too much spacing relative to the 50-50 vortex, and ofc the shortwave itself is stronger/ more amped. That might work if there was a block, but it becomes really touchy in this case wrt the 50-50 position/strength. Anyway, still plenty of time and a pretty good bet guidance doesn't have the details nailed down at this juncture. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: UKMET is the second highest scoring model. the GFS is the worst major model lmao still Nicee then lock it in !! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: UKMET is the second highest scoring model. the GFS is the worst major model lmao still It amazes me how so many people consider its solutions so often for that reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 23 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Exactly. 36 hrs ago winter was canceled and no threats on the horizon. This place lol. Heisy cancelled winter last week and is now back in the forum cancelling this storm 6 days out. 3 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: UKMET is the second highest scoring model. the GFS is the worst major model lmao still I know I've seen them before, but where can I find various lead-time verification score graphs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 1 minute ago, nj2va said: Heisy cancelled winter last week and is now back in the forum cancelling this storm 6 days out. He is one of these Philly drive-by debs we used to see a lot of in the past. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 6 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: Hmm how accurate is the ukmet compared to gfs a week out ?? Lol Technically the day 5 and 7 scores say it’s Euro, UKMET, CMC, GFS. Anecdotally the uk seems to struggle with east coast storms though. Doesn’t mean it’s wrong now though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Where are people getting the UK past 144? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 On the positive side if this goes sideways at least we won’t have to hear all the complaining when the snow gets washed away 2 days later by the cutter. 1 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 10 minutes ago, CAPE said: In order for this window to work out for the lowlands, wave timing/spacing is especially critical, given there isn't a sustained block in place and cold air availability is marginal. Comparing this GFS run to the ones with the better outcomes, there is a bit too much spacing relative to the 50-50 vortex, and ofc the shortwave itself is stronger/ more amped. That might work if there was a block, but it becomes really touchy in this case wrt the 50-50 position/strength. Anyway, still plenty of time and a pretty good bet guidance doesn't have the details nailed down at this juncture. Hobbyist analysis incoming, but it almost looks like the HP setup is better on 12z than 0z. Seems like this is really just a matter of the storm being too amped, otherwise it seems like a workable setup. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Technically the day 5 and 7 scores say it’s Euro, UKMET, CMC, GFS. Anecdotally the uk seems to struggle with east coast storms though. Doesn’t mean it’s wrong now though. Ahhh. Ok ty bro! Ill take modeling this far out with a grain of salt! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Where are people getting the UK past 144? The low is on the eastern FL panhandle at 144, so clearly se if the others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 GEFS tracks through NC. But it is toasty for the coastal plain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 2 minutes ago, 87storms said: Hobbyist analysis incoming, but it almost looks like the HP setup is better on 12z than 0z. Seems like this is really just a matter of the storm being too amped, otherwise it seems like a workable setup. The stronger shortwave is the biggest difference yes. If it's that amped its going to be hard to get it to track underneath given the general h5 setup. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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