DCAlexandria Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Just hug the Canadian folks. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Jumps to the mouth of the bay and Winchester gets destroyed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Cmc, but keep in mind the trends . 2 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Writing is on the wall. The trend continues to depress.. Unless we see another trend, I think we have to just accept it! Now looking for the ripple effects on the longer range. 1 2 1 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Just hug the Canadian folks.It was good… probably even really good. still a shift in the “wrong” direction though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 WB 12Z GFS 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 7 minutes ago, Heisy said: 12z gfs will be amped, 50/50 backing off a bit and main wave is even stronger, congrats buffalo this run . Please book your road trip. Godspeed my friend. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
konksw Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Could be a cutter by 2024 at this rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 It’s a week out and w the 1/4 system not yet resolved we have room/time for significant changes 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z GFS With the positioning of that low, I'll take it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 12Z GFS looks a whole heck of a lot like the 00Z EURO. Double SLP on either side of the mountains eventually consolidates into a coastal. Thermals are trashed for a lot of the sub and new england is crushed with snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Hell of storm for the Cape. NE guys loving this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 1 minute ago, midatlanticweather said: Writing is on the wall. The trend continues to depress.. Unless we see another trend, I think we have to just accept it! Now looking for the ripple effects on the longer range. “The writing is on the wall” before the 12z runs yesterday most people thought this was a long shot! I’m all for panicking but this thing is still 7 days away no trend is at the point where it’s impossible to trend back. That said if we continue to see more north west tracks through tomorrow and beyond then it’s pretty much over. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 One saving grace is its 7 days out! So alot can and will change in next 168 hours! Lol. Im mean come on folks do any if us really wanna be in the bulls eye 7 days out?? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: With the positioning of that low, I'll take it! Thermals are trashed by that point. Way to amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 4 minutes ago, Heisy said: Cmc, but keep in mind the trends . What trends? There us still a camp of guidance well to our S that skirts even OUR sub. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Gfs is going to be a disaster I think. Hope I’m wrong Congrats PSU...literally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 CMC looks good NW of 95 but this is heading the wrong way at this range. We’re way too far out to already be fighting the R/S line. The bias isn’t as bad as it once was but in my experience more often things still trend slightly north on these the last 100 hours. 6 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 you guys are going to be a hot mess if you lean on the OP runs this much. follow the ensembles. I wouldn't even say there's been a trend towards one solution or the other, we have another model cycle before anything like that can be said 8 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said: “The writing is on the wall” before the 12z runs yesterday most people thought this was a long shot! I’m all for panicking but this thing is still 7 days away no trend is at the point where it’s impossible to trend back. That said if we continue to see more north west tracks through tomorrow and beyond then it’s pretty much over. Exactly. 36 hrs ago winter was canceled and no threats on the horizon. This place lol. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 4 minutes ago, konksw said: Could be a cutter by 2024 at this rate. That would still be an improvement over this winter up to this point. One of these storms needs to be the table setter. We don't do "mild to all of a sudden snow patterns" very well. It's usually a process. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 you guys are going to be a hot mess if you lean on the OP runs this much. follow the ensembles. I wouldn't even say there's been a trend towards one solution or the other, we have another model cycle before anything like that can be saidI hope nobody actually thinks it’s over. But this is PTSD from the past couple of years. We’ve actually had trackable storms at Days 5-7 in the Mid-Atlantic the past few years, as I’m sure you recall. They just all ended up cutting or too amped 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 I dont even know if the event on the 4th is gone at this point. Get some phasing earlier and we could snow from that one as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 you guys are going to be a hot mess if you lean on the OP runs this much. follow the ensembles. I wouldn't even say there's been a trend towards one solution or the other, we have another model cycle before anything like that can be saidI don’t disagree about ensembles, but we almost never want events to be shown this far N at this range. Ralph what S models? Icon is pretty much it? Ensembles are always gonna be smoothed out and farther SE at this range. Cmc always tends to have a tightened up ccb field btw, always find that interesting with it, wonder why. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: What trends? There us still a camp of guidance well to our S that skirts even OUR sub. You can go hunting for obscure data to support anything. Or you could loop the last 3 runs of the Euro, GFS and CMC and see a clear trend. It could turn around but we all know that’s not the most likely outcome. Why set yourself up for disappointment? If this is one of those 30% that things don’t trend north for some reason (we get lucky and the 50/50 goes ape or the NS phases in a better location) then we can be happy. But denying the clear trend and expecting the least probable outcome seems to just be setting us up for a bad bad meltdown. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: “The writing is on the wall” before the 12z runs yesterday most people thought this was a long shot! I’m all for panicking but this thing is still 7 days away no trend is at the point where it’s impossible to trend back. That said if we continue to see more north west tracks through tomorrow and beyond then it’s pretty much over. While I agree there is time to change, and I also thought it was a long shot from the beginning, the trends are not one model run or anything. We know it can turn favorable, but it is a rarity. CMC looks good but shifting, Euro has been saying this is not going to work, and now the GFS is telling us that this will not likely work out. I am up for a change, but in events we usually like to see things improving on every run to get me to a positive attitude about it turning favorable.. if that trend shows up, I will be fine with it! If this is a fail, thank goodness it is showing this 7 days out! The Lucy ball was pulled early! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: CMC looks good NW of 95 but this is heading the wrong way at this range. We’re way too far out to already be fighting the R/S line. The bias isn’t as bad as it once was but in my experience more often things still trend slightly north on these the last 100 hours. It looks like there's redevelopment off the coast. I guess at this point it's a matter of how soon that occurs. It still looks like a workable setup to get snow to mix/rain, at least closer to the M/D line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 1 minute ago, 87storms said: It looks like there's redevelopment off the coast. I guess at this point it's a matter of how soon that occurs. It still looks like a workable setup to get snow to mix/rain, at least closer to the M/D line. I think we get a thump at least. We still have a HP heading into the event. Not really a strong one but enough to get some CAD in place at least. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: I think we get a thump at least. We still have a HP heading into the event. Not really a strong one but enough to get some CAD in place at least. This is the best case scenario from what I think as well. Thump.. that will be more likely in your area than east of the Blueridge. Hoping for positive trends to offset the negatives today! But maybe we call all see a brief period of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Omg the copium is out of control. Why do so many gravitate to one extreme or the other. There is either no trend and everything looks awesome because we should ignore anything that looks bad and just look at wherever still shows a good track. Or…it’s over these always trend north and this has no chance. Reality: The trend isn’t good, these do usually trend north, this isn’t where we ideally want to be, but they don’t always trend north. There are things that could reverse the trend. I’d say it’s 30/70 against us but that’s not hopeless and definitely still worth tracking. And obviously places further NW have a better chance than that here. Our best shot to reverse this would be for the 50/50 to trend more amplified and further SW. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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