Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming

[32º]

Stratospheric warming may bring polar vortex. https://spaceweather.com/

[CAPE]

4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

100%. This is a crappy mock up but gets the point across. Get the Aleutian low (of any magnitude) to undercut the epo and it opens the door for a Seattle to St Louis track on the NS and a classic split coming into the SW. Either stream can produce individually (NS always dicey lol) but the phase potential lights up. Add in a steep epo and the polar stream joins the party. Get the NS and polar stream to link a few times and the conus will get real cold too as the bowl carves and vodka spills in. 

I can see it plain as fookin' day lol.... but is this the real life, or is it just fantasy? 

 

 

Ha I was just about to do something like this illustrating the shifts we ideally want to occur. I can see it. Might be a bit of a fantasy now but hopefully it becomes real.

[stormy]

25 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

One thing I keep repeatedly thinking about is how March has become a "better" winter month since 2014. On the flip, Dec has become more of a fall month in these parts. Makes sense with ocean temps among other things. What's interesting is the atmosphere still seems to want to run a "normal" winter cycle just later. 09/10 started in early Dec and pretty much quit after Feb 10th. We got missed by a biggie after but for the most part winter ended then. Especially with temps. Gotta wonder if a more typical and classic Nino patten sets up in mid Jan and runs thru mid March (or later) instead of shutting off in Feb like previous similar Ninos. Seasonal and monthly guidance had that idea going much of the fall. Maybe we should all stop caring so much about Dec. Maybe the signals for a good winter come later than usual. Just tossing out ideas. Plenty of time to observe over the coming years. 

Out here in the Valley, that has been my observations since the 60's. The first killing frost in the fall is now often 3 - 4 weeks later than the 60's. Late October compared to late Sept. In the spring the last killing frost is often 3 - 4 weeks later than the 60's. Mid May compared to late April.

[nj2va]

 

 

[Rhino16]

3 minutes ago, nj2va said:

 

 

Of course it will snow at school while everyone’s gone… hopefully plenty of opportunities to come though…

[MDScienceTeacher]

3 hours ago, yoda said:

Looks like 06z GEFS is going the offshore route at 168

 

Per the op,  sub 990 low going over Central VA under an air mass that has been historically warm means temp issues.  Not saying it couldnt happen, we have the 50-50 low so that should help to fight the warm air, I am just saying dont invest too much in to this storm until we get closer.

One silver lining is that the GEFS shows a much different track, with the low pressure bombing out after it exits the coast:

[nj2va]

9 minutes ago, MDScienceTeacher said:

Per the op,  sub 990 low going over Central VA under an air mass that has been historically means temp issues.  Not saying it couldnt happen, we have the 50-50 low so that should help to fight the warm air, I am just saying dont invest too much in to this storm until we get closer.

One silver lining is that the GEFS shows a much different track, with the low pressure bombing out after it exits the coast:

I like seeing the cluster of High Pressures. 

[winter_warlock]

24 minutes ago, MDScienceTeacher said:

Per the op,  sub 990 low going over Central VA under an air mass that has been historically means temp issues.  Not saying it couldnt happen, we have the 50-50 low so that should help to fight the warm air, I am just saying dont invest too much in to this storm until we get closer.

One silver lining is that the GEFS shows a much different track, with the low pressure bombing out after it exits the coast:

The 06z  gfs control was  too far inland for my taste im glad to see the ensembles   farther east

[MDScienceTeacher]

19 minutes ago, nj2va said:

I like seeing the cluster of High Pressures. 

Right.  And on the gefs as a result the low pressure tracks over Georgia and out over benchmark.  Based on the overall run to run consistency of the blocking to our north and northeast I don’t expect much to change over the next several days. It’s gonna come down to how the minute details play out like how strong the hp is to our north and the timing of when and where the low bombs out to our south. 

 

[Heisy]

The 06z  gfs control was  too far inland for my taste im glad to see the ensembles   farther east

Ensembles are generally always smoother than OP. Don’t really remember a time when they weren’t with STJ events

I’d rather this max stripe be over DT at this range right now. Lol.

Snow field reminds me over a warmer dec 2020, could be congrats BGM at the end.

If this fails though it’s okay. Pattern def looks solid rest of month. We probably wanted a near miss before we get cranking anyway






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[Ralph Wiggum]

14 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Ensembles are generally always smoother than OP. Don’t really remember a time when they weren’t with STJ events

I’d rather this max stripe be over DT at this range right now. Lol.

Snow field reminds me over a warmer dec 2020, could be congrats BGM at the end.

If this fails though it’s okay. Pattern def looks solid rest of month. We probably wanted a near miss before we get cranking anyway






.

You're glass is half empty then. I see those as more of a traditional N and W of I95 or left of the fall line look...not an "omg it's going to trend N because it's already too far N and W" look. But thats just me.

[midatlanticweather]

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

You're glass is half empty then. I see those as more of a traditional N and W of I95 or left of the fall line look...not an "omg it's going to trend N because it's already too far N and W" look. But thats just me.

Trends are not super friendly here! We shall see. That 50/50 is key (a myriad of ther things)! We are getting to a range where some better understanding of Thursday's low and the 50/50 interaction. It is all a delicate dance, and our feet keep getting stepped on in each run. I am a deb here, but that is what I am seeing. Does not mean it is correct. Just remember, PSU was fringed at one point! Now models are giving PA and the NE snow. Just an observation. The ensembles give me pause and some hope, but just not loving trends. 

 

[psuhoffman]

4 hours ago, Ji said:

This is what psu wanted. A nino low so strong that only he cashes in

This has historical potential....also historical heartbreak but better than tracking a cape progressive wave that gives him 3 inches lol

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There are flaws in this setup. The antecedent airmass is marginal. The storm crashing into the west is trying to pump. Ridge in the east.  There is a -nao but not a true block. The only hope we have to suppress this is the 50/50 and we need some NS interaction.  It’s not the typical Nino “easy” setup where a split flow stj wave is coming at us with cold in place and ridging out west and a block. It’s not an awful setup, if the 50/50 trends SW or the NS interaction improves we can win, but I could see this becoming a ski resort storm if those details don’t break our way. 
 

As for what I want my best storms are when you get crushed also.  The bullseye right over DC to Baltimore is perfect. I get more simply due to better ratios and enhanced precip from upslope orographic effects. If DC and Baltimore are rain I can get a pretty good snow here but it’s not gonna be 12”+.  This is further NW than I want it for me here at this range. Sure I could salvage a few inches here if this goes sideways where as DC might be totally screwed but why would I root for that over all of us getting destroyed. . 

[Heisy]

You're glass is half empty then. I see those as more of a traditional N and W of I95 or left of the fall line look...not an "omg it's going to trend N because it's already too far N and W" look. But thats just me.

Little bit, years in this hobby make you jaded a bit. I’m not writing it off, we’re way too far out. Regardless you know me, I’ll be the first one to jump in a car and chase anything over a foot of snow. So just rooting on a big event regardless


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[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

5 hours ago, Ji said:

Eps chart. Best I've seen it in years

Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk
 

I'm going to bump this, because that's

[psuhoffman]

@Ji Case in point there have been 11 snowstorms of greater than 15” here since 1980.  Every one of them was also a big storm for you.  We share the same big storms.  

Jan 96: 36”

Feb 11 2010: 30”

Jan 2016: 28”

Feb 2003: 28”

Feb 83: 28”

Feb 5 2010: 27”

Feb 2014: 23”

Dec 2009: 18”

Feb 1987: 18”

March 93: 17”

Feb 2006: 16”

 

[Imgoinhungry]

Im mentally prepared to see the low move west and for it to be over Kentucky at 12z on 1/7.


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[clskinsfan]

2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

People will always fret even at long range but I took one look at your map and my 1st thought was a low is unlikely to be there. It’s just not a path I see them take. I’d say in that setup it either goes flat across NC and further south or it shoots west and then jumps. 

I dont know. That is a pretty classic track for a Shenandoah Valley special. Obviously way out there. But with the marginal air mass it would favor elevated areas anyways. 

[osfan24]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Ji Case in point there have been 11 snowstorms of greater than 15” here since 1980.  Every one of them was also a big storm for you.  We share the same big storms.  

Jan 96: 36”

Feb 11 2010: 30”

Jan 2016: 28”

Feb 2003: 28”

Feb 83: 28”

Feb 5 2010: 27”

Feb 2014: 23”

Dec 2009: 18”

Feb 1987: 18”

March 93: 17”

Feb 2006: 16”

 

February of 2014 forever pains me. Got crushed overnight with like 10-12 inches of snow and then it was just a little too warm during the day and I had drizzle and a ton of melting. There was like four inches left on the deck by the end of it. I think it did eventually get colder late in the afternoon and we got some heavy graupel that turned back to snow for a short period. Meanwhile, it snowed pretty steadily all day back up your way and really dumped on you. I was in college at UMCP for the February 2006 storm and do not remember that one at all. I cannot imagine we got over a foot of snow down there and I don't remember it.

[Eskimo Joe]

2 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

February of 2014 forever pains me. Got crushed overnight with like 10-12 inches of snow and then it was just a little too warm during the day and I had drizzle and a ton of melting. There was like four inches left on the deck by the end of it. I think it did eventually get colder late in the afternoon and we got some heavy graupel that turned back to snow for a short period. Meanwhile, it snowed pretty steadily all day back up your way and really dumped on you. I was in college at UMCP for the February 2006 storm and do not remember that one at all. I cannot imagine we got over a foot of snow down there and I don't remember it.

The gradient from that event was incredible. Takoma Park recorded 5" of snow, while Damascus got almost 24", IIRC.

[EastCoast NPZ]

I hate that Feb 11, 2010, storm with all my heart.

[psuhoffman]

13 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

February of 2014 forever pains me. Got crushed overnight with like 10-12 inches of snow and then it was just a little too warm during the day and I had drizzle and a ton of melting. There was like four inches left on the deck by the end of it. I think it did eventually get colder late in the afternoon and we got some heavy graupel that turned back to snow for a short period. Meanwhile, it snowed pretty steadily all day back up your way and really dumped on you. I was in college at UMCP for the February 2006 storm and do not remember that one at all. I cannot imagine we got over a foot of snow down there and I don't remember it.

Feb 2006

 

[yoda]

12z ICON is stuck at 138 lol

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

I hate that Feb 11, 2010, storm with all my heart.

At least your area did do a little better than most in the first 2 HECS storms that season. 

[clskinsfan]

Just now, yoda said:

12z ICON is stuck at 138 lol

Its out on weather.us. Very similar to the CMC with a central VA favor.

[NorthArlington101]

12z ICON is stuck at 138 lol

It’s out to 147 on WB.

Regardless, it must be showing such a historic blizzard that it’s double checking its work.

[osfan24]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Feb 2006

 

That makes more sense for Feb 2006. College Park clearly in the 8-12 and I am guessing it was much closer to 8 and possibly even a localized amount under 8. I am not sure why, but College Park always seemed to run warmer than surrounding areas. Do remember the February 2003 crushjob very well. That one hit us good down there, though again, not as hard as I got hit at home.

[psuhoffman]

Remember the days when we complained about getting only 10” before mixing or a dryslot!!!

[Jersey Andrew]

21 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Ji Case in point there have been 11 snowstorms of greater than 15” here since 1980.  Every one of them was also a big storm for you.  We share the same big storms.  

Jan 96: 36”

Feb 11 2010: 30”

Jan 2016: 28”

Feb 2003: 28”

Feb 83: 28”

Feb 5 2010: 27”

Feb 2014: 23”

Dec 2009: 18”

Feb 1987: 18”

March 93: 17”

Feb 2006: 16”

 

Interesting that Jan 96 was the granddaddy of snowstorms for you rather than Feb 2010. Jan 96 was 2 feet for me in Fairfax while 2010 was around 28 inches. Feb 2010 must be Knickerbocker clone for DC metro.

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

Its out on weather.us. Very similar to the CMC with a central VA favor.

Good. I’m more concerned with too amped than south att. Not saying suppressed isn’t possible also, there is a squeeze play going on. But given recent history warm seems the bigger threat than suppressed. FWIW 6z eps at 144 was interesting. More NS interaction and more amped but also more space out west. Not sure how that would have played out.