Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming

[WEATHER53]

I think waiting on indexes to do something’ does not work as well as just seeking when low pressure and high pressure will set up correctly for mid Atlantic.!I think 1/7ish is showing that.  I now think it’s going to pull down quite cold air for 2-3 days after it departs 

[Ralph Wiggum]

7 minutes ago, rjvanals said:

Euro misses south 

 

3 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said:

euro was a nice step forward

[MillvilleWx]

The 5H vort panels tell the story with the differences in both the GFS and ECMWF. The difference in the handling of the northern stream is vastly different between each model, thus the outcome on guidance is different. GFS has much more interaction between the northern and southern stream where as the Euro is completely disconnected from the two leading to any surface reflection unable to gain any latitude. Will be interesting to see how it all evolves over the next week. I'll be monitoring, but I won't put too much time into it at this lead. 

[psuhoffman]

15 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

I’m not sure how much shoving a 1025 high southern Hudson Bay Area can do. Too weak .

It’s the flow not the pressure that’s causing the suppression. 

7 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

I think waiting on indexes to do something’s does not work as well as just seeking when low pressure and high pressure will set up corrrctky for mid Atlantic.!I think 1/7ish is showing that.  I now want yo adcalso yhat it’s going to pull down quite cold air for 2-3 days after it departs 

The long wave pattern which was correctly identified by guidance from like 3-4 weeks out is what creates the threat. The specifics that will determine how that threat evolves and if it snows here can’t be known until shorter leads. Those are two completely different things. Long range pattern identification v a medium range synoptic forecast 

5 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

The 5H vort panels tell the story with the differences in both the GFS and ECMWF. The difference in the handling of the northern stream is vastly different between each model, thus the outcome on guidance is different. GFS has much more interaction between the northern and southern stream where as the Euro is completely disconnected from the two leading to any surface reflection unable to gain any latitude. Will be interesting to see how it all evolves over the next week. I'll be monitoring, but I won't put too much time into it at this lead. 

How much of that has to do with the euro crashing the western system into the party. Seems just from a glance the western energy links up with the NS SW that the gfs is instead partially phasing with our threat.  Once that happens it hangs out STJ energy out to dry. 

[MillvilleWx]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

How much of that has to do with the euro crashing the western system into the party. Seems just from a glance the western energy links up with the NS SW that the gfs is instead partially phasing with our threat.  Once that happens it hangs out STJ energy out to dry. 

It's part of the equation. There's a lot of spread in the ensembles with that western system, so that will be another piece to keep an eye on in the coming days 

[psuhoffman]

34 minutes ago, snowfan said:

We know. You don’t need to keep repeating yourself. That’s what so many people keep trying to convey to you and you refuse to listen. 

“Let me comment on it, wait why are you talking about this”. 90% of my posts are replies to someone else who commented on it.  If people don’t want to talk about it then DONT TALK ABOUT IT! 

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said:

It's part of the equation. There's a lot of spread in the ensembles with that western system, so that will be another piece to keep an eye on in the coming days 

Ironically they’re both opposite they’re old school biases right now. 

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

It's part of the equation. There's a lot of spread in the ensembles with that western system, so that will be another piece to keep an eye on in the coming days 

I don’t see any way this works if that western trough is as progressive as the euro says. We would need the 50/50 to move out to create space but that would least to rain anyways. We need the gfs to win that part of this fight. 

[Terpeast]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I don’t see any way this works if that western trough is as progressive as the euro says. We would need the 50/50 to move out to create space but that would least to rain anyways. We need the gfs to win that part of this fight. 

I’m interested in how the euro has trended in the last few runs. I’m only out to 99h on TT so I should see it soon

[brooklynwx99]

3 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I’m interested in how the euro has trended in the last few runs. I’m only out to 99h on TT so I should see it soon

EPS is way more amped

[brooklynwx99]

959 LOL

there has to be phasing with some of these. only way these lows can get that deep

[Ralph Wiggum]

3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

EPS is way more amped

Slp location is pretty much ideal but not sure that more amped look with more ridging out in front helps our cause.

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

Slp location is pretty much ideal but not sure that more amped look with more ridging out in front helps our cause.

gotta take your chances with amped lows here. weak sauce won’t work

[NorthArlington101]

EPS doesn’t look suppressed. It does look very marginal temp wise. Dare I say too warm

[Terpeast]

6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

EPS is way more amped

NS vort dug deeper for 1/4, but suppressed because the wave behind it is more weaker and thus more progressive, so less spacing. That adds to some uncertainty for the first event, which needs to be resolved to work out the details of the 1/7 event

[brooklynwx99]

now THIS is nice

[Blizzard of 93]

9 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

gotta take your chances with amped lows here. weak sauce won’t work

The 12z EPS is very interesting.

We are in the game & have a specific chance to track. That’s all we can ask for with 7 days to go.

 

[brooklynwx99]

a 2 sigma block at 12 days out is a serious signal. hope we can see this hold… this is the kind of block that can take over a pattern 

[Terpeast]

3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

a 2 sigma block at 12 days out is a serious signal. hope we can see this hold… this is the kind of block that can take over a pattern 

And with a SSWE / weak SPV, and we have the potential to get sustained blocking not unlike this one

[psuhoffman]

33 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I’m interested in how the euro has trended in the last few runs. I’m only out to 99h on TT so I should see it soon

[Maestrobjwa]

11 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

a 2 sigma block at 12 days out is a serious signal. hope we can see this hold… this is the kind of block that can take over a pattern 

Nice to see the GEFS losing full lat ridge of doom look as well. Nice ensemble trends today so far

[psuhoffman]

17 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

now THIS is nice

This is NOT intended to criticize that look. It’s good. This is meant to say how close it’s getting to PERFECT. 

In 24 hours it’s trended 75% of the way there already. But get those 2 anomalies centered where the Xs are and it’s the analog to every HECS DC to NYC storm!  It’s heading that way. 

[Chris78]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Nice to see tenps cooler at 12z compared to the 00z run for the 7th.

[Ralph Wiggum]

21 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

a 2 sigma block at 12 days out is a serious signal. hope we can see this hold… this is the kind of block that can take over a pattern 

She's a beaut Clark

[WxUSAF]

Seems like an encouraging 12z suite on balance. 

[psuhoffman]

Also a significant trend the way we want on the GEPS. It got 75% of the way to where we want in one run!  

look at the improvement in the N Pacific and High latitudes. I was hoping to see incremental improvement today but these were huge jumps in the right direction. 

[Terpeast]

13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Also a significant trend the way we want on the GEPS. It got 75% of the way to where we want in one run!  

look at the improvement in the N Pacific and High latitudes. I was hoping to see incremental improvement today but these were huge jumps in the right direction. 

Wow... huge HUGE improvement in the Aleutian low strength and positioning. With a roll forward, we should see that produce western ridging.

[Bob Chill]

48 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

a 2 sigma block at 12 days out is a serious signal. hope we can see this hold… this is the kind of block that can take over a pattern 

 

 

I'm too lazy to dig in my old hard drive but i did quite a bit of AO data crunching for DJFM some years back. Results spoke for themselves with the AO. NAO is much more volatile but there is almost always a connection because of shared troposphere lol.

Get the AO to tank to -2 or more during met winter, about 80% of the time it will mark the start of a 45 to as much as 60 period where it remains negative on the balance. Works both ways very well but this is the only fun way hahahaha. 

Our snow in the MA is most closely correlated to the AO. We do horrible unless it's negative. The more the better. NAO correlates more to storm size for obvious reasons but not storms in general. That said, a relaxing stout neg nao has been a precursor for some of our biggest and best storms when combined with a stout -AO. 

My guess is *IF* that big west based block forms along with a -AO (giant nao block will near guaranty a -AO), it's going to be around with varying strengths into mid Feb. Maybe longer. There's solid data to back that up. Wont know in advance because we can get seriously sucker punched with a tanking AO or NAO that quickly reverses in like a week or so. By mid Jan we'll know and if this is one of those stable blocks. I feel pretty strongly that it will be but that's just a gut guess. 

Even if the -NAO doesn't have big legs, it sure looks stout and if it relaxes as quick as it comes, that window could be a big storm window even in a pattern that is heading backwards. All in all, I've continue to like everything I see down the line. Just need to keep away from here and not let my mind get clouded by emotional disregulation and making big things out of blips and burps. Lol. I appreciate all your posts this year. Helps me rip and read quick and get out lol

[winter_warlock]

2 hours ago, MDScienceTeacher said:

Here are the individual Ensemble Members for the 7th.  This is noticeably north of the previous three runs. Good Cluster of lows.  Not sure if it will be cold enough.

 

Not a bad look at all for a week out!

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 hour ago, winter_warlock said:

Not a bad look at all for a week out!

And since we're not in a Nina it won't get the Mid Atlantic staple walk back with precip reduced by 75%.