Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming

[SnowenOutThere]

27 minutes ago, IronTy said:

"Just be glad you got to live through an epic period for snow storms"

Nice that’s true for everyone else, just another thing robbed from my generation … that said if we’re talking about climate changes for my future there’s a lot more pressing issues than decreased snowfall

[snowfan]

8 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Nice that’s true for everyone else, just another thing robbed from my generation … that said if we’re talking about climate changes for my future there’s a lot more pressing issues than decreased snowfall

Damn. How young are you? BWIs current 10 year average is 16.7”, which is certainly not the lowest 10 yr avg in its reporting history. 10 year stretches in the 40/50s, 70s, 80s/90s all had lower averages. 

[winter_warlock]

1 hour ago, Heisy said:

Even look at last nights 00z euro control for another example. It has this block and not an inch of snow anywhere near us. It goes from this….



To this…



Yet no snow anywhere because of same reasons you mentioned. Not that I care what the model shows verbatim, just another example


.

I personally  dont  put alot of stock or faith into what any model shows 2 weeks out.  Hell models cant even get things right 72 hours out half the time lol. Just gotta wait to see how it evolves.. but any "winters cancelled" claims are just ridiculous  in last week of December especially  with 3 months left lol...  historically  In elnino years its usually  mid to late january before winter storms really start affecting  the east coast and mid Atlantic in earnest anyway! 

[winter_warlock]

4 minutes ago, snowfan said:

Damn. How young are you? BWIs current 10 year average is 16.7”, which is certainly not the lowest 10 yr avg in its reporting history. 10 year stretches in the 40/50s, 70s, 80s/90s all had lower averages. 

Every decade is different,  i  dont really go by any 10 year averages.  I go by the typical 30 year

[ldub23]

At  least the  ICON is close to somethng

 

 

[TSG]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

It may have been. If things go the way current guidance is hinting I will bust horribly. One of my worst fails ever!  But I’m not convinced it’s going that way yet. Im just being honest that I have more uncertainty than I did weeks ago.  Why wouldn’t I. For a time guidance supported my thoughts. Now it is universally in opposition. Unless I was in denial that has to be at least slightly concerning. 
 

The question is should I stick my head in the sand and pull a JB and just stay with a busted forecast no matter what the new evidence says?  I can just keep saying “it’s coming” until March no matter what. Or do I adapt based on the best available new evidence and accept when I was wrong?  

Said it 2 years ago and I'll say it again: It blows my mind how many non science-minded folks we have shouting their useless opinions on this forum these days. Go to banter or even better, Twitter, if you want to masturbatorily tell everyone their analysis or forecast is wrong (while offering no real counterpoint or useful critique). It's so effing weird and it's gotten worse the last 10 years with the "spread" of the internet. I'm starting to believe social media was a mistake.

And I share Bob's sentiment. There's some previously decent posters who have lost their marbles the last few years. We need a lot less "OMFG look at the GEFS #WinterCancelled" repeated ad nauseum every 6 hrs. Post's like Bob's latest used to be much more the norm. Not living or dying by the latest model runs, but taking days/weeks worth of output as a whole and drawing higher level conclusions until those features got into the medium range. Thank you @psuhoffman and @CAPE (and a few others) for being voices of reason in here when a lot of others have exited over the years.

That being said, my ignore list got a bit longer this morning

[SnowenOutThere]

19 minutes ago, snowfan said:

Damn. How young are you? BWIs current 10 year average is 16.7”, which is certainly not the lowest 10 yr avg in its reporting history. 10 year stretches in the 40/50s, 70s, 80s/90s all had lower averages. 

Well I’m old enough to get my license (I’m too scared to drive though) but not an adult yet. Putting me at the fun spot where the past 7 years of nothing winters makes up my memory of winters! That’s why I like PSU so much because he doesn’t sugarcoat the shit winters I’ve seen my whole life, you need to see our new climo for what it is not what it was. 

13 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

Every decade is different,  i  dont really go by any 10 year averages.  I go by the typical 30 year

I’m not anywhere close to 30 so what happened in 2002 doesnt matter much to me personally 

[Lowershoresadness]

13 minutes ago, TSG said:

Said it 2 years ago and I'll say it again: It blows my mind how many non science-minded folks we have shouting their useless opinions on this forum these days. Go to banter or even better, Twitter, if you want to masturbatorily tell everyone their analysis or forecast is wrong (while offering no real counterpoint or useful critique). It's so effing weird and it's gotten worse the last 10 years with the "spread" of the internet. I'm starting to believe social media was a mistake.

And I share Bob's sentiment. There's some previously decent posters who have lost their marbles the last few years. We need a lot less "OMFG look at the GEFS #WinterCancelled" repeated ad nauseum every 6 hrs. Post's like Bob's latest used to be much more the norm. Not living or dying by the latest model runs, but taking days/weeks worth of output as a whole and drawing higher level conclusions until those features got into the medium range. Thank you @psuhoffman for being a voice of reason in here when a lot of others have exited over the years.

That being said, my ignore list got a bit longer this morning

man, I knew I should have put masturbation on my winter bingo card

[Terpeast]

12z op gfs a step closer to a phase for jan 5. NS got way stronger and further S and W. End result is still suppressed, but continue this trend it may show a totally different solution 

[psuhoffman]

31 minutes ago, snowfan said:

Damn. How young are you? BWIs current 10 year average is 16.7”, which is certainly not the lowest 10 yr avg in its reporting history. 10 year stretches in the 40/50s, 70s, 80s/90s all had lower averages. 

I’m looking for a river in Egypt…what’s it called again. 

[snowfan]

4 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Well I’m old enough to get my license (I’m too scared to drive though) but not an adult yet. Putting me at the fun spot where the past 7 years of nothing winters makes up my memory of winters! That’s why I like PSU so much because he doesn’t sugarcoat the shit winters I’ve seen my whole life, you need to see our new climo for what it is not what it was. 

I’m not anywhere close to 30 so what happened in 2002 doesnt matter much to me personally 

On the bright side, you’ve lived through our snowiest winter ever (to date) and not far removed from a 3 yr stretch where Dulles (closest to you?) averaged 30”. That’s not too common. 

[snowfan]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I’m looking for a river in Egypt…what’s it called again. 

If there was anything incorrect in my post, feel free to state your position. 

[nj2va]

I wish the ICON ran beyond 180 to see the next few panels for the 1/6-7 threat.  Looked pretty good.

[Shad]

nice trend on the first event on the gfs.....this may lead to something more favorable for the 7th......

[Yeoman]

2 minutes ago, snowfan said:

On the bright side, you’ve lived through our snowiest winter ever (to date) and not far removed from a 3 yr stretch where Dulles (closest to you?) averaged 30”. That’s not too common. 

He's too scared to remember

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, snowfan said:

If there was anything incorrect in my post, feel free to state your position. 

Snowfall is chaotic and can be influenced by shorter and longer term cyclical patterns. If you cherry pick any one shorter scale time period it can be made to appear stochastic. But if you pull back and run the data through a regression the accurate picture is clear and conclusive. 
 

For example, if you compare a past hostile long wave regime like the early 1970s to a favorable one like the 2000s you can erroneously make it look like snowfall was increasing!  But if you compare that favorable regime in the 2000s to previous comparable patterns you see that while it was good it wasn’t as good. Inversely if you compare the hostile regime we are in now to the most similar comparable periods in the past you will see while those were bad this is worse.

[NorthArlington101]

GFS trying to be incoming at 192 - snow spreading up through VA. SW VA getting hammered.

[NorthArlington101]

[snowfan]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Snowfall is chaotic and can be influenced by shorter and longer term cyclical patterns. If you cherry pick any one shorter scale time period it can be made to appear stochastic. But if you pull back and run the data through a regression the accurate picture is clear and conclusive. 
 

For example, if you compare a past hostile long wave regime like the early 1970s to a favorable one like the 2000s you can erroneously make it look like snowfall was increasing!  But if you compare that favorable regime in the 2000s to previous comparable patterns you see that while it was good it wasn’t as good. Inversely if you compare the hostile regime we are in now to the most similar comparable periods in the past you will see while those were bad this is worse.

So there was nothing incorrect in my post? You just felt it necessary to make a subtle reference to climate change as you typically do. 
 

carry on everyone.

[rjvanals]

GFS is interesting for the 1/7 storm

[87storms]

It’s still December.

[NorthArlington101]

It gets shoved offshore, but makes it to us. @psuhoffman fringed to save the masses. 

[nj2va]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

No, wait let’s discuss if winter is actually over vs track an actual threat.

[PrinceFrederickWx]

The 10-year futility record at BWI was 14.3" which happened twice: 1947-48 to 1956-57 and again from 1968-69 to 1976-77. So @snowfan is correct.

However, if winter ended right now at BWI, we would have a new 10-year futility record of 12.8". In order to get above 14.3", BWI needs to score at least 15.7" this winter. So this year is essentially do-or-die.

Eta: this is 10-year average, not raw numbers.

[CAPE]

2 hours ago, North Balti Zen said:

He. Posted. That. Discussion. Off. The. WEEKLY CONTROL 

You heard it. That pattern can't work. Pray/root hard for a ++NAO.

[osfan24]

985 off of OC and hardly snowing, lol. Another way to fail I guess. At least it is a step in the right direction.

[Scraff]

January 7th for the win!  Plenty of time for it get better or worse. 

[SnowDreamer]

Someone who knows more than me... What the heck is the GFS doing here? It looks like the ULL gets split into two pieces and then the piece from the midwest nearly stalls the piece trying to ride up the coast as they get close to phasing back together?

[psuhoffman]

13 minutes ago, nj2va said:

I wish the ICON ran beyond 180 to see the next few panels for the 1/6-7 threat.  Looked pretty good.

For a small donation I could tell you how it ends…

jk

Based on the flow it had room to climb the coast I think at least enough to get DC into precip. Not sure what the pretty colors on the surface plot would show but I typically don’t pay that any attention at those ranges. 

[NorthArlington101]

On the other hand, the Canadian is a total whiff. Vort seems to get shredded as an LP forms over the plains. GFS did that too for the first time this run, but the coastal seemed to win out. Would be curious what smart people make of it.