Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming

[Terpeast]

5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Pretty close match to the EPS h5 look for that timeframe. More impressive -NAO signal on the EPS though.

 

Besides we want the aleutian low at the tip of the aleutians instead of GOA, because that’s where it takes residence during more moderate/modoki ninos. Ridging pokes northward into Alaska that brings more cold air into an undercutting STJ. That’s the path to winning (in late Jan & feb) and we’re not that far off. Of course it could go sideways in the process, but now’s not the time to cancel winter. Lowered expectations? Probably. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

8 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Pretty close match to the EPS h5 look for that timeframe. More impressive -NAO signal on the EPS though.

 

Pretty sure PSU said that isn't a -NAO but, well, you know....that feature that I'm just getting over a phobia from 

[CAPE]

35 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Pretty sure PSU said that isn't a -NAO but, well, you know....that feature that I'm just getting over a phobia from 

He is probably referring to this period when the trough digs into the central US and forces a ridge up into eastern Canada. The NAO ridge is established prior to that occurring though.

[Bob Chill]

Snow or not, guidance has destroyed the 7th window from 10+ days out so far. The shortwave has been focused on run after run for days on the ens. Maybe it ends up too warm, maybe it does nothing, or maybe it's our first decent snowfall of some kind. Not sure there yet as the ingredients are too sketchy to feel confident in any direction. But imho, heck of a lock-in for a modest shortwave. Gnarly ones are different (2010, 2016 etc). 

I don't understand the intense criticism of ens guidance. From the outside looking in, it really looks to me like some (too many) people equate "pattern change" with a snowfall or deep freeze date lol. That's insanity lol. Even when the pattern is solid it's still a hunt and peck to find something that can produce. 

It took an extra week (as usual) to get into something that "might snow". That's a mega fail? Lol. Long timers should know better and not act like rookies. I've only talked about the window around the 7th because I always mentally add a week to whatever long range is showing during a shift. I had some hopes of snow this week but I figured things would wallow around and they did. The best advice I can give a long range pattern flip tracker is always add a week once all d10-15 ens agree on the change. Your accuracy will improve greatly with long range guessing by doing this. Sometimes flips come flying in quick or on time and it's fine to follow that. Set strong expectations? Recipe for hurt feelings and awful posting. That's a fact lol. I have a lot of evidence in this thread to back it up. Lolx2

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

@psuhoffman 06z trended better in the long run. Aleutian ridge weaker, aleutian low looks like it wants to reload behind it. It’s just one run, so we’ll see. 

Yea we really need to see a trend like this in the next couple days. It’s one thing to get a temporary weak pac ridge but we need guidance to move away from building that super Nina ridge and getting the forcing stuck in the MC.  Once that sets up it can take weeks to break down and we don’t have that kind of time anymore. We’ll be bleeding away prime climo. Luckily it’s still far enough out adjustments are likely and I just can’t buy it. Maybe I don’t want too but that’s a strong Nina look in a strong Nino.  

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Pretty close match to the EPS h5 look for that timeframe. More impressive -NAO signal on the EPS though.

 

 

52 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Pretty sure PSU said that isn't a -NAO but, well, you know....that feature that I'm just getting over a phobia from 

That nao there won’t do us any good. It’s linked with the SER and acting as a WAR. Look

at hours 240-360 on the 0z gfs to see why that won’t work. An nao only helps if systems can cut under and through the 50/50 domain.  With the NS diving into the west and a SER (I’m convinced that ridge is also being amplified by more than just the pna, the gulf and Atlantic is on fire also) systems  will just cut up the west side of the nao ridge. That doesn’t help at all. If anything it makes it worse. Sometimes a +nao with a tpv in the nao domain can help to suppress one of those waves.
 

The nao will work in a -pna if there is split flow and ridging over the top in western Canada. That’s why I said we do not under any circumstances want a trough there and cold in western canada.  It’s a total myth that our path to snow is some kind of bleed southeast of cold. That works for the Midwest and sometimes places like central PA up Into northern New England. We are too far southeast.  We’ve only had one snowy winter in 75 years where a trough set up like that centered west of us and cold bled east and it took 2 incredibly anomalous features in conjunction to make that work. 
 

If we get to that look our path out would be for the Aleutian low to redevelop and create a split flow with the ridging into western Canada causing that trough to cut off and dump into the conus then cut under the block.  Until that happened any wave that amplified will cut and I don’t even think it would be particularly close. I don’t even like that look for places like state college pa. 

[psuhoffman]

The euro weekly control is a perfect example of why that won’t work. It matches that look day 15.

It goes on to cut storm after storm well west of us and gives DC less than 1” of snow through Feb 13th.  On the means we’re not that warm, only slightly above for the period, since we get really cold behind some of the cutters for a day or two. 
 

Im not sure in a Nino with an amplified STJ that can work. Yesterday I opined maybe it would help. But if we need strung out weak waves having a more amped up Stj just increases the odds of each wave being too amplified and cutting. 
 

We either need to get the ridge out of the central pac or have that nao retrograde into central Canada and dump the whole trough into the conus and pinwheel the pattern.  One of those has to happen for that to work imo. 

[Ji]

The euro weekly control is a perfect example of why that won’t work. It matches that look day 15.

It goes on to cut storm after storm well west of us and gives DC less than 1” of snow through Feb 13th.  On the means we’re not that warm, only slightly above for the period, since we get really cold behind some of the cutters for a day or two. 
 
Im not sure in a Nino with an amplified STJ that can work. Yesterday I opined maybe it would help. But if we need strung out weak waves having a more amped up Stj just increases the odds of each wave being too amplified and cutting. 
 
We either need to get the ridge out of the central pac or have that nao retrograde into central Canada and dump the whole trough into the conus and pinwheel the pattern.  One of those has to happen for that to work imo. 

Time of death: 913am Dec 30.

[North Balti Zen]

He. Posted. That. Discussion. Off. The. WEEKLY CONTROL 

[Ji]

He. Posted. That. Discussion. Off. The. WEEKLY CONTROL 

He was using it as an illustration of what could go wrong

[Heisy]

The euro weekly control is a perfect example of why that won’t work. It matches that look day 15.

It goes on to cut storm after storm well west of us and gives DC less than 1” of snow through Feb 13th.  On the means we’re not that warm, only slightly above for the period, since we get really cold behind some of the cutters for a day or two. 
 
Im not sure in a Nino with an amplified STJ that can work. Yesterday I opined maybe it would help. But if we need strung out weak waves having a more amped up Stj just increases the odds of each wave being too amplified and cutting. 
 
We either need to get the ridge out of the central pac or have that nao retrograde into central Canada and dump the whole trough into the conus and pinwheel the pattern.  One of those has to happen for that to work imo. 

Even look at last nights 00z euro control for another example. It has this block and not an inch of snow anywhere near us. It goes from this….



To this…



Yet no snow anywhere because of same reasons you mentioned. Not that I care what the model shows verbatim, just another example


.

[North Balti Zen]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

He was using it as an illustration of what could go wrong

Which you then turned into a declaration of winter cancel. 

[anotherman]

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

He. Posted. That. Discussion. Off. The. WEEKLY CONTROL 

You missed the point. The control matches the progression of the ensembles but it shows a more detailed example of how that pattern would likely play out.  It doesn’t have to go down that way. The snow mean on the weeklies isn’t bad. There are also some looks on the mean height field that to me indicate there is variance to how this progresses.  Some members quickly redevelop a pacific trough.  I said I don’t buy the disaster scenario yet. My point is root for that look to other adjust or be transient because that pattern above won’t end well if it locks in. 

[mappy]

15 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

He. Posted. That. Discussion. Off. The. WEEKLY CONTROL 

Friend, you’re wasting so much time and emotion on someone who isn’t worth it. Put him on ignore. 

[psuhoffman]

18 minutes ago, Ji said:

Time of death: 913am Dec 30.

You also missed the point.  I laid out two viable paths out of that to snowier patterns.  

[Ji]

Which you then turned into a declaration of winter cancel. 

Don’t worry . Mark Masgarbage recently
Issued this

[psuhoffman]

Funny no one complained when I used long range guidance in my analysis a few weeks ago because it looked great and I was predicting a lot of snow.  No one complained I was being repetitive when I said how great everything looked every run!

But now it’s a problem when it looks awful. My analysis is exactly the same. Some just like it when it favors snow and hate it when it doesn’t. 

[Ji]

You also missed the point.  I laid out two viable paths out of that to snowier patterns.  

It was a joke. But you are also working overtime to save a winter that never should need saving. This was suppose be what we have been waiting years for

[snowfan]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Funny no one complained when I used long range guidance in my analysis a few weeks ago because it looked great and I was predicting a lot of snow.  No one complained I was being repetitive when I said how great everything looked every run!

But now it’s a problem when it looks awful. My analysis is exactly the same. Some just like it when it favors snow and hate it when it doesn’t. 

Maybe your analysis was incorrect.

[psuhoffman]

18 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Even look at last nights 00z euro control for another example. It has this block and not an inch of snow anywhere near us. It goes from this….



To this…



Yet no snow anywhere because of same reasons you mentioned. Not that I care what the model shows verbatim, just another example


.

Yea unfortunately a block won’t do us any good if the trough is anchored in western Canada. That’s what I was trying to illustrate. We need that to get dislodged before anything good can come. There are ways to get there. It’s not hopeless. 

[mappy]

1 minute ago, snowfan said:

Maybe your analysis was incorrect.

 

[psuhoffman]

Just now, snowfan said:

Maybe your analysis was incorrect.

It may have been. If things go the way current guidance is hinting I will bust horribly. One of my worst fails ever!  But I’m not convinced it’s going that way yet. Im just being honest that I have more uncertainty than I did weeks ago.  Why wouldn’t I. For a time guidance supported my thoughts. Now it is universally in opposition. Unless I was in denial that has to be at least slightly concerning. 
 

The question is should I stick my head in the sand and pull a JB and just stay with a busted forecast no matter what the new evidence says?  I can just keep saying “it’s coming” until March no matter what. Or do I adapt based on the best available new evidence and accept when I was wrong?  

[Ralph Wiggum]

29 minutes ago, Ji said:

He was using it as an illustration of what could go wrong

We need another one of your late January maps with single digit temps and snow.

[North Balti Zen]

20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You missed the point. The control matches the progression of the ensembles but it shows a more detailed example of how that pattern would likely play out.  It doesn’t have to go down that way. The snow mean on the weeklies isn’t bad. There are also some looks on the mean height field that to me indicate there is variance to how this progresses.  Some members quickly redevelop a pacific trough.  I said I don’t buy the disaster scenario yet. My point is root for that look to other adjust or be transient because that pattern above won’t end well if it locks in. 

I didn’t miss the point  - Ji did. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Nina=shit the blinds

La Nada=snoozer

Nino will save us! 

Joking aside these episodes have always been known for mildish winters and 1 larger scale frozen event later in the season after a January warmup. At this point everything is fitting to a tee.

[psuhoffman]

15 minutes ago, Ji said:

It was a joke. But you are also working overtime to save a winter that never should need saving. This was suppose be what we have been waiting years for

Fair enough. But it doesn’t seem anyone is in the mood for the analysis or that joke. 

[IronTy]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

The question is should I stick my head in the sand and pull a JB and just stay with a busted forecast no matter what the new evidence says?  I can just keep saying “it’s coming” until March no matter what. Or do I adapt based on the best available new evidence and accept when I was wrong?  

JB has been lashing out at model runs recently which is always a bad sign.  And this morning in a post he laid the groundwork for his forecast fail.  "Just be glad you got to live through an epic period for snow storms".  This might actually be a good contrarian signal for us. 

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, IronTy said:

JB has been lashing out at model runs recently which is always a bad sign.  And this morning in a post he laid the groundwork for his forecast fail.  "Just be glad you got to live through an epic period for snow storms".  This might actually be a good contrarian signal for us. 

lol. The other day I watched one of his videos for the first time all season. I was curious. Given how awful a turn the guidance took and knowing his style I wanted to see how he was spinning it. Maybe I was hopeful he could make a rational argument I could believe why it was wrong.  I don’t want to be wrong either!  
 

One thing I took away was he kept referencing 1978. But that year adjusted for today’s warmer base state would have been a disaster. Almost all the snow we got here was marginal that winter from west track systems that only worked because of how extremely cold it was. I highly doubt that pattern would work out again. I was not impressed with his spin game. It left me less confident that I was before watching because he wasn’t making logical arguments I could agree with he as just lashing out and in denial.  That’s how it seemed to me anyways. 

[psuhoffman]

43 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Which you then turned into a declaration of winter cancel. 

 

15 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

I didn’t miss the point  - Ji did. 

You’re right I misunderstood what you were saying. Sorry. 

[psuhoffman]

The 7th still has potential but the wave needs more space. But it has to come from the back side not the front. RR you’re welcome. We need the 50/50 feature to offset the developing ridge over the top as the western trough develops.  That backing off just leads to rain. What we need is for the western trough to trend weaker or further west. A stronger SW initially would help too. 
 

After that I think a warm up is inevitable. I always felt that way. But there are paths to avoid it becoming a disaster. We need to see signs that the pac pattern will progress and not get stuck in Nina forcing.  We have the high latitude look we need now we just need the Nino look in the pac and it’s game on.  Not buying the Nina pattern locking in yet.  On to todays runs.