DarkSharkWX Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Why? Most El Nino's have a nasty +PNA by mid-January (historically), this usually correlates to an east coast trough. It seems like as things are happening "a lot of people expected it" since this is not a pure modoki nino and considering the warm SSTS in MC/IO as well as dateline, there will be periods of MC forcing(mid jan), u aren't going to get 4 months straight of favorable nino forcing in 8/1/2/3 in a basin wide nino 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I generally agree with your points but this chart isnt totally applicable because this is not an east based Nino. It's a basin wide nino. Look at my last post above at the current anomalies compared to two recent basin wide events. Nearly identical. webb counts basin wide events as EP, although they are different, basin wide events are considered EP in literature which is what he counts them as Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 2 minutes ago, Ji said: its almost impossible in this current climate not to get a HECS now at least every 6-7 years despite the crappy winters we have to endure between We will probably get a HECS this year but its going to age us by 40 years before we get there If we can get the pac to back off at all I think our chances are high still. I am acknowledging I am more nervous now than I was a month ago but I have by no means given up and put together my "time of death" winter call yet. I still think this works out. Just less sure than I was. As for the age thing...yea its frustrating but I can compartmentalize. I come on here, track, kill time, and in the moment when I analyze and dont see what I want its frustrating...then I log off and go do other stuff and it doesn't affect me at all. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 27 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Cascades and Canada. Brian Brettschneder shared this on twitter last year. It's pretty bleak. The positive anomalies along the east coast are due to all those HECS storms from 1996 to 2016. The median is tanking here though for sure and if we don't get another HECS soon that blue will disappear, might have already given the last season isn't factored into that. I'm not one to give up on snow. It seems like a lot more precipitation is happening, and the possibility for stronger storms. I always thought 09-10 was a step in this direction. You see how on the coast the trend is actually upward. I think the -PNA is the real problem, and that even held in a lot of the early 2000s when we were doing well with snowfall. https://ibb.co/2csFL89 As the pattern relaxes, low's are energized not inland, but off the coast over the water, and the early 2000s were filled with examples of this, where they would track just right off the coast. I don't see that trend as disappearing, I just think it has been a very -PNA for 7 years. In the later part of a -PNA cycle, SE ridges are more dominant. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Andrew Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: If we can get the pac to back off at all I think our chances are high still. I am acknowledging I am more nervous now than I was a month ago but I have by no means given up and put together my "time of death" winter call yet. I still think this works out. Just less sure than I was. As for the age thing...yea its frustrating but I can compartmentalize. I come on here, track, kill time, and in the moment when I analyze and dont see what I want its frustrating...then I log off and go do other stuff and it doesn't affect me at all. Wonder if this will be a 1983 winter redux? Largely mild temps throughout January and February but just enough cold air to allow for monster Megalopolitan snowstorm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 3 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said: webb counts basin wide events as EP, although they are different, basin wide events are considered EP in literature which is what he counts them as Yes but a basin wide event like 2003, 2010, and 2016 is significantly more favorable for us historically than a more east based event like 1998 or 2007. By including them with the pure east based events it skews the data imo. Pure east based Nino's are pretty bad but this is clearly NOT that. It's not a pure modoki but frankly I see little distinction between the modoki and basin wide. There are some that have mistakenly characterized basin wide as modoki. 2015 and 2005 were pure modoki seasons and 2003, 2010, and 2016 were snowier on average in the mid atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 5 minutes ago, Jersey Andrew said: Wonder if this will be a 1983 winter redux? Largely mild temps throughout January and February but just enough cold air to allow for monster Megalopolitan snowstorm. Look at the December 1982 SST anomalies. That was one of the most east based nino's ever. I would think we should get a more prolonged favorable pattern. That year was similar to 1998 except we got just cold enough at just exactly the right time to get one of the precip bombs to be snow. Again, if this season fails its not because of enso. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 21 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Cascades and Canada. Brian Brettschneder shared this on twitter last year. It's pretty bleak. The positive anomalies along the east coast are due to all those HECS storms from 1996 to 2016. The median is tanking here though for sure and if we don't get another HECS soon that blue will disappear, might have already given the last season isn't factored into that. This map doesn't seem to be correct. All 3 of Buffalo, Rochester, and Syracuse averages went up when in latest 30 yr averages. The old averages were 1981-2010 with the new being 1991-2020 https://www.weather.gov/buf/newnormals New 30 Year Climate Normals (1991 - 2020) Buffalo: 94.7" to 95.4" Rochester: 99.5" to 102" Syracuse: 123.8" to 127.8" With this being said Rochester and Syracuse have had some of the worst winters in their history the last few years and when the new 30 yr climo norms come out they likely decrease quite a bit. Buffalo has had 2 consecutive above average snowfall yrs. I contribute that to mainly luck as we are a big snowfall climo with lake effect snow events. Some interesting data below 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: This map doesn't seem to be correct. All 3 of Buffalo, Rochester, and Syracuse averages went up when in latest 30 yr averages. The old averages were 1981-2010 with the new being 1991-2020 https://www.weather.gov/buf/newnormals New 30 Year Climate Normals (1991 - 2020) Buffalo: 94.7" to 95.4" Rochester: 99.5" to 102" Syracuse: 123.8" to 127.8" With this being said Rochester and Syracuse have had some of the worst winters in their history the last few years and when the new 30 yr climo norms come out they likely decrease quite a bit. Buffalo has had 2 consecutive above average snowfall yrs. I contribute that to mainly luck as we are a big snowfall climo with lake effect snow events. Some interesting data below I think his data is running a 50 year regression not using the 30 year averages, plus its possible those were localized anomalies due the lake effect that might not show up on that coarse map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 Just now, psuhoffman said: I think his data is running a 50 year regression not using the 30 year averages, plus its possible those were localized anomalies due the lake effect that might not show up on that coarse map. The 1970s were a very snowy decade almost everywhere. Once that data is excluded the regression isn't as bad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: If we can get the pac to back off at all I think our chances are high still. I am acknowledging I am more nervous now than I was a month ago but I have by no means given up and put together my "time of death" winter call yet. I still think this works out. Just less sure than I was. As for the age thing...yea its frustrating but I can compartmentalize. I come on here, track, kill time, and in the moment when I analyze and dont see what I want its frustrating...then I log off and go do other stuff and it doesn't affect me at all. I'n your opinion, what is our most realistic path for success here? IF (a very big if), the MJO doesn't get stuck in the MC, then it seems like it might get back the good phases right in that late Jan early Feb Nino sweet spot. Seems like that is at least a decent hope? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Again, if this season fails its not because of enso. Yeah, I don't think this is because it's an east or west-based Nino https://ibb.co/yQxk7bS 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 2 minutes ago, cbmclean said: I'n your opinion, what is our most realistic path for success here? IF (a very big if), the MJO doesn't get stuck in the MC, then it seems like it might get back the good phases right in that late Jan early Feb Nino sweet spot. Seems like that is at least a decent hope? IMO our best hope is that as the MJO progresses (if) back into the central pacific it kicks the ridge out and we re-establish a trough near the Aleutians. Then we would get a split flow with the western energy cutting under the block into the east. The timing of that is now betting pushed back towards February though realistically. That's still plenty of time though...for anyone still left alive after the blood bath this place will turn into by then! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Yeah, I don't think this is because it's an east or west-based Nino https://ibb.co/yQxk7bS What's sobering, and I already knew about that look...4 of the top 5 analogs to that pattern didn't go anywhere good and lead to total dreg seasons. It's not a look you want to F with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: The 1970s were a very snowy decade almost everywhere. Once that data is excluded the regression isn't as bad. They were not snowy at all here. What I think the data on the whole shows if you dig in and really analyze it...places further north and colder are seeing their means increase. Burlington VT for example...and even some places that have been JUST far enough north to take advantage of the stormier base state. Philly and NYC. But there is a stark line near 40 where south of there snowfall is tanking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 We got blue on the GFS for the 1/7 storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 00z CMC saves winter on Jan 7 3 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 2 for 2 so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 2 for 2 so farA little of the CMC up in your parts is actually on Jan 4 too. 2.5/2 so far - kinda Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 Blue! What a great day 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 Wait, isn’t it more fun if PSU tells us why it’ll never snow again here? 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: A little of the CMC up in your parts is actually on Jan 4 too. 2.5/2 so far - kinda Let me ask this...why do we give the CMC any credence? It's always biased cold, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Let me ask this...why do we give the CMC any credence? It's always biased cold, lol It gives us the most snow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: 00z CMC saves winter on Jan 7 best part is it fringes me 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 Let me ask this...why do we give the CMC any credence? It's always biased cold, lolPeople always claim it’s better than the GFS when you look at verification scores. We certainly don’t treat it that way, though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 5 minutes ago, nj2va said: Wait, isn’t it more fun if PSU tells us why it’ll never snow again here? I predicted 30-40" of snow this year. people hear what they want to hear. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 Seems like a better first storm is better for the 2nd storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: A little of the CMC up in your parts is actually on Jan 4 too. 2.5/2 so far - kinda I know...if it wasnt so far out I would even dig into the fact its wrong in fringing me based on the surface and upper level locations but whatever. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 GOA ridge, WC trough, ridge overtop here in the east.. no way. bluewave posted something where most of our snows since 09-10 have happened with a ridge in the West as the most dominate N. Hemisphere feature (for NYC at least). 00x CMC fails the Chuck test I think if I remember how it was explained earlier. Think it goes 3/3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 ICON would've snowed too damn, what made the 0z models change sm? sampling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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