Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming

[Ji]

It is what it is.  I've seen troubling signs that have started to make me a little nervous regarding my expectations for this winter for a while now.  But I tried to keep it on the down low because I knew what the reaction would be.  Unfortunately I've been on here way too long and everyone knows my tells, and I am not particularly good at hiding my thoughts.  
I am not convinced it's all going sideways yet.  There is time to pull out of this.  Maybe, just maybe, the pacific ridge is temporary and we simply can't see past it yet.  I did think that honestly and still think its a strong possibility.  But the amplitude of that ridge is starting to really go ape on the long range guidance, and the forcing is getting stuck in the MC again like the last few years.  Frankly I am seeing a lot of similarities to what happened in 2019 and it bothers me.  We did "OK" wrt snowfall that year but a lot of that came early in January during a flux in the pattern, once the pacific ridge set in it was pretty crappy the rest of the winter.  
The euro is better but honestly I don't love where its trending either.  I think your weeklies post was legit and I don't know why so many took issue with it.  The weeklies for a long time showed the pattern we wanted setting in by late December.  Then it pushed it to mid January.  And now its punting January but has that look in February.  That pattern disturbs me, its exactly what happened in 2019.  I know the running theory, and I fully bought into it also so I am at fault here too, was that the issue was the nino was too weak.  But what if the issue has nothing to do with enso and we are trying to mitigate something with other things when the only solution is for the root cause to stop which is more rooted in the pattern AROUND enso not enso itself!  

Were the season models in 2019 similar to 2023? It’s amazing how they have been so deadly accurate for the easy part…the warm and wet December. Now when we need them to stay on course they are starting to fall apart

Very discouraging. I’ll give it a few days. Sometimes there are hiccups but in this age…you have to be super skeptical

If we don’t snow this winter….hooheh boy. Bob chill has already fled

[WesternFringe]

So, the Geese Index is high right now.   And there is a 2-3 week delay in its effect on snowy weather, sort of like SSW events.  Got it!  
 

In all seriousness, I am focused on the ensembles and the 7th.  Would be nice to get everyone on the board, even if it isn’t the MECS, HECS, or the KU that some in here are hunting.

[Ji]

I wonder if we really needed a super super nino. Is the low mei that was discussed for a while now coming back to haunt us. We are in a favorable mjo phase. Ao is negative…nao is negative ….

Are we done? lol

[DarkSharkWX]

7 minutes ago, Ji said:

Were the season models in 2019 similar to 2023? It’s amazing how they have been so deadly accurate for the easy part…the warm and wet December. Now when we need them to stay on course they are starting to fall apart

Very discouraging. I’ll give it a few days. Sometimes there are hiccups but in this age…you have to be super skeptical

If we don’t snow this winter….hooheh boy. Bob chill has already fled

you do realize a mid jan warmup was expected by most right? i understand the angst about early jan(assuming it fails) but a warm/wet dec and a transitionary jan was generally expected

i wouldnt be too surprised if we see a 2016 type scenario where its just too warm w the airmasses for early jan and then the snowcover/cold rebuilds in mid jan for late jan and onwards, this is progressing as expected imo 

[DarkSharkWX]

Just now, Ji said:

I wonder if we really needed a super super nino. Is the low mei that was discussed for a while now coming back to haunt us. We are in a favorable mjo phase. Ao is negative…nao is negative ….

Are we done? lol

its really not that deep, the MJO is going to return to unfavorable phases(4/5/6) and therefore it retracts the jet

thus, we see the western trough/slight eastern ridge pattern setting up along with an -NAO(will prevent us from being super warm)
 

and as for concerns about slowed IO forcing, thats just going to be a byproduct of a weakening +IOD increasing convection in that area, we will eventually make it to 8/1/2, 30C+ ssts remain in both MC/IO and dateline

[Ji]

you do realize a mid jan warmup was expected by most right? i understand the angst about early jan(assuming it fails) but a warm/wet dec and a transitionary jan was generally expected

i wouldnt be too surprised if we see a 2016 type scenario where its just too warm w the airmasses for early jan and then the snowcover/cold rebuilds in mid jan for late jan and onwards, this is progressing as expected imo 

Then someone should have just said that there be no winter till January 25.

You can’t have a mid month warmup when it’s too warm to snow in the early month and the previous month

Absurd.

[Rvarookie]

@psuhoffmansolid posts man. I’m sure not all will strike right balance but nice to get the macro view 

[DarkSharkWX]

6 minutes ago, Ji said:

Then someone should have just said that there be no winter till January 25.

You can’t have a mid month warmup when it’s too warm to snow in the early month and the previous month

Absurd.

did u forget the T-3"+ event we had in early dec, and early jan is still not determined yet wrt to Jan 7th(8 days out) 

most people's forecasts are going as expected right now
any concern for late jan onwards won't be nina forcing/type pattern but rather if jet gets overextended again

ur just going to have to be patient

[Ji]

Anyone who says the pattern is progressing like they thought it simply lying to themselves. Nobody at this time last month would of said the first 3 events of January would lean rain

Anyway let’s give it till January 1 before we torch the place down. No pun intended!

[Ji]

did u forget the T-3"+ event we had in early dec, and early jan is still not determined yet wrt to Jan 7th(8 days out) 

most people's forecasts are going as expected right now
any concern for late jan onwards won't be nina forcing/type pattern but rather if jet gets overextended again

ur just going to have to be patient

The t3 was a fluke in a bad pattern on the heels of 60 degree stormFor most people’s forecast to now to verify we are going to need 2 blizzards most likely lol

[DarkSharkWX]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

The t3 was a fluke in a bad pattern on the heels of 60 degree stormFor most people’s forecast to now to verify we are going to need 2 blizzards most likely lol

jan 7th isnt even determined yet lmfao, and u cant say for sure that we wont get lucky again during mid jan or earlier/later even if the pattern is bad, the pattern was absolutely horrible for dec 11th and there was a decent area of 1-3"+ for parts dc metro 

this seems to be following this very well rn 

[WinterFire]

14 minutes ago, Ji said:

Then someone should have just said that there be no winter till January 25.

You can’t have a mid month warmup when it’s too warm to snow in the early month and the previous month

Absurd.

Holy shit are you serious? So many people said this, you just cherry-picked the data you wanted to look at to get the results you wanted. Moron. 

[Ji]

jan 7th isnt even determined yet lmfao, and u cant say for sure that we wont get lucky again during mid jan or earlier/later even if the pattern is bad, the pattern was absolutely horrible for dec 11th and there was a decent area of 1-3"+ for parts dc metro 

this seems to be following this very well rn 

The 7th on paper should be a slam dunk based on where we thought the pattern was headed

Now we are praying a Hail Mary for a wintry mix.

[Ji]

Holy shit are you serious? So many people said this, you just cherry-picked the data you wanted to look at to get the results you wanted. Moron. 

No moron. Nobody said this. Everyone said the best of our winter would be between late January and February.

That’s different from winter would start in late January

[DarkSharkWX]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

The 7th on paper should be a slam dunk based on where we thought the pattern was headed

Now we are praying a Hail Mary for a wintry mix.

not really, the lack of true cold air was underestimated yes but there is enough cold air for it to work, even if marginal

you just cant make defintive conclusions when its 8 days out and it can trend either way 

the pattern itself is pretty decent for something, getting cold air is possible but its gonna have to depend on some luck

thread the needle but its def possible

[psuhoffman]

30 minutes ago, Ji said:

Were the season models in 2019 similar to 2023? It’s amazing how they have been so deadly accurate for the easy part…the warm and wet December. Now when we need them to stay on course they are starting to fall apart

Very discouraging. I’ll give it a few days. Sometimes there are hiccups but in this age…you have to be super skeptical

If we don’t snow this winter….hooheh boy. Bob chill has already fled

Yes, back in 2019 they teased us with a constant epic -nao eastern trough look that was forever 20 days away. Sometimes it would get as close as day 12 or so then suddenly morph into the -pna look and we were back to day 20. We kept falling for it through December and early Jan. Then when they did one more rug pull mid January was when I think we all caught on. The weeklies continued to tease the good pattern day 20+ through Feb but we started to ignore it by then. It never came to fruiting. The Nina base state kept shifting it towards the pna TNH pattern. 

[psuhoffman]

26 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said:

its really not that deep, the MJO is going to return to unfavorable phases(4/5/6) and therefore it retracts the jet

thus, we see the western trough/slight eastern ridge pattern setting up along with an -NAO(will prevent us from being super warm)
 

and as for concerns about slowed IO forcing, thats just going to be a byproduct of a weakening +IOD increasing convection in that area, we will eventually make it to 8/1/2, 30C+ ssts remain in both MC/IO and dateline

Thanks for this. Our best hope is still when the mjo cycles back to 8/1/2. Just a thought that was in the back of my mind but I kept to myself because I didn’t want to contradict my forecast or start a shitstorm but since the thread is a total disaster now anyways… what if the warmer pacific has set up a no win scenario when a jet extension floods the continent with pac puke but a jet retraction leads to a super pac ridge which creates a deep -pna. Neither works for us. 

[WinterFire]

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

No moron. Nobody said this. Everyone said the best of our winter would be between late January and February.

That’s different from winter would start in late January

Yeah except that the monthlies—that were discussed *extensively* here and elsewhere through the end of November—were pretty much uniform in showing a torch December, transitional January, and a killer February. That’s what all the guidance showed, that’s what most experts discussed, and that’s where you and so many other people would have landed if you weren’t intent on wishcasting a Modoki/CP-based Nino that never existed. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Pretty strong Stratosphere warming already happening in the historical CDC daily dataset

https://ibb.co/MRc03C6

The average time-lag of 500mb -NAO effects is +25-30 days, so that give us ~Jan 19-24 as the start of probable -NAO conditions.  Here is how the NAO correlates to US temperatures [default positive]:

https://ibb.co/S0rqMcL

Believe it or not, the Jan 19th date matches exactly when my roll forward Jan 5-13 N. Pacific ridge in ENSO changes/reverses and becomes a +PNA/colder pattern (2 different variables in different region). So I would watch maybe Jan 21st on as a possibility to go colder, and have a wintery period in the east. 

[87storms]

FWIW...LWX thinks higher elevations are in the game for next week (which is a step in the right direction if you're a winterista)...

Another low may impact the area Wednesday night and Thursday. Most
guidance is showing more southern stream energy with this system,
but a split flow (suggesting it will not phase completely). With
more southern stream energy and moisture, this may bring more
widespread precipitation to the area. However, uncertainty in the
track remains so chance pops are in the forecast for now. As for
rain vs snow, there will be colder and drier air in place ahead of
the system but there is not much (if any) of a high to the north to
reinforce the colder air. Therefore, warm advection may cause most
areas to be rain with chances for snow higher in the higher
elevations. Will continue to monitor. High pressure will most likely
return late next week.

[psuhoffman]

9 minutes ago, WinterFire said:

Yeah except that the monthlies—that were discussed *extensively* here and elsewhere through the end of November—were pretty much uniform in showing a torch December, transitional January, and a killer February. That’s what all the guidance showed, that’s what most experts discussed, and that’s where you and so many other people would have landed if you weren’t intent on wishcasting a Modoki/CP-based Nino that never existed. 

Nobody and I mean NOBODY said this was a Modoki/CP nino.  It is a basin wide though NOT east based like some of the warminista crew is trying to classify.  By far the two best matches wrt the composition (not the strength but WHERE the anomalies are located) are Dec 2009 and 2015.  2009 was weaker and 2015 was stronger but both were almost identical in terms of the way the enso anomalies were situated. And both featured a reasonably cold January in the east, or at least some pretty good periods.   If this season goes off the rails it wont be because of enso, it will be because of other factors.  

Now

Dec 2015

Dec 2009

[psuhoffman]

39 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said:

jan 7th isnt even determined yet lmfao, and u cant say for sure that we wont get lucky again during mid jan or earlier/later even if the pattern is bad, the pattern was absolutely horrible for dec 11th and there was a decent area of 1-3"+ for parts dc metro 

this seems to be following this very well rn 

I generally agree with your points but this chart isnt totally applicable because this is not an east based Nino.  It's a basin wide nino.  Look at my last post above at the current anomalies compared to two recent basin wide events.  Nearly identical. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Does anyone know which areas of the country are averaging AN snowfall as an avg over the past 5 years? Asking for a friend  that is looking to move.

[psuhoffman]

36 minutes ago, WinterFire said:

Holy shit are you serious? So many people said this, you just cherry-picked the data you wanted to look at to get the results you wanted. Moron. 

came in like a bull in a china shop eh

[Kevin Reilly]

5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Does anyone know which areas of the country are averaging AN snowfall as an avg over the past 5 years? Asking for a friend  that is looking to move.

Lake Tahoe

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Does anyone know which areas of the country are averaging AN snowfall as an avg over the past 5 years? Asking for a friend  that is looking to move.

Cascades and Canada.

Brian Brettschneder shared this on twitter last year.  It's pretty bleak.  The positive anomalies along the east coast are due to all those HECS storms from 1996 to 2016.  The median is tanking here though for sure and if we don't get another HECS soon that blue will disappear, might have already given the last season isn't factored into that. 

[Ji]

27 minutes ago, WinterFire said:

Yeah except that the monthlies—that were discussed *extensively* here and elsewhere through the end of November—were pretty much uniform in showing a torch December, transitional January, and a killer February. That’s what all the guidance showed, that’s what most experts discussed, and that’s where you and so many other people would have landed if you weren’t intent on wishcasting a Modoki/CP-based Nino that never existed. 

What does a transitional January even mean? We need a whole month to transition to a snowy pattern in February? I did see the seasonals and they had enough cold and precip in January that a 10 inch month was fairly reasonable. January was not super cold on the seasonal...but it was cold enough. In fact...the whole seasonal wasnt not cold..it was just could enough

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 hour ago, DarkSharkWX said:

you do realize a mid jan warmup was expected by most right? 

Why? Most El Nino's have a nasty +PNA by mid-January (historically), this usually correlates to an east coast trough. It seems like as things are happening "a lot of people expected it"

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

What does a transitional January even mean? We need a whole month to transition to a snowy pattern in February? I did see the seasonals and they had enough cold and precip in January that a 10 inch month was fairly reasonable. January was not super cold on the seasonal...but it was cold enough. In fact...the whole seasonal wasnt not cold..it was just could enough

He is trolling you, not worth it. 

[Ji]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Cascades and Canada.

Brian Brettschneder shared this on twitter last year.  It's pretty bleak.  The positive anomalies along the east coast are due to all those HECS storms from 1996 to 2016.  The median is tanking here though for sure and if we don't get another HECS soon that blue will disappear, might have already given the last season isn't factored into that. 

its almost impossible in this current climate not to get a HECS now at least every 6-7 years despite the crappy winters we have to endure between

We will probably get a HECS this year but its going to age us by 40 years before we get there