Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming

[Ji]

1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

?  There is low in the gulf high to the north and 50/50 low…cmon man

its one random run of the OP but nobody thought they would see a map like this on Jan 8

[Maestrobjwa]

2 hours ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

According to CWG the prime time for snow in the beltway area is between MLK day and President's day.

Indeed--!lways has been! All but maybe 4 of our biggest storms have fallen in that time frame.

[osfan24]

18 minutes ago, CAPE said:

For those who look at the 18z GFS and think it is a crap run verbatim (Hi Ji), remember it is a single op run and we are still 8 + days out from the initial window of interest. Look at the big picture at h5- the shortwaves are on the playing field, rolling across the southern US, while the HL look is favorable(note the oranges/ reds in the right places). We just can't know the details yet.

I mean, come on. We don't think it was a crap run. We know it was a crap run. Like you said, it is just one run of the op so it's not a big deal. That said, I am starting to wonder a bit about whether the first two weeks of January are going to pan out like we thought or not. It's fine for now with the crappy op runs because the period of interest is really probably still in the 10-15 day range, but we flip the calendar to 2024 come Monday. If we don't start seeing some op runs show something come early next week, it's probably time to wonder if this period isn't toast.

I also remember last year how the op never really showed much but the ensembles always seemed to keep hope alive, and we all know how that turned out. Could the same thing be happening again?

[stormy]

5 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

I mean, come on. We don't think it was a crap run. We know it was a crap run. Like you said, it is just one run of the op so it's not a big deal. That said, I am starting to wonder a bit about whether the first two weeks of January are going to pan out like we thought or not. It's fine for now with the crappy op runs because the period of interest is really probably still in the 10-15 day range, but we flip the calendar to 2024 come Monday. If we don't start seeing some op runs show something come early next week, it's probably time to wonder if this period isn't toast.

I also remember last year how the op never really showed much but the ensembles always seemed to keep hope alive, and we all know how that turned out. Could the same thing be happening again?

The historic Jan. 66 blast didn't begin until Jan. 22.    During the next 2 weeks we had nearly 40 inches of snow.  Everybody needs to settle down and be patient!

[Maestrobjwa]

9 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

I mean, come on. We don't think it was a crap run. We know it was a crap run. Like you said, it is just one run of the op so it's not a big deal. That said, I am starting to wonder a bit about whether the first two weeks of January are going to pan out like we thought or not. It's fine for now with the crappy op runs because the period of interest is really probably still in the 10-15 day range, but we flip the calendar to 2024 come Monday. If we don't start seeing some op runs show something come early next week, it's probably time to wonder if this period isn't toast.

I also remember last year how the op never really showed much but the ensembles always seemed to keep hope alive, and we all know how that turned out. Could the same thing be happening again?

We don't know. Better to just watch and not assume the worst. (Or better yet maybe not watch too closely until mid Jan). The better thing about this year as opposed to last is that this is a Niño. So we can't just say it won't work out because of what happened last year. Niños past have taken time (usually to mid-Jan at the earliest) to flip more favorable. So we legit just don't know what it's gonna look like...so may as well just watch, lol

[snowfan]

9 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

I mean, come on. We don't think it was a crap run. We know it was a crap run. Like you said, it is just one run of the op so it's not a big deal. That said, I am starting to wonder a bit about whether the first two weeks of January are going to pan out like we thought or not. It's fine for now with the crappy op runs because the period of interest is really probably still in the 10-15 day range, but we flip the calendar to 2024 come Monday. If we don't start seeing some op runs show something come early next week, it's probably time to wonder if this period isn't toast.

I also remember last year how the op never really showed much but the ensembles always seemed to keep hope alive, and we all know how that turned out. Could the same thing be happening again?

Two things can be correct….1) the next 1-2 weeks may be boring and 2) there is still plenty of winter left. 

[Ji]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

We don't know. Better to just watch and not assume the worst. (Or better yet maybe not watch too closely until mid Jan). The better thing about this year as opposed to last is that this is a Niño. So we can't just say it won't work out because of what happened last year. Niños past have taken time (usually to mid-Jan at the earliest) to flip more favorable. So we legit just don't know what it's gonna look like...so may as well just watch, lol

you cant have a epic winter if you get no snow from Dec to Mid January. YOu can have epic storm or epic month but i think the epic winter stuff now is not likely to happen

[CAPE]

9 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

I mean, come on. We don't think it was a crap run. We know it was a crap run. Like you said, it is just one run of the op so it's not a big deal. That said, I am starting to wonder a bit about whether the first two weeks of January are going to pan out like we thought or not. It's fine for now with the crappy op runs because the period of interest is really probably still in the 10-15 day range, but we flip the calendar to 2024 come Monday. If we don't start seeing some op runs show something come early next week, it's probably time to wonder if this period isn't toast.

I also remember last year how the op never really showed much but the ensembles always seemed to keep hope alive, and we all know how that turned out. Could the same thing be happening again?

Some of y'all would be better off never looking at an op run at range. Seriously.

 

[Ji]

5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Some of y'all would be better off never looking at an op run at range. Seriously.

 

done!

 

[Terpeast]

I’ll say this. 

I’m not canceling winter and as long as we’re in a nino, I’ll never cancel it. Even if it means ‘winter’ will only be a one and done 18”+ storm. 

However, I think if we get to Jan 1 and guidance shows nothing of note through the 15th, it will at that point be safe to say that a 2009-10 or 2002-03 blockbuster is definitely off the table.

We may get a 2014-15 or 65-66 style ending, though. So at that point, I’ll probably downgrade my outlook to 15-30” instead of 20-40” areawide (not including my DCA siting penalty). We can easily get 15-30” in one storm.

ofc I’ll grade my outlook based on my original forecast, so it’s probably not going to earn an A. 

[aldie 22]

6 minutes ago, Ji said:

you cant have a epic winter if you get no snow from Dec to Mid January. YOu can have epic storm or epic month but i think the epic winter stuff now is not likely to happen

97-98

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

you cant have a epic winter if you get no snow from Dec to Mid January. YOu can have epic storm or epic month but i think the epic winter stuff now is not likely to happen

You also can't be picky either. If 2009-10 or 95-96 was your minimum, you won't be happy even if we get an epic storm that gives us more than we've gotten in a storm since 2016. I'd suggest considering the last 7 years and adjust your gratitude for what we get accordingly.

[CAPE]

9 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Some of y'all would be better off never looking at an op run at range. Seriously.

 

Is this a bad look on the 18z GEFS?

This is the look on the 18z GFS operational at h5, same time. Apparently bad though. Some of you need to do better, or stay in the damn panic thread and moan. 

 

[WVclimo]

19 minutes ago, stormy said:

The historic Jan. 66 blast didn't begin until Jan. 22.    During the next 2 weeks we had nearly 40 inches of snow.  Everybody needs to settle down and be patient!

1987 had its first snow on January 22 also, and DCA ended the season with 30”+.  Same date in 2016 as well.

 

[snowfan]

4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Is this a bad look on the 18z GEFS?

This is the look on the 18z GFS operational at h5, same time. Apparently bad though. Some of you need to do better, or stay in the damn panic thread and moan. 

 

No, not bad. But the surface….verbatim….is meh for now. Emphasis on for now. 

[Kevin Reilly]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

Did anyone notice the 12z euro? I know it’s the op run, but look

Cold high up top, gulf low brewing. It’s a miss, but it’s close. 

Just need that high to be north of New York State can we manage that at this lead?  It would be the first time in a while and I am sure the models would have no idea what do with that.  The Models would be like "Oh Shit look a cold high!"

[Heisy]

Is this a bad look on the 18z GEFS?


This is the look on the 18z GFS operational at h5, same time. Apparently bad though. Some of you need to do better, or stay in the damn panic thread and moan. 

 

This storm has major issues I think. We don’t snow with Lps in the lakes. There’s no cold
Press out ahead of it. Just that cutoff low that doesn’t really do anything. The mean is skewed by what Psu mentioned earlier imo. Warm and wet chilly and dry, there’s a reason the snow mean is putrid up to this point. Hope it changes but not feeling great


.

[Ji]

Is this a bad look on the 18z GEFS?


This is the look on the 18z GFS operational at h5, same time. Apparently bad though. Some of you need to do better, or stay in the damn panic thread and moan. 

 

You do know the op comes before the ensembles.

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, snowfan said:

No, not bad. But the surface….verbatim….is meh for now. Emphasis on for now. 

Interpretation of an ens mean vs an op run is a bit of a skill.. defo nuanced.

[Jebman]

10 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

1987 had its first snow on January 22 also, and DCA ended the season with 30”+.  Same date in 2016 as well.

 

Yeah there is definitely something about that Jan 22 date.

[CAPE]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

You do know the op comes before the ensembles.

I'm not sure you understand the fundamental purpose of the ensembles. Pretty sure you don't. You could google it. 

[CAPE]

11 minutes ago, Heisy said:

This storm has major issues I think. We don’t snow with Lps in the lakes. There’s no cold
Press out ahead of it. Just that cutoff low that doesn’t really do anything. The mean is skewed by what Psu mentioned earlier imo. Warm and wet chilly and dry, there’s a reason the snow mean is putrid up to this point. Hope it changes but not feeling great


.

I find little value in snowfall maps on an ens mean 8+ days out. Still trying to glean the general idea.

[Kevin Reilly]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

wow wasnt expecting this the deep into the first week of January. that is not a pattern change. Hopefully the GFS is lost

It often is in the long range or what that the old GFS?

[Kevin Reilly]

49 minutes ago, snowfan said:

Two things can be correct….1) the next 1-2 weeks may be boring and 2) there is still plenty of winter left. 

Last I checked most of our snow climatologically speaking falls January 15th to March 2nd or so.

[Ji]

I'm not sure you understand the fundamental purpose of the ensembles. Pretty sure you don't. You could google it. 

Ok I’ll google it. Thank you for the heads up

[Kevin Reilly]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

I’ll say this. 

I’m not canceling winter and as long as we’re in a nino, I’ll never cancel it. Even if it means ‘winter’ will only be a one and done 18”+ storm. 

However, I think if we get to Jan 1 and guidance shows nothing of note through the 15th, it will at that point be safe to say that a 2009-10 or 2002-03 blockbuster is definitely off the table.

We may get a 2014-15 or 65-66 style ending, though. So at that point, I’ll probably downgrade my outlook to 15-30” instead of 20-40” areawide (not including my DCA siting penalty). We can easily get 15-30” in one storm.

ofc I’ll grade my outlook based on my original forecast, so it’s probably not going to earn an A. 

You missed one 1995-1996

[Kevin Reilly]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

I’ll say this. 

I’m not canceling winter and as long as we’re in a nino, I’ll never cancel it. Even if it means ‘winter’ will only be a one and done 18”+ storm. 

However, I think if we get to Jan 1 and guidance shows nothing of note through the 15th, it will at that point be safe to say that a 2009-10 or 2002-03 blockbuster is definitely off the table.

We may get a 2014-15 or 65-66 style ending, though. So at that point, I’ll probably downgrade my outlook to 15-30” instead of 20-40” areawide (not including my DCA siting penalty). We can easily get 15-30” in one storm.

ofc I’ll grade my outlook based on my original forecast, so it’s probably not going to earn an A. 

1982-83 also featured one biggie as well.  That was truly a one and done season.  February 10-12th 1983 to be exact. 

[IronTy]

JB just posted about how the upcoming period has the most severe cold potential of any period he's seen in years.  Finally some good news that you can take to the bank, guaranteed.  

[anotherman]

JB just posted about how the upcoming period has the most severe cold potential of any period he's seen in years.  Finally some good news that you can take to the bank, guaranteed.  

[cbmclean]

2 minutes ago, IronTy said:

JB just posted about how the upcoming period has the most severe cold potential of any period he's seen in years.  Finally some good news that you can take to the bank, guaranteed.