Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming

[IronTy]

17 minutes ago, stormy said:

Whether its the 4th or 7th or the 13th. The amount of gloom is amazing.  50 years ago before all the nonsense with models, folks didn't worry about all of this crap, and it occasionally snowed.

The historical sweet time has always been Jan. 15 to Mar. 15.  Considering all the possibilities I don't believe we will be disappointed.  Many will be hilariously happy with 5".  We don't need 18 inches. 

Chalk it up to another thing the Internet has ruined 

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Do you believe if we had a neutral or slightly positive PDO phase this winter, things would have been different? Do you think we will ever see a +PDO again? It seems like a latch key for any decent snow chances in these parts.

Yea and yes, but we managed snowy winters in previous -pdo cycles. They were worse than +pdos but not nearly as bad as this current one.   

[nj2va]

At 120, there’s more interaction with the NS vort at 500.  Ridge over the mountain west a bit higher this run too.  

ETA:  Not gonna do it.  Mountains get decent upslope from the NS vort/low.

[NorthArlington101]

3 minutes ago, nj2va said:

At 120, there’s more interaction with the NS vort at 500.  Ridge over the mountain west a bit higher this run too.  

Nice to see - but ultimately slides offshore. Not close to cold enough either. We'll see if the ens can do any better.

[TJ3]

32 minutes ago, stormy said:

Whether its the 4th or 7th or the 13th. The amount of gloom is amazing.  50 years ago before all the nonsense with models, folks didn't worry about all of this crap, and it occasionally snowed.

The historical sweet time has always been Jan. 15 to Mar. 15.  Considering all the possibilities I don't believe we will be disappointed.  Many will be hilariously happy with 5".  We don't need 18 inches. 

The first paragraph of the above might be the best thing ever written about snow on this board.

[fujiwara79]

I think the winter of 19/20 had that north pacific death ridge.  once you see that, it's over.  good luck with getting that beast to move.

[NorthArlington101]

Also thought the 18z ICON looked interesting at the end of its run (hr120)

[nj2va]

5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Nice to see - but ultimately slides offshore. Not close to cold enough either. We'll see if the ens can do any better.

Maybe we can get that storm to bomb out and act as a 50/50 low for the next wave incoming.

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z GFS, to my untrained eye, midweek storm close to a phase

[CAPE]

HH GFS time...

The possible 'event' for the 4th is out of sync in the upper level as the NS vorticity is on top of/behind the southern wave(no phase until way offshore). The orientation of the trough is positively tilted as it passes overhead. That one may be dead at this point without significant changes in timing.

[NorthArlington101]

18z GFS substantially colder at the surface this run… can see it translating with snow in the SE. you’d think incoming but we’ll see.

lol suppressed

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GFS, to my untrained eye, midweek storm close to a phase

Not really close no.

 

[nj2va]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

18z GFS substantially colder at the surface this run… can see it translating with snow in the SE. you’d think incoming but we’ll see.

lol suppressed

It gave MS snow on that run lol.  Let’s see what the ensembles show.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

5 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GFS, to my untrained eye, midweek storm close to a phase

Nice to see the 540 line barely getting here in January as dark purple on that map.  TT must use 91-20 averages. 

[NorthArlington101]

It gave MS snow on that run lol.  Let’s see what the ensembles show.

I was about to type something snarky about moving to Jackson, MS if you want to see snow in the current base state

[NorthArlington101]

Don’t see a Great Lakes low… steps toward a 50/50 low… issue that time seemed to be confluence. Cold looked better.

Lot of ways to fail

[nj2va]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Don’t see a Great Lakes low… steps toward a 50/50 low… issue that time seemed to be confluence. Cold looked better.

Lot of ways to fail

Yeah that was some strong confluence in NE, was about to post about the same.  I don’t hate where we sit 200 hours out though.

[CAPE]

31 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

18z GFS substantially colder at the surface this run… can see it translating with snow in the SE. you’d think incoming but we’ll see.

lol suppressed

Not far off.  Pretty favorable look. A bit more spacing relative to the (would be) 50-50 low/a bit less confluence underneath of it might do the trick.

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

15 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Not far off.  Pretty favorable look. A bit more spacing relative to the (would be) 50-50 low/a bit less confluence underneath it might do the trick

GOA ridge, WC trough, ridge overtop here in the east.. no way.  bluewave posted something where most of our snows since 09-10 have happened with a ridge in the West as the most dominate N. Hemisphere feature (for NYC at least). 

[CAPE]

9 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

GOA ridge, WC trough, ridge overtop here in the east.. no way.  bluewave posted something where most of our snows since 2013 have happened with a ridge in the West as the most dominate N. Hemisphere feature (for NYC at least). 

Okay Chuck

[CAPE]

Y'all heard it. The 7th is a no go. Find something else to do.

[stormtracker]

28 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

.

Lot of ways to fail

And we damn sure will find it 

[NorthArlington101]

The 4th event is begging to be put out of its misery but the 18z GEFS has about 5/30 interesting members… similar proportion as the EPS which had like 10/50.

Someone merciful would’ve pulled the plug by now

[cbmclean]

33 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Nice to see the 540 line barely getting here in January as dark purple on that map.  TT must use 91-20 averages. 

I understand the significance of the 540 thickness line.  But that is the 540 height line.  Why is that highlighted?

[psuhoffman]

14 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Okay Chuck

There is plenty of time for it to change, but he is correct that the wave spacing as shown on that run won't work.  

[psuhoffman]

53 minutes ago, fujiwara79 said:

I think the winter of 19/20 had that north pacific death ridge.  once you see that, it's over.  good luck with getting that beast to move.

It did but it also had a raging positive AO.  That combo is flatline to our winter snow chances.  That's why I called TOD on the winter before New Years that year.  It was over before it started.  With a -AO there is slightly more variability to the pattern.  It will dump cold into the CONUS but always to our west.  It's a frustrating pattern because it will tease us in the long range but without a mechanism to suppress the storm track (the NAO there is more a WAR than a block) almost any amplified storm will cut west of us no matter what it shows day 10-15.  We probably end up with some snow from some random progressive waves or a secondary development after a rainstorm.  It's not a seasonal shutout kinda look that it would be if the AO was positive, but its definitely not a good look or one that could lead to an above avg snowfall year.  

[psuhoffman]

@stormtracker @CAPE @WxUSAF @Terpeast @Bob Chill

Just a thought...what's your opinions of splitting this one thread into 2?  One devoted to pattern discussion beyond 10 days...and one devoted to specific threats between day 3-10.  Right now the two are lumped together in this "long range" thread and I think that can get annoying for those that are only interested in the analysis of the specific threats and don't want to have to deal with the super long range pattern discussions.  

[CAPE]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

There is plenty of time for it to change, but he is correct that the wave spacing as shown on that run won't work.  

If that's what he actually said I might agree. I mean, that's literally what I said the issue was. WTF you smokin?

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

If that's what he actually said I might agree. I mean, that's literally what I said the issue was. WTF you smokin?

That's how I took what he said...but sometimes it's hard to translate "Chuck" into human language 

Sorry for my mistake... 

[Ji]

The 4th event is begging to be put out of its misery but the 18z GEFS has about 5/30 interesting members… similar proportion as the EPS which had like 10/50.

Someone merciful would’ve pulled the plug by now

5 out of 30 is basically plug got pulled