CAPE Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 18z GEFS pretty much aligns with the damped wave idea on the op. Less precip as it moves eastward into the MA. Not awful, but defo not the 12z run. Just to reiterate, the 12z GEFS was one of the better runs for the MA for this window. Signal for frozen through our region was quite good for this range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 5 minutes ago, CAPE said: 18z GEFS pretty much aligns with the damped wave idea on the op. Less precip as it moves eastward into the MA. Not awful, but defo not the 12z run. Just to reiterate, the 12z GEFS was one of the better runs for the MA for this window. Signal for frozen through our region was quite good for this range. Yeah, it looks suppressed this run. Not the worst problem to have at this range though 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Appears regardless of meeting the criteria for an official SSWE ( u wind reversal ) just the fact that the PV continues under pressure and will likely remain weak is the main takeaway according to Tomer and Dr Lee. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 18z GEFS pretty much aligns with the damped wave idea on the op. Less precip as it moves eastward into the MA. Not awful, but defo not the 12z run. Just to reiterate, the 12z GEFS was one of the better runs for the MA for this window. Signal for frozen through our region was quite good for this range.What would change in just 6 hours in the ensembles world 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 WB latest EURO weeklies look good for late Jan. Early Feb. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 WB latest EURO weeklies look good for late Jan. Early Feb.They’ve looked good all year. Where is your snow? 14 1 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 3 minutes ago, Ji said: They’ve looked good all year. Where is your snow? Trying to be positive. Point is that it looks like it will stay seasonal around the 21-25 or so and then turn sharply colder again as we enter February. I would love one big storm. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Trying to be positive. Point is that it looks like it will stay seasonal around the 21-25 or so and then turn sharply colder again as we enter February. I would love one big storm. lol your positivity usually lasts for about 6 hours I think the idea of a great winter is over. Now are are 1983 2016 hunting 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 We know it is going to rain tomorrow and Saturday. Until these two storms clear the field I think it is very difficult trying to figure out next week. Sunday- Monday will be interesting to watch the model runs. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Real question: What good are the weeklies? Isn't that like...impossibly far out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Real question: What good are the weeklies? Isn't that like...impossibly far out?They have maybe 0.5% more skill than throwing darts. Mostly printing out old El Niño analogs from what I’ve seen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 They have maybe 0.5% more skill than throwing darts. Mostly printing out old El Niño analogs from what I’ve seen Watch us have a 95/96 next year when no one is expecting it 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 3 minutes ago, paulythegun said: They have maybe 0.5% more skill than throwing darts. Mostly printing out old El Niño analogs from what I’ve seen Honestly for the last couple years the best model has been the Panic Room thread. Basically just get your winter weather forecast from there and it's been pretty accurate. No fancy models needed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 23 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Real question: What good are the weeklies? Isn't that like...impossibly far out? They're good for looking at the northern hemisphere and how things could evolve. When I look at the weeklies above it makes a lot sense to me. Epo ridge still there but higher heights/pressure squeezing back into the NAO region. So the idea of blocking flexing after the TPV does the do-si-do around the pole and heads south again. Adds some confidence to my thoughts earlier about how we move thru the month. What the weeklies aren't good for is snowfall/storms or anything specific. I only use them to know whether to close my blinds or not. Right now they remain open. 3 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 27 minutes ago, Weather Will said: We know it is going to rain tomorrow and Saturday. Until these two storms clear the field I think it is very difficult trying to figure out next week. Sunday- Monday will be interesting to watch the model runs. We shit the blinds for 7 days as we reload and regroup. Plenty of time still and no shortage of chances. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 hour ago, frd said: We’re in the flooding possible zone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 10 minutes ago, snowfan said: We’re in the flooding possible zone. Yes we are. Flooded with winter weather that is…see how I turned a frown upside down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 18z control looks like last nights 00z thru 144. Op and control mirror each other for the most part. This could bode well for 00z… . 12 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 The next two systems are very powerful storms, and like WW said, I don’t think there’s any way to know what happens after that until the cutters actually clear the field. Maybe we get a better idea in focus once the first one reaches SE Canada. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 2 hours ago, Weather Will said: WB latest EURO weeklies look good for late Jan. Early Feb. Unfortunately not happening with that MJO phase 4 wave. The pacific ocean has been really cutting our winters short the last 4 years with a pacific firehouse, -PNA and the MJ0 lag in the MC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 They’ve looked good all year. Where is your snow?I envy your positivity. Truly. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Unfortunately not happening with that MJO phase 4 wave. The pacific ocean has been really cutting our winters short the last 4 years with a pacific firehouse, -PNA and the MJ0 lag in the MC. Meh, MJO impact is overrated. We’ve seen too many phase 8-1’s fail and phase 4-5 succeed to believe it’s somehow the end all be all for our chances to get snow. A factor? Sure. One of a many. But the MJO is always so overblown on this forum. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 11 minutes ago, leo2000 said: Unfortunately not happening with that MJO phase 4 wave. The pacific ocean has been really cutting our winters short the last 4 years with a pacific firehouse, -PNA and the MJ0 lag in the MC. I've been wondering about that. How are we getting the polar vortex to swing through during a strong phase 4? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 4 hours ago, stormy said: I am sipping on a Natural Ice right now. Whats your pleasure? so many great breweries near you - seriously?? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 hour ago, leo2000 said: Unfortunately not happening with that MJO phase 4 wave. The pacific ocean has been really cutting our winters short the last 4 years with a pacific firehouse, -PNA and the MJ0 lag in the MC. The same models runs that predict the mjo also predicted that look. You can’t separate one from the other. You’re choosing to believe the mjo forecast but not the rest of the output from the same run! Cherry picking. Besides the mjo is out of phase 4 by around Jan 17th. The mjo is likely why the guidance has a temporary breakdown of the pattern around Jan 22-28th. That’s the lag. A hostile mjo wave in mid January won’t cause February to be bad. Maybe Feb won’t be good but it won’t be because of what the mjo was on Jan 13-17th! It’s actually so ridiculous I honestly wonder if you’re trolling. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Cherry picking. Is it really cherry picking? More like turd scooping. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 hour ago, jayyy said: Meh, MJO impact is overrated. We’ve seen too many phase 8-1’s fail and phase 4-5 succeed to believe it’s somehow the end all be all for our chances to get snow. A factor? Sure. One of a many. But the MJO is always so overblown on this forum. . Precip/waves aren’t our issue. We do that generally well. It’s either cold enough or it's not…simple as that. I’m all in on tracking blocking. Without that, it’s a struggle to even get a clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 9 Author Share Posted January 9 Aww, look at the cute little pity snow on the GFS. I hate it here 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Doesn’t look like much, but won’t take much to create a follow up wave along that boundary either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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